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At the risk of going off topic for this board - I think it's totally irresponsible for the government, financial community and media to not only urge people to buy stocks but to make predictions about where the DOW will be 12-18 months from now like our treasury secretary did. The second message in the link below contains a letter that expresses my feelings very well. I copied it and sent it to CNBC letting them know that I agree with it along with a comment chastising Maria for making a rally prediction yesterday.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=1eca4bf74a39943d338c7157f82c09b2&threadid=2241

Jeff
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Part of me agree with you, part of me doesn't. We all know the 1st part. Here is the simple other part.

Specail time needs special measures. I believe this is the special time. If you say that before last Tuesday, I'd agree with you totally. The main purpose of a government is to maintain a stable condition at the time like this. We're the world leader in many way. All eyes are on us. Now, they are watchng our market closely. If we were panic and had very serious selloff, there is nothing coming out of it at all and the world would suffer more. Yes, let the market determine its way -- I'd totally agree to that if this incident did not happen. However, it did! :-( The world is united to try stablizing as much as possible. All the world leaders are feeling the same way as we do.

One has to be in it to feel the real pain. We're in it. We don't need anything more than stable conditions at this time. We should try to comfort each other. The government is doing its part for this special time. We can do our part by doing good job at our position, helping others....

Buy, buy at the dip. :-)

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Maybe you didn't read my whole message and the letter. It's one thing for them to inject cash into the system and lower interest rates. It's another for them to tell people to buy and also tell them the market will go up soon when they have no idea what will happen with the economy and the war in the near and not so near future.
Jeff
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Part of me agree with you, part of me doesn't. We all know the 1st part. Here is the simple other part.

Specail time needs special measures. I believe this is the special time. If you say that before last Tuesday, I'd agree with you totally. The main purpose of a government is to maintain a stable condition at the time like this. We're the world leader in many way. All eyes are on us. Now, they are watchng our market closely. If we were panic and had very serious selloff, there is nothing coming out of it at all and the world would suffer more. Yes, let the market determine its way -- I'd totally agree to that if this incident did not happen. However, it did! :-( The world is united to try stablizing as much as possible. All the world leaders are feeling the same way as we do.

One has to be in it to feel the real pain. We're in it. We don't need anything more than stable conditions at this time. We should try to comfort each other. The government is doing its part for this special time. We can do our part by doing good job at our position, helping others....

Buy, buy at the dip. :-)


If others don't support why should I be left holding the bag just because I feel it is the right thing to do. I'd rather sell then give me money to a cause--rather than lose it to some other trader outright. The point is...regardless of anyone's good intentions the market will go to where it seeks equilibrium in a fair price. The fair price of airline stocks are much lower. Unfortunately, this is the case--to hold an airline stock to me just wouldn't be a good idea even after it has lost 40% of its value. Shorting it may not be a nice thing to do--but it will still find the same equilibrium point imo--just maybe a little faster.

Eric
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I like any good part of what you said and any good part of what good our government can do for all of us in a bigger scale.

Most pple are LTBH(majority of them are w/ many years of holdings in their minds). Many years later, the market will be better than the aftermath conditions and it has been shown over and over again. Pple have extra money to spare and have LTBH can consider some conditions in their attemps. It'd be ill advice to buy at any conditions. I trust pple know how much they can do and what to choose. They mentioned 12~18 months which may not be out of line according to the following chart (of course, none knows the future, :-)

http://www.webdesigns1.com/mycharts/display.php?p=18&u=derek&a=Derek's%20Charts&id=4

Again, the timing is not bad. The world is united for the same course.

