No. of Recommendations: 3
But I contend that, by their very nature (software as a service just one click away), the growth phase will flame out far, FAR faster than the growth phases of famous companies that actually manufactured and distributed physical "stuff". It takes quite a bit more time to manufacture, advertise, distribute and penetrate large markets...many years, even decades. Not so with the SaaS players. They can satisfy their TAMs (I find most estimates to be specious) in a blink of an eye depending on word of mouth. When it comes to software, word spreads fast, very fast.


The duration of the "S" curve is the duration of the technology. The "S" curve itself is made up of three equal length parts with the fast growth middle section accouting for one third.

Relational database (SQL)

A relational database is a digital database based on the relational model of data, as proposed by E. F. Codd in 1970.[1] A software system used to maintain relational databases is a relational database management system (RDBMS). Virtually all relational database systems use SQL (Structured Query Language) for querying and maintaining the database.[2]

Assuming that NoSQL will dethrone SQL by 2030 the relational database has a total lifetime of 60 years with the middle 20 being the best time to invest. Please note that the "S" curve applies to the technology, not the stock price of any particular company.

Based on the above, Oracle should have been a great investment 1990-2010. Let's check the chart!

I would expect base technologies like NoSQL and Flash Storage to be good for at least a decade or two.

Denny Schlesinger
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