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But it would be ironic if it turned out most of us were already infected making the vaccine superfluous.

While I realize this is anecdotal, where I work, we’ve been doing surveillance testing for four months. This has involved more than 10K tests weekly and those identified are quarantined and re-tested. Those people who are in contact with many others as part of their jobs are repeatedly tested. The positive percentage is fairly low, from much < 1% up to about 2% maximum. The people come from a reasonably wide geographic radius (~40 miles for about 95%) and are from all major demographics and walks of life.

This testing seems to suggest we’re not that close to herd immunity, at least in my area.

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