BTW, we talk about this, just the subject and nothing personal at all.
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<<We can do our part by doing good job at our position, helping others....>>

Eric, my sentence above coverS most of what you said, just in a very brief form, :-) My other posts covers the part of doing good things. And LTBH and those who have extra $$ are in their consideration. They shoud put that in bold print. :-)

~~~~~~~~~~

<If others don't support why should I be left holding the bag just because I feel it is the right thing to do. I'd rather sell then give me money to a cause--rather than lose it to some other trader outright. The point is...regardless of anyone's good intentions the market will go to where it seeks equilibrium in a fair price. The fair price of airline stocks are much lower. Unfortunately, this is the case--to hold an airline stock to me just wouldn't be a good idea even after it has lost 40% of its value. Shorting it may not be a nice thing to do--but it will still find the same equilibrium point imo--just maybe a little faster.

Eric
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Eric, my sentence above coverS most of what you said, just in a very brief form, :-) My other posts covers the part of doing good things. And LTBH and those who have extra $$ are in their consideration. They shoud put that in bold print. :-)

I agree. Our patriotism can be shown by helping others =).

Eric
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No. of Recommendations: 12
Any market manipulation, even with the best intentions, invokes the law of unintended consequences. The markets will respond to the laws of supply and demand, and no one can change that.

While the little folks are being told to be patriotic, what do you think the institutions are doing? And who do you think they are doing it to? ;-)

Alan
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Agree with the first part but I don't think a lot of the institutions have been purposefully raping the little guy this week. I don't deny the fact that it is terrible for the media to mislead the little guy/average American (most of the patriotic rally bit has been pumped by media....some by the street but mostly media). It's pretty absurd to think that my 500 shares is going to make a market and I think most smart public money is following market trends not trying to make them. Back to the point...Yes there is a lot of liquidation and short selling going on but I don't think a whole lot of managers or makers are out to screw anybody after all that's happened recently. I don't think anyone making markets would consciously promote a strategy that they themselves weren't going to follow. Smart money knew what was going to happen Monday (or at least had a bias and acted on price/vol)and was prepared for it. I think there may even be a bit of pride involved with institutional money in the market right now. Maybe I'm a little naive but that's the way I've seen the past couple of days.

Great book Alan. Wish you would appear here more often. Start a folder.
http://www.webdesigns1.com/mycharts/

Guess that wouldn't be PC though.

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<<Any market manipulation, even with the best intentions, invokes the law of unintended consequences. The markets will respond to the laws of supply and demand, and no one can change that.>>

What is the law of unintended? Alan.

Agree to the rest part of it. It has been said "specil time needs special measures". Our effort may help to stabilize the world at his particular time -- the world is with us. They understand it perfectly well. :-) So far so good is the result. Once it's stabilized, the market will follow its regular .....

<<While the little folks are being told to be patriotic, what do you think the institutions are doing? And who do you think they are doing it to? ;-)>>

http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=15765409

Most pple are LTBH. Years later, the market will be better than the aftermath conditions and it has been shown over and over again. See the link below for yourself, :-)
http://www.webdesigns1.com/mycharts/display.php?p=18&u=derek&a=Derek's%20Charts&id=4

Pple w/ LTBH in mind have extra money to spare can consider to buy after dips. Many pple are doing it. Many companies are starting to do it too. There may be traders among these buyers and many of them have made some decent profit today already.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~tchemp/temp/thankyou.html

PS We know that pple do not make too quick dicisions on money matter. Pple would be more careful at this time. I trust those pple are well educated and smart to make good decision at this time and will feel comfortable with his/her decision making.



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kingni,

I share Jeff's view that it was irresponsible of the financial media and some brokerages to encourage patriotic buying. I am at a loss and somewhat offended that you would quote my chart to support your point when I disagree with it and feel that the chart shows otherwise for traders.

How would any temporary and artificial buying interest in stocks do anything whatsoever to help the economy or anyone? It certainly has no impact on the economy. Okay, so MAYBE stocks will be higher some time in the future for those who buy and hold...but what does that have to do with traders who are reading here and in the Den?

