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In the name of shameless self-credit taking, I'm going to share with the fool community those of you that have missed my (now closed) BSC underperform call:

Underperform

Start Date: 8/1/07

Start Price:  117.82

Pitch by: DemonDoug 7/31/07 8:37 PM

Even though they have dropped 15% in the past couple of weeks, the news today (7/31/07) of a third fund going down is an ominous sign which is showing the BSC is likely to have more troubles ongoing. They will either lead the market down or if the market bounces back up then BSC will not be coming along with them as they get dragged down in the mud with the rest of the awful, fraudulent, greedy, unethical, horribly managed mortgage industry.

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I would now like to thank the 3 CAPS players that gave me a recommendation on this pitch.  I would further also like to thank SpecBear, who posted this blog in August of 2007.  Here is his predictions, and if you are wise you'll continue to follow his sensible advice:

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Bad money forces out good money, so almost everyone who's still playing the game at this point is in serious trouble.  The tech bubble was a minor event compared to what's coming.  And my view of what's coming is pretty dire.

- Most of lenders who deal in non-prime mortgages will die.
- Most of the residential builders will die.
- Several of the major investment banks will die.
- The collateral damage to other industries will be devastating.

---

Incidentally this blog was posted the same day my BSC pick was given - neither of us influenced each other at least on that day, although his blog inspired me to put a thumbs down on other IB's that I collected some points on.  The credit I give to SpecBear is for the highlighted bullet point; IMO the lenders and builders dying off was a given, even back then, and other industries being hurt was also a strong possibility.  What I did not see, and many others didn't, was what SpecBear saw, which is the IB's going down in flames.

But in conclusion, I give myself credit for making the right pitch, at the right time, with the right call, I rock, bet against me and the other finance bears at your own peril.

PS - Shout out to dwot for ending up with the high score for BSC.  We all rock! 

 

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yes those were excellent calls.... interestingly...  i would disagree with most residential builders will die because that implies greater than 50%... whether your looking at public or private we aren't even close..... yet.........

but the call that an investment bank would go under... yea, i never saw that coming... otherwise I would have been riding the red thumbs myself.....

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Great work, DemonDoug. This is why you are one of my favorites!
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props to you! nice call.

I wasn't  CAPS player back then so I couldn't rec you at the time.

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Bear Sterns was my trade of the year.
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Im there with you.  BSC in my blog. 1/28/08.

 TMF Quoted me..  Here. on BSC.

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DD,

I did think about dropping you and dwot as a favorites when I reached 5000 points and passed you and dwot in points. And your Solar Picks? OMG...what are you thinking? But then I remembered, I steal almost half my ideas and stock picks from you and dwot. :) Throw in some FB, SpecBear, GT, Everyday, Tenmile and Bent, I have an easy job.  :)

GS751 - good call and congradulations. DO NOT TELL YOUR PARENTS! They will stop your allowance or expect you to pay for college or something awful like that.

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DD, with Fed on full alert, willing to do ANYTHING, do you think the bottom is in, or more shoes to drop?
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Thanks Doug...  I do the close it out and reopen thing, you get way more than 100% that way...

I use the math of how the scoring works to my advantage, but it can also really bite you, hence the huge volatility in my score.  Does anyone else on here have wider swings?

And 3 cheers to GS751.  I win the high score, but he wins with the bucks in his pocket.

My withdrawal from the market isn't making me much money, but I don't think it is losing me money either...

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nuf: neither the dow nor the dollar has bottomed.

dwot: market timing on things up and down is tough.  I'm thinking about red thumbing CFC and BSC again but it's hard when things get that low.  I still think SPF and many of the HB's have much farther to fall. which leads me to..

floridabuilder: The simple fact is that without Fed intervention, all but about 5 public homebuilders would be BK right now.  As it stands, even with Fed intervention, recession is going to wipe them out, and there is a very good chance of 50% HB's going belly-up - your analysis is great for quarter ro quarter, but the year-to-year I'm looking at paints a very, very nasty picture.

abit: Regarding solar stocks, I started green thumbing them trying to catch a bottom.  What I was thinkiing is this:

I am bullish on the following industries, irrespective of relavence to the general market:

-energy (all energy, including oil, solar, nat gas)

-commodities (with special emphasis on silver and oil)

-tobacco 

I am bullish on the following in comparison to the general market:

-infrastructure

-water

-emerging markets

-swiss franc  (which is mostly a proxy for gold)

-butter, guns, ammunition, bottled water, flour

-"clean" or "green" tech

-trains 

I am significantly bullish on alternative energy that makes sense.  A lot of people like to bash chinese solar companies; there are definitely some fake companies out there that are leeching off the markets (EMKR?).  My hypothesis is that oil is headed for the 200 and possibly 300 level by 2010, and when oil gets to that level, what do you want to be invested in?  My assertion is oil producing companies and alt-energy companies are where you want to be, which is why I'm most bullish on canadian oil sands companies (proven reserves with increasing outputs), and if you can find a solar company with solid financials and management you can trust, that is a great place to be.

