Guys/GalsFirst I would like to Thank the following that have posted information that has allowed me to build a very simple frame work (Got this Idea from Bruce Brown) to screen for the next Gorillas and Kings that will capitalize on the build out of the Next Generation Network.A special thanks to:BruceBrown MikeBuckley IFindKarmarchampoux SaloonGal TinkerShaw TMainzer trenchrat Lindybill over at SIUncleFrank over at SIGeorge GilderNow I will not claim to be the most ingenious person in the world but, I really like Bruce's idea to build your portfolio around the framework of the Next Generation Network. I have put together a simple but, not compete spreadsheet of Companies and Industries that are building this new generation network. About the spreadsheet:I have come up with nine major categories for the new network build out this is still very rough. I believe these can be better defined.A few Stocks symbols in spreadsheet are now linked to MSN research. What I was thinking is to, link the stock symbols to the Gorilla and King Hunt project reports being developed over at Silicon Investor.I have included a column called on the curve, this is to track where company is on the curve. Early Market, Chasm, Bowling Alley, Tornado or on Main Street.In essence I was hoping through a joint effort we could create a dynamic webpage that categories, ranks and monitors up and coming Gorillas, Kings, Monkeys Chimps etc.What are your thoughts? The spreadsheet is located herehttp://www.neticus.com/users/msweeney/nextgen.htmThanks for readingski ya
Impressive work barefooter - well done. One comment: "on the curve" is a column I thought would reflect where the company is (chasm, tornado, etc.), rather than what it is (gorilla, chimp, prince, etc.). No?I think this a great start to what could become a treasure-trove of information - in gorilla proportions of its own. Tough to keep up with though...wish I could help because it looks like a worthy effort - regret I just don't have the time.All the best, Charles
Thanks Charles,Your right that should have been chasm, tornado etc under the column "on the curve" I guess I need to add another column " Current Status" Gorilla, King etc.Actually creating the spreadsheet took of 20 minutes and could updated again in about ten minutes using MSN screenerhttp://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp?Query=SV1QF234Z04L1000000000ZF115Z04L800000ZF121Z04L50000000ZF136Z04L0.1ZF156Z04L0.1ZF157Z04L0.1ZF107F157SL3F156MSZ01&Name=Flare%2DOut%20Growth%20%28Month%2DTrader%29&Tickers=10The toughest part is deciding which groups to included and where the companies are on the curve.Thanks for complement
Thanks for the link Mark. I wasn't aware of this program - will have to check it out for sure.Cheers, Charles
Barefooter - I LOVED your chart for the Gorilla hunt. I tried downloading it, but no luck for some reason. Would it be possible to send the *.xls file as an e-mail attachment? I'd really appreciate it. BTW, I didn't see RNWK, which I consider a very important software infrastructure play on the "Next Generation Network". Check out MP3.com's Beam-It service. You can store every CD you own on their server, and have it streamed on demand to any computer using (guess who?) the Real Player.Maria
Mark, Thanks for the link, I recommended your post. I was planning on developing a matrix similar to yours but you are already well down that road. The GG philosophy is new to me; I am integrating its tenets into my existing investment style. I was thinking about expressing the qualitative nature of gorilla competitive advantage in a quantitative (i.e. numerical) form. Do you think my previous post (below) has some merit? http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?id=1360002000165000 Although a rating system of 1-10 may be too infrequent (1-20 or 1-100 offers more 'buckets' into which one may categorize a particular TALC or PCLC), the idea is generally the same. It could be adapted to your 'On the curve' and 'Current status' columns. Do you think another column for the Internet/Godzilla/ ICARUS rating system may be useful? The problem with any rating system is that it is fairly subjective. What I want to avoid is discussions of whether (say, in a 100 point rating system) QCOM's CDMA TALC is a 42 or a 43. However, constructive analysis (to make a good case) is certainly welcome. Any rating would by necessity be an average or consensus estimate. Also, younger players with smaller (initial) market caps tend to have more potential 'upside' with regards to stock price - again, depending on their potential market, GAP, CAP, and other factors. Do you think there could be a way to rate these qualitatively? We all like MSFT and INTC, but the chance of these doubling within a set time period is much smaller, if for no other reason than their size (there is only so much investment capital to go around). This is much harder to qualify - in many cases this (as the GG points out) is historically underestimated. There would be an adjustment period to any rating system; it depends on whether the adoption is worth it in the long run. An unwieldy RS is more trouble than it is worth, but with refinement, might be useful (esp.in tracking changes in TALC/PCLC historically)Anyway, just some thoughts. I appreciate any insights you may have. Thanks again,Glenn
Barefooter,I am new to the Gorilla board, enticed over here by the likes of BruceBrown, king Rex and others.I must say, "WOW! That's a nice spreadsheet!"I have not yet read The Gorilla Game and know VERY little about this whole strategy, although it is very interesting.But, in short, KODOS!
