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No. of Recommendations: 9
In conclusion

(Original report http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13302827)

Without doubt there will be a home monitoring tornado that will rip through the health system (see original report). By moving the chronically ill home they will have a better quality of life, reduce the tax burden, free up doctors and nurses and allow health providers to become profitable. Every $1 a US health firm spends on a kit they save $4. Providing you agree that the product is OK ( and it's been with the Mayo clinic for 2 years and exposed to the practical demands of the job for much longer) then everyone will want one - so far US , China , Taiwan but more to come.

As I have described Cyber-Care is probably the only company that can network the home monitoring devices and certainly the only one that thought about using the network intelligence to save money and improve service. It probably has a 1 1/2 year march on any opposition but probably more, approvals, testing and re-testing in hospitals will see to that.

So what do you get for you $400 million company?


My ultra conservative revenues – calculations described in original report
 In thousands
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total
Xender Corp. 2,000 3,000 5,000 3,500 3,500 3,500 20,500
SIIC Medical 10,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 - - 64,000
Other US 8,000 13,000 15,000 - - - 36,000
EHC Year Ttl. 20,000 33,000 38,000 22,500 3,500 3,500
EHC Total 20,000 53,000 91,000 113,500 117,000 120,500 120,500


EHC Rev* 59,960 98,934 113,924 67,455 10,493 10,493 -
Networking# 22,000 84,300 169,000 243,150 276,250 284,650 289,200
Total Revenues##81,960 183,234 282,924 310,605 286,743 295,143 289,200

Revenues as per the AGM - in Mike Morell states they are well ahead of getting 100,000 units in 3 years.
(see below). But note you can check that they already expect at least 20,000 units by end of 2001 (from the FAQ link)

What does the revenues for a 100,000 EHC look like?

2000 2001 2002 2003 Total
EHC Year Ttl. 700 19,300 40,000 40,000 100,000
EHC Total 700 20,000 60,000 100,000 100,000

Revenues (thousands)
EHC Rev* 2,099 57,861 119,920 119,920 299,800
Networking# 1,078 30,800 128,800 263,200 490,000
Other 40,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000
Total Revenues## 40,000 108,661 268,720 403,120 809,800
CAGR around 100% 272 247 150

This fast growing company is selling the "other" revenues off and feeding the EHC revenues.
These are high margin revenues, the recurring network license is 3360 - net is 2400 or 71%.
While the EHC units have a 40% markup. However, eventually Cyber-Care will just get a license fee and will have nothing to do with the production.

Revenues Net of Cost of Goods (thousands)
2000 2001 2002 2003 Total
EHC Rev* 2,099 57,861 119,920 119,920 299,800
Networking# 770 22,000 92,000 188,000 350,000
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Total Revenues## 0 79,861 211,920 307,920 649,800

So these can be applied against the running costs of the company. These are ramping up to handle the expansion. The loss was 8 million for the last 6 months, if we make this 16 million for the year, Then double it to cover the expansion. We have 32 million is expenses. 48 million profits. With a current cap of 400 million I reckon that's a P/E < 10 for 2001.


In conclusion, Cyber Care is a company that has high barriers to entry and high switching costs. These may or may not become Gorilla like but they certainly have a good chance. In the mean time it's selling at an inordinately low P/E for a company which, using the management figures, has a CAGR which will be at least 250%+. Though, during the AGM he hints about more substantial orders so this could still be conservative.

Given that it is a world market that is set to explode. That this is the leader, and I cannot find anything comparable. That it can ask, and get high margins then this should be trading far above it's 6 5/16 dollar cost. It is only here because an obscure health services company bought a small private company and set about selling the unprofitable business off and focusing on this one product. Since then it has contacts with Nortel, the Chinese governments (note they did not get a Chinese discount), Taiwan, Yale and numerous health companies in the US. Happily it is up 600% but as I have discussed I think it's got a long way to go.

OK.. That's it.... If you want to discuss please ask any question whatsoever, on the fool CYBR board... It's awful quite for such a good stock.

Otherwise, I'm back looking at the Metro market.


Original Report
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13302827

All the negative points I can find and my thoughts on them
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13302154

Risks you take on when investing
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13324221

Legal Opinion on the CAL
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13328141

Cyber-Care describing their network
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13258927

Cyber Showing Gorilla Characteristics
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13302837

Canada – note they want to move all possible chronic patients back home… who will they choose?
Just another possible opportunity.
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13320152

China
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=13297597

AGM discussion - this gets updated with info transcribed from a guy called ShawShank
http://salliemae.tripod.com/AGM.html
http://www.ragingbull.altavista.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=CYBR&read=177940

FAQ - 20,000 by 2001
http://www.cyber-care.net/questions.htm

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