I know that you are always cheerleading for longs and I think most of us are used to it. But to be honest, I really hope that the traders around these boards did not mistake you for someone who has a lot of good advice to give in this area. A lot of new bagholders were made on Monday...

--Derek
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Most pple are LTBH. Years later, the market will be better than the aftermath conditions and it has been shown over and over again. See the link below for yourself, :-)
http://www.webdesigns1.com/mycharts/display.php?p=18&u=derek&a=Derek's%20Charts&id=4


I don't know if you know for sure that "Most people are LTBH" I certainly don't. Even so I don't know what Dereks chart has to do with that.

I think the peopel who advocated "buying" on Tuesday were playing on the emotions of the tragedy. Everything I have ever read on investing or trading in the Markets stresses keeping emotion out of the decisions.

We know that pple do not make too quick dicisions on money matter. Pple would be more careful at this time. I trust those pple are well educated and smart to make good decision at this time and will feel comfortable with his/her decision making.

When people were asked to "buy" they were being asked to make quick decisions and to do that to show they are "Patriots"! That is making a decison on emotion, which I think the "professional" could have taken advantage of.

I'm surprised you would want people to loose money, that they may or may not have to spare, to try and "hold up" (manipulate) a market that was already in a down trend.

Jean
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Good to see more interest in this subject, guys.

First of all, you've not catch the key of my posts, "Stabilization" and limited use of the buys at dips for those who have extra $$ and have LTBH in mind. Nowhere shown about of blindly buys at all. Every post is limited by what is saying there. Extropolation and injection of your thoughtsto the spirit of the original posts is beyond the point.

As to Derek's objection to the use of the chart, that is unwarrented and unnecessary. Perhaps that is because of your having never had any paper published here or internally. The chart was used to illustrate the point that after certain period of time the market returned to profitable levels. Please spare your personal feeling or use it for better course. Many traders are also investors and that's an answers. There are lurkers who are investors too. We are not alone. :-) We know that anyone who uses energy in a positive way will receive positive results. Appreciate your concern. Traders know what to do about this. They do good job(long or short) and that is patriotic. They do increase the liquidity of trading. Those buyers help in this way and do more than that.

<<....trading in the Markets stresses keeping emotion out of the decisions.>>

Yes for most pple. For some who can use emotion in constructive way, they can benefit from proper emotion management like money management. This is just a response.

<<I'm surprised you would want people to loose money, that they may or may not have to spare, to try and "hold up" (manipulate) a market that was already in a down trend. ( Jeanwa )>>

There isn't anything about that intention. You may like to review those posts. It's good to have a board to discuss and try to help pple. Not interested in ranting for ranting statements. I don't think Jeff would agree to your kinda ranting :-) Show us some positive and constructive things -- I trust that you can do that. Add something that will help pple along this line, if you like.




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We know that anyone who uses energy in a positive way will receive positive results.

I really don't understand this statement. It sounds good on the surface, but is very general and hard to interpret. Not sure what you mean by “in a positive way,” but I know I've expended energy many times in my life with good intentions (wouldn't that be a “positive way”?), but my results have been anything but positive.

And if I had been online when my well-intentioned friend in Alabama e-mailed me before the market opening on Monday, saying she wanted to be patriotic and buy stocks, I would have done all I could to talk her out of that lame-brained notion. Her “investment in America” was more likely a donation to institutional buyers and savvy day traders who know how the market ticks and play it – as they should – for their own gain. In fact, in my opinion, our faith in the market would be shaken if we were to think prices do not reflect all there is to know about a stock at any given time – and pouring money into the market for patriotic reasons alone will only falsely inflate prices and undermine the system.

Would be much better to contribute to Red Cross or a New York City fireman's fund, help with efforts to reunite pets with owners, or go give a pint of blood. Or fly a flag, for that matter.

Deane (pup)