Mark:Outstanding work.The toughest part is deciding which groups to included and where the companies are on the curve.And what about deciding what companies to include in each group? Do you find that easy?Let me know if I can help maintain this in any way.dtd
I am glad that somebody put some of these stocks into a usable spreadsheet that others of us that are still novices in GG following can look at.. I usually just lurk and watch. I have only posted on TMF twice before, but have been on Clearstation before this, when they went offline for 3 days, I switched to TMF and haven't gone back since!!Are you planning on updating this regularly? ie. is it connected to frontpage that will automagically update daily or something like that? I do however disagree with some of your choices for up and coming gorillas... which I assume the lower ones in each category... (like IDC) but that is because we are different people... I do like that you include them for comparisons sake though. The main thing that I get out of the boards is good investment 'ideas' that I may not have thought of on my own. And putting all of them into a table is even more helpful for me. My area of expertise is wireless, and I will be graduating with a Masters in May and going to work for Motorola designing cell phone IC's. I am very excited about it. I am actually surprised that you don't include MOT on your wireless section. They do have the most potential for wireless data devices, in my biased opinion. They may be scary because they are in so many other industries, but you will be surprised at what they flood the market with this year!! My current 'young' portfolio is QCOM, JDSU, CSCO, and WCOM (I know... but I still think it is coming back!!). I am fairly new to individual stocks, just started in October with CSCO and WCOM, and am still ahead with QCOM and JDSU. I actually bought these without ever knowing what a Gorilla was, just that I have exposure to these technologies, and I see them as leaders. note.. I don't own MOT because in 3 months I will be able to buy at a discount, and I am just waiting for that... I probably should go ahead and get it into my portfolio because these next 3 months should be big for them. I realise that I am rambling, but since this is my first post on this board, I figured I should let you know who I am. I have many wireless opinions and such but I they cannot be backed up very well with GG terminology, so I won't bore you all with them now. (ps. I am just starting reading the book, but with so many glowing reviews, I had to goto the board here, and this is why I don't know the terminology)thanks, I will go back to lurking!!rederic
And what about deciding what companies to include in each group? Do you find that easy?With the help of others here at the fool, SI, IBD and MSN is how determined which groups to place companies into. Maybe there needs to be a cut off such as market cap I don't know . It is my hope that others here and SI will critique with adds and deletions.I will post bi-weekly as I get input.
rederic66502I do however disagree with some of your choices for up and coming gorillas... which I assume the lower ones in each category... (like IDC) but that is because we are different people... I do like that you include them for comparisons sake though. IDC may not ever become a Gorilla but, neither did the King SUN Micro ( operates in the same space as Gorilla MicroSoft NOSs and OSs)I am not just searching for Gorillas. Kings are great invesments also.Like I said this is a work in progess maybe IDC will get dropped it's not up to me the majority rulesski ya
: Re: Bruce, Mike.....Hunting in the Next Generati
Barefooter,The spreadsheet is a great idea. I think you're on to something which will prove extremely useful in picking the Gorilla's in the next generation. When I tried to download the spreadsheet I got a Netscape page which said I needed a netscape plug in. I got it and than another netscape page came up wanting me to buy a product to facilitate the download. Do you know if it's necessary to purchase the netscape product or should I be able to download for direct use in Excel? Thanks for all your effort.
