No. of Recommendations: 73
I've been telling myself not to post this. Why? Saul's defensiveness! Saul's record is superb, that's defense enough. Let the record speak for Saul.

I've been through two bust bubbles 2000 and 2008. In 2000 several of my stocks fell 100% -- bankrupt -- never to recover -- they were NOT dot coms! In 2008 some fell 90% and just limped along after that. For me 2008 was truly a Black Swan because I really did think that securitizing was safe. I still think it is at the first round but securitizing further rounds is not because the risk is incalculable.

But the world did not end in 2000 or in 2008, we are still here and now better than ever! BTW, 2002 and 2009 were terrific buying opportunities thanks to bust bubbles! In 2002 Tinker and I loaded up on ARMH very close to the bottom after ARMH fell 40 or 60% in ONE DAY at the end of September 2002!

What's my point? We need to learn what is sturdy enough to resist a bust and what is speculative. BTW, I disagree with AD that price makes stocks speculative, high price, high valuation makes them risky, not speculative. There is a difference. I believe that understanding the business model and how it fits into the wider economy is key in finding sturdy stocks. Nvidia might drop in a crash but it will survive like Intel and Arm Holdings did because they were woven it the fabric of the digital economy, there was no substitute for them and they were needed. I wrote a piece on SolarCity saying that the business model was unsustainable and on cue they went broke -- not sturdy.

It has nothing to do with Saul. It has nothing todo with SaaS. It has to do with the survivability of the business in times of extreme stress.

Denny Schlesinger
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