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Buying stocks to boost the economy is like smearing grecian formula on the mirror to make yourself look younger. The stock market is going down the toilet because the economy (earnings actually) is. If you want to boost the economy, take all of your money out of the market and buy stuff. Stock prices will ultimatly reflect your effort. Inflating stock prices does nothing to help the country or its economy. It isn't patriotic to buy overvalued stocks--just dumb.
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The point is...regardless of anyone's good intentions the market will go to where it seeks equilibrium in a fair price.

Absolutely correct...

TT
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Passing along an e-mail that Tony Oz sent to CNBC on Monday.

I spoke with Tony Monday night for several hours. He was on a flight home from Japan when the bombing occurred. He was stuck in (of all places) Honolulu for 4 days. Guess thats a good example of the law of unintended consequences:

"Dear CNBC,

Unfortunately, we as a nation suffered the greatest loss in our history to terrorist acts last week. My prayers go out to all who have been affected by this tragedy, and I wish that we never have to face terror ever again.

As a result of the terrorist acts, we all have suffered losses in various degrees. We are all directly affected by this tragedy and will be affected in the future. I have a friend in NYC who is not accounted for, and I was in the air at the time of the attack. My plane was diverted to Honolulu while on the way to LAX from Japan. I can't stress enough how fortunate I feel to be alive and finally with my family in Laguna Beach, CA.

The reason I am writing you this letter is because I am very concerned about the message that the media is sending out to the investing public. I completely understand the urgency not to panic the public, but at the same time I feel that the public is being deceived. I keep hearing guests on your show encouraging patriot Americans to support the economy and buy stocks. Unfortunately, this is a bunch of bull! Buying stocks does not support the economy! Buying stocks simply provides liquidity to the one who wants to sell. If you want to support the economy, you should spend money and not put money away!

Promises of long term come-back and price targets on the S&P 500 is no different than Henry Blodget and Mary Meeker recommending the now-bankrupt, or close to it, Internet stocks. There is no telling what will happen in the future, but we must not forget that the fundamentals for many of the stocks were not very promising prior to the attack. The big thing that has to be cleared out of the way is not only the no-visibility, but also the earnings pre-announcements that will start coming in next week.

In short, losing money because of deception is not patriotic. It is simply stupid! I have not heard one guest on your show say that.

As a professional, I am sitting on the sidelines waiting for more information to make educated investment decisions. My recommendation to the public is to do the same.

If you wish to conduct a phone interview with me please feel free to email me.

Thank you for taking the time to read this letter,

Sincerely,

Tony Oz"
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Alan, that's the email in the link of the first message of this thread.
Jeff
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<<We know that anyone who uses energy in a positive way will receive positive results.>>

<I really don't understand this statement. It sounds good on the surface, but is very general and hard to interpret. Not sure what you mean by “in a positive way,...>

It's in your heart, you know it. Like trading, the more one practices, the more confidence one has. :-)

This thread has covered the media and government as the 2 essential components. The following link shows how it was started and the subsquent comments.
http://boards.fool.com/Messages.asp?bid=115480&mid=15764838

There are certain repeated statements/quotes in this thread, like straight out of a textbook, which are good to review and we all agree to these. Perhaps this will strengthen trading skills in its way.

Some posters addressed " patriotic buys at any price " which none here have asked for at alll. And we do need to be cautious of this happening to anyone.

Anyone who knows how "stabilizing....." will help, please post.

Good to see ya, Alan. Your post, like inHim's, has encouraged more to participate in discussion. Come here more often. we all like to see ya. BTW, what is "the law of unintended consequences" ?

Still learning, always. :-)
Be well, prosper and happy
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Today is undeniable evidence that propping up the markets is a bad idea. We could have had the normal/healthy sharp decline and oversold bounce but looking at todays action it appears that a prolonged volitale decline is in order. Again, I don't believe that there was any malicious deception going on....more of just an honest attempt to cushion the decline, but as we've witnessed today and I'm sure in the days to come market manipulation is dangerous.....more dangerous than a steep decline. Buying and selling the open markets is the purest form of capitalism. Adding artifical mechanisms to the system (programmed buying, curbs, market manipullation) ultimately contribute to the demise of that market and the system as a whole. Our nation is in the midst of a great national tragedy. Let the markets have a chance to weep in sympathy with our human loss and recover in concert.