Thank you very much for taking the time to create this spreadsheet. I accessed your work once- and cannot regain entry. The message comes up that the page has been moved. Can you tell me how to get back to the spreadsheetThank You-Erin
First of all, I offer everything as suggestions only and if I say anything negative, please take it as an attempt to be constructive. This is a great board with solid posters. It's great to see people staying on subject, and avoiding the noise. The spreadsheet is great because while the individual merits of company x are discussed within these threads, the focus of finding industries with tornado potential will not be lost in the details. As for the spreadsheet, it is a difficult task to solidly categorize players in industries that are constantly evolving. Especially with multiple product offerings that span different markets.For example, In net subscriber management, Cisco has a product but not the market acceptance of others like Redback. Maybe Cisco should be listed once under networking hardware, and once under net management software. In this category they would not be the gorilla, but a 'threatening competitor' given their gorilla status in hardware.Also I'd like to see a category for streaming media. The category is relatively new so there are a number of companies in this space, with products that don't necessarily overlap (yet). For example, I don't see Real Networks and Macromedia as competing in the same space exactly. I'm trying out Macromedia's Flash myself and it seems great for outlines, flat objects, large polygon-based images, which is used in web-site design. RealPlayer video on the other hand is geared toward streaming captured videocamera images. In a sense they're bringing tv to the net, and the interactive tv companies are bringing the net to tv. I don't think those industries directly compete so much as we'll see a natural choice made by the masses for one device or the other (the set-top box vs. the pc).But from Macromedia 10-K last June: "A number of companies currently offer products and services that compete directly or indirectly with one or more of the Company's products. These companies include Adobe Systems Inc. (Adobe), Apple Computer, Inc., Asymetrix Corporation, Corel Corporation (Corel), Microsoft Corporation (Microsoft) and Real Networks, Inc. As the Company competes with larger competitors such as Adobe and Microsoft across a broader range of product lines and different platforms, the Company may face increasing competition from such companies." For web-site related video I'd say the key players are Macromedia (Flash) and Adobe (GoLive). Adobe (and Corel) announced support for flash technology, so that legitimizes Macromedia's lead in my mind.Press release here (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/000209/ca_macrome_2.html)Some additional thoughts. Unless I missed it Adobe's other web product AfterEffects apparently uses Quicktime for the animation rather than something of their own design. Also, the buzz with other web developers I've talked with is that they prefer Macromedia's Fireworks (haven't personally used yet) to Adobe's Photoshop (I do use). Fireworks is geared more specifically toward web design whereas photoshop was created before web design was a big thing. Of course, Adobe has other products but for those (like me) with crummy internet connections, just take a look at macromedia's site (http://www.macromedia.com/) and then at Adobe (http://www.adobe.com/). The difference is obvious.Rats, I ran out of time. Hope there's something helpful in this, I'll come back to the 'sheet later.
Barefooter, The spreadsheet is a great idea. .................... Do you know if it's necessary to purchase the netscape product or should I be able to download for direct use in Excel? Thanks for all your effort. When I get "excel" files sent to me throught email I just use the save link as on the right mouse pull down. This will save your .xls file to your current directory. I then open it with EXCEL. No other program is needed, unless you are trying to view it through your netscape browser. If I am downloading, there is no problem. Just make sure you have the .xls suffix on the file name.This works for me on a Unix machine, NT machine, and my personel PC.Hope this shed's some light on it for you, Barefoot. Don't spend money on something you don't need. Be foolish and invest it, using the spread sheet to identify the gorillas of course.My 2 cents,LuckyChucky
Ack!I clicked on the link mentioned in this post (http://www.neticus.com/users/msweeney/nextgen.htm) and the site told me (well, it didn't actually say it) that the Gorilla table was no longer available. Please post an updated link so that I and others can catch a glimpse of Gorillas in-the-making.
Best Of |
Favorites & Replies |
Start a New Board |
My Fool |