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Can't say I agree with your inflation prognostication but who really knows?

Who knows! It is all a guess. We have seen since 2008, Fed is quick to open the liquidity fire hose, but very slow, deliberate to turn it down. Even now, they are planning to keep buying till March. When they stop buying that is almost equivalent to 4 to 6 rate hikes, and they have talked themselves into hiking rates (so they may do few symbolically) and QT (running down the balance sheet), these are all massive deflationary things.

It is still not clear how much of the inflation is due to supply constraints versus structural (like wage inflation, housing inflation) which are lot permanent.

They may talk but may actually do less is my guess. Fed will do lot of FOMC, Federal Open Mouth committee.

Even if I am wrong, I am just tying up $20K. I am sure I can do lot worse than that. :)
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