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Anyone who knows how "stabilizing....." will help, please post.

Still waiting for all possible ....

what is "the law of unintended consequences" ?

Hope the answer will come soon. Or may try somewhere else.

What a day.




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<the law of unintended consequences>

It's an old cliche resurrected for many good reasons in the last week. It basically says that, when you take action to accomplish one goal, you may inadvertently trigger a host of unanticipated reactions.

Alan
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<<the law of unintended consequences>>

It's an old cliche resurrected for many good reasons in the last week. It basically says that, when you take action to accomplish one goal, you may inadvertently trigger a host of unanticipated reactions.

Thx alan. It sounds better than first heard. :-)

<<Anyone who knows how "stabilizing....." will help, please post.

Still waiting for all possible ....>>

Anyone? There must be some. So many smart guys/gals around.....:-)

Still learning, always.

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Last call. :-)

Why the government is trying to stabilze the market and many pple and companies are joining this effort? Even though they know that the market is going down for a certain period after the events like we just had. How will this effort benefit vast numember of pple?

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Last call. :-)

Why the government is trying to stabilze the market and many pple and companies are joining this effort? Even though they know that the market is going down for a certain period after the events like we just had. How will this effort benefit vast numember of pple?



Ok, I'll bite;-)

Like what julie said in chat yesterday, it may kind of apply. If they don't try to stabilize, the panic selling from J6P could plunge the markets into the land of no return, so in a sence, the slower it falls, the less panic I guess.....I don't know K, I hate story problems:-)
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Our government(& others) is trying to stabilze the market/the world's. Many pple and companies are joining this effort. Even though they know that the market will be going down for a certain period after the tragic events like we just had. How will this effort benefit vast numember of pple?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OK, here are a couple of them. Hope some smart ones will have other to show.

1. With the stabilizing effort, the market would not drop like a rock which would cause some panic selloff. This prevents sharp decline in tickers prices. All those investors who want out will have the opportunity to get out of the market without losing too much. This will preserve good amount of capital for future uses and help the economy recovery. They can do more than just this, of course.....

2. With the stabilizing effort, the market will show more ups and downs since there are two major forces fighting each other and create many waves. This means more trading opportunities for traders and related business. The positive result will benefit more ......
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>>> "Hope some smart ones will have other to show."

Like the two you just gave? I hope not. They've got to be some of the most ridiculous things I've seen on this or any other board. I'm sure by now Jeff is sorry that he started this OT thread, and he's too nice to say so, but I really think the Den would be a better catch-all board for this discussion. You know where that is, right?

--Derek
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<<Like the two you just gave? I hope not. >>

Yo, young man, derek. ya're a smart and talented guy. Hope ya'll put energy in more positive and constructive way. The call is about,
<<Our government(& others) is trying to stabilze the market/the world's. Many pple and companies are joining this effort. Even though they know that the market will be going down for a certain period after the tragic events like we just had. How will this effort benefit vast numember of pple?>>
~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Lets see what ya've to offer, if there is any. :-)

Ya're almost starting to rant and as ya know that is not what inHim like to see.

Your mentioning of another board and ya, as many here, are very familiar with this,
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=14897617

In there, there are statements like the following,
http://fireboards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=15784495

Again hope to see some good feedback. (Thx steiv for his). for your convenience, here is the last one,
http://fireboards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=15783942

Still waiting, still hoping.....

Be well, prosper and happy.
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OK. Well both sides of the this argument have spoken their mind. If someone wants to try and support the market go ahead. I, for one, will sit on the sidelines.

I don't see any point in discussing this any longer. People have expressed their viewpoints and will act accordingly.

Eric
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