No. of Recommendations: 2
Brian's arguments are worth noting, not that I agree with all of them. One I would like to quibble with:

2) I suspect people underestimate demand.ASian nations are quickly ramping up the incomae scale, and energy usage is following western trends. Even reaching half the per capita energy intensity of European nations (not even comparing to per capita usage in North America or Australia!) will demand more new energy supplies than can be produced by hydrocarbon resources. There is room in the market for more than one type of producer.

I don' have hard figures to back up my argument but the west has become much more energy efficient than it used to be, that's what increased miles per gallon is all about. That's what the new French requirement for energy efficient buildings (my OOIL story) is about. That's what new airliners and new jet engines are about. While the new pure EV in China (my KNDI story) will not necessarily be more energy efficient, they won't be burning fossil fuels directly.

Energy policy is not always predicated on fuel availability. In large measure, the Great War was about converting the British fleet from coal to oil. The First Lord of the Admiralty (Winston Churchill) said that taking Mesopotamia (Iraq) from the Turks to capture the oil fields was a legitimate war aim. The London Fog was a good reason to stop using coal to heat London. The Los Angeles SMOG was a good reason to clean up car emissions. The environmental destructiveness of acid rain was a good reason to remove sulphur from crude oil and other measures.

The Fukushima meltdown really put a coffin nail into nuclear power. While people thought that the Soviets were dolts where it came to human safety they thought highly of the Japanese. If not even the Japanese can make nuclear energy safe, well, that kills it.

My position is that I would not put money on nuclear at this point in time but it is a story worth watching.

Denny Schlesinger
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