What I'm bearish on:

-dollar

-financials, insurance, real estate - all lumped together as the FIRE economy.  We are no where near a bottom here.  Think we've had a black swan meltdown?  Think again - when the market goes down by 2,000 and the ultrashorts go DOWN, then you'll know the derivatives system has been broken.  This may or may not happen, but we've got further to go downward.

-Incidentally, people were talking about Lehman being next.  I disagree.  I think Merrill Lynch is next.

-Bearish also on all fiat currencies, especially the pound (swiss franc and canadian dollar are the two safest imo, but still going down)

-service industries

-retail

-auto, toys, non-essential manufacturing

Florida: regarding homebuilders.  management, ceo's, they get paid off no matter what.  If the company goes down, they still get their 10's of millions in bonuses.  As we've seen in other financial companies, when the company is going down in flames, they pay themselves as much as they can as the burning sinking ship gets sucked into the sea.  A private builder might also do this, but since a private might be smaller, he can maybe sit it out for 5-10 years, and then start up a new company then with their own seed money.  Is ara hovanian gonna take his golden parachute, watch his company go down in flames, and then start another 1B dollar market cap company?  I personally think not.  Neither are any of the the other CEO's, just the way that the Bear Stearns CEO's aren't going to come back in with their own seed money to start a mega-cap investment bank. 

I know I'm missing a lot of other industries, but I'm talking about what I've studied and where I feel I have a comfort level.  If you go long on any financials or real estate, any gain you get get the hell out of it as soon as you can as you are catching rallies against a bearish fundamental trend.

Oh, and if for some reason, Congress actually grows a pair and threatens to revoke the Fed charter if they keep devaluing the dollar, watch out below on the stock market.  Otherwise the Fed is going to lower the FFR to .5% or lower, and what will that do to your dollars? 

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I was so premature red-thumbing the solar stocks, and I think there could be a couple big long term solar winners.  Right now where they are taking off is where energy is very expensive and despite the complaints, energy is still cheap in much of North America.  It is about 10 times more expensive where I am in NWT, and subsidized.  It would bury you financially if not for the subsidy.  I kid you not, $750 one month electricity and $500 propane, and that's with keeping lights off and heat down...
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DemonDoug, you said that all 5 HBs would be bancrupt if the Fed did not intervene. I agree with you 100%. Just like I agree that England would be defeated by Hitler if it were not an island, that Japan would be concuered by China if it never stormed in the Pacific, that Russia would lose the war with Napoleon if the Russian winter were a little warmer, or that Bush would lose in Florida if his brother were not counting the votes. But the whole point is that England is an island, it does storm in the Pacific, there is snow in Russia, Bush's brother does count the votes, and so on. Similarly, your argument about homebuilders is invalid because the Fed did intervene. :):):)
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Yeah I should I have sold my ESEA when it reach 15 a share

Don't you think they can continue to pay 9-12% dividend yield ??

 

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Now the dollar will go up and just who is proping up our dollar. We are bankrupt just read my other blogs. Soverin wealth funds will have to step in. the g-5 or g-7 bankers are manipulating the market in my humble thinking. They just don't want people to withdraw their money from the banks because the whole system will crash. If they can't cover city bank can they cover any bank? The answer is no they can't. Even if it FIDC insured. Just the cold hard facts. The country is bankrupted. Do the homework. With this week's bailout's we are stone cold broke in my humble thoughts.  Pay cash for what you want and does anyone have savings to get you through the rough time?
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Hey Demon - spectacular call.  Incredible.  And today's 96% pop makes your closing of this incredible call even more terrific.  Anyone who doesn't love CAPS, and the sheer beauty of accountability is grossly misguided.  Pick a place in Hollywood and the beer's on me.

Best,

Hollywood 

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Yes well it would have been an even better pick if i had waited until today to re-down BSC as opposed to the end of last week.  It is absolutely disgusting, it's communistic/fascist what the Fed and our government is allowing in manipulating this market. 
Thank you Comrade Bernanke, you freaking bastard.
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DD,

Good post, as always. We are 80% aligned, I am on the sidelines with oil and gold, due to my fear of deleveraging. But I may accumulate hard assets on dips. Great repost of SpecBear.

Until I discovered CAPS, I thought I was alone in my Bearish beliefs, here I see many of the Top Players are like minded.  

FYI - of interest electric motorcycles and cars are inbound

http://electricmotorcycles.net/modules/wordpress/

I saw one of these at the libary last week: 

http://www.electric-bikes.com/cars/index.html 

 

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FYI - Conversion Kits For Trucks:  

http://www.canev.com/KitsComp/S10Kit/S10-Kit.html

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I earned my bankruptcy charm off of BSC.  Shorted at around $60 and closed er down below $5 after the original JPM offer of $2 per share.  Of course, then I got greedy and reloaded the short thinking $5 per share?  They were just bought for $2 so why so high a price.  It jumped to over $10 at that point and I gave back most of the points I earned on the way down.  I get to keep the bankruptcy charm though.  I like the way it looks next to the score leader charm.
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When stuff gets more in the clear I am actually gonna look at JPM as going long.  Morgan Stanley is the next big bank to be screwed. 
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GS: I still say Merrill Lynch is the next one to go. I saw a chart once of all the leverage these IB's have and it is ugly, ugly, ugly.
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Here's a scary thread to read. When your right your right.
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