This fellow thinks so:https://quincyinst.org/report/nothing-much-to-do-why-america...the core U.S. interests in the Middle East are protecting the United States from attack and facilitating the free flow of global commerce. These interests generate the following two primary objectives for the U.S. military in the Middle East: to prevent the establishment of a regional hegemon and to protect the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.This raises the following questions: Does any country in the Middle East have the capability to achieve either of these objectives, or is any country within near-term striking distance of having such capability?The four possible contenders for regional hegemony are Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. To achieve the status of military hegemon, one of these states would have to have the capacity to knock out at least two of the others. To achieve this would require their army to possess at least five core capabilities: 1) logistics capacity to supply an advancing army; 2) ability to defend moving troops; 3) ability to respond to unforeseen circumstances; 4) ability to execute complex combined arms maneuvers on the offensive; and 5) ability to maintain control of captured territory.None of the four potential contenders in the Middle East has the requisite capabilities, and none has the plausible potential to rapidly acquire these capabilities in a way that would give it a relative advantage over its opponents.… nor can they close the Strait of HormuzCompletely blocking the exit from the Persian Gulf would be a difficult task for any Middle Eastern military: An attacker would need to routinely hit and disable approximately 10 oil tankers each day, requiring multiple successful strikes per ship, firing roughly 50 missiles per day. The attacker would have to keep its forces alive and operational in the face of defenders’ efforts to prevent the attacks.Despite alarmism about the possibility of Russia or China making a bid for regional hegemony in the Middle East, neither has undertaken a concerted effort to do so. Russia’s presence in Syria is long-standing, and in general, Russia appears motivated to expand its role as a regional mediator; China is primarily interested in expanding its economic ties to the region. Both have observed U.S. military misadventures in the region, and neither appears eager to repeat America’s mistakes. The threat of terrorism is frequently invoked as a justification for the U.S. military to maintain a presence in countriesMilitaries are ineffective at combating terrorism. The fly in the ointment Fewer arms sales would help sustain the existing multipolar balance i’m Not sure our defense industry controlled Congress would allow that.More discussion here:https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/06/24/symposium-time-...
The fly in the ointment Fewer arms sales would help sustain the existing multipolar balance i’m Not sure our defense industry controlled Congress would allow that.Domestic USian politics requires the US to have Israel's back, regardless what Israel does, so the US has to continue to try to control the region.Steve
Domestic USian politics requires the US to have Israel's back, regardless what Israel does, so the US has to continue to try to control the region.SteveWith changing US demographics that is changing also:https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/americans-largely-support-...”It’s not a huge surprise that a lot of nonwhite Americans can empathize and identify with Palestinians because of their own history of oppression and settler colonialism,” said Khaled Elgindy, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “The old image of Israel as David fighting the Arab Goliath, if it was ever true, is now completely obsolete. Israel is not the underdog anymore, and people realize that.”Sleepy Joe is receiving some pressure from progressive congress critters of color:https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/liberals-voice-displeas...https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/14/progressive-us-cong...
”It’s not a huge surprise that a lot of nonwhite Americans can empathize and identify with Palestinians because of their own history of oppression and settler colonialism,” Doesn't matter, considering the vote suppression project that is underway. Only thing that matters is money, and every candidate for POTUS makes his pilgrimage to AIPAC to pledge fealty to Israel.Steve
Completely blocking the exit from the Persian Gulf would be a difficult task for any Middle Eastern military: An attacker would need to routinely hit and disable approximately 10 oil tankers each day...That's pretty silly. Knock out one or two oil tankers in the Straits and all commercial shipping would stay away. Iran, for example, could do that easily.DB2
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