Skip to main content
No. of Recommendations: 4
But if he uses the published actuarial number of 104 for males, the published inflation-rate of 9.07% (pre-‘82 method), published gains numbers (look it up), and published tax numbers (ditto),

Using the SSA life tables for 2006, a 75 year old male has a life expectancy of just over 10 years (1 in 700 of making it to 104) so thanks for the extra years.

John Williams and the shadow stats-- yea, currently running about 9-10% using that methodology which of course since it is on the internet is accurate. Think his average since 82 using that methodology has been around 7%. Personally, think the old method had its flaws as well and think 5% is about the (truth) average.

Published gains - Schiller seems like a good source so will go with 5.2% as the 10 year government bond average since the real market crash (29)

Published tax numbers (New I should have bought some muni's) an effective rate of 18% is about appropriate -

And don't forget Social Security.. I mean I am 75 and it is solvent until like 2042--- So

Lets use: I make it to 110 (I'd be the first in my family to hit that mark 30% above), Inflation is 7% (40% above my experience), returns are 3.2% (40% below the average and WAY below my experience) Taxes are 25% (40% above reality) and no social security.....So all numbers jacked up 30-40% from experience seems really conservative.

You have me dying broke - my run shows me making it to 110 still leaving about a million - which ain't much but would buy a nice casket.

The answer is “Yes” provided he never spends a penny more (adjusted for inflation) and he doesn’t exceed his average, maximum life expectancy.

Looks to me like I have a ton of extra to spend - and for sensitivity - move any one of these numbers back to the realm of reality....and I am leaving the world at 104 with MILLIONS - Or, using what are realistic numbers, me and the waitress can spend 150000 inflation adjusted each year and I make it to 94 like Alfred the Butler!

Yes - the model blows up if you use 9% inflation - 2% returns - living 20 extra years and paying 40% more tax.
Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.