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No. of Recommendations: 12
While I follow the picks on Saul's (very popular) board-
technical analysis is frowned upon and sometimes such 
posts are deleted by him or his assistants. 
Seems only sales growth, gross margins, and great conference calls
are considered as viable posts supporting their stock picks.
(Nothing wrong with that, though...)

But I think that technical analysis on the those
stocks/sectors that have such great fundamentals
should go hand in hand. Nothing goes up forever... 

As indicated in many of my previous posts, 
I watch the CCI - Commodity Channel Index-
of the stocks he's picked and the ones I buy.

If the CCI starts to falter, I sell. 
When the CCI recovers, I buy.

Some detail:

Zeelotes, posting on the MI board, made the observation that have
Saul's picks tanking recently (although some on
that board claim it's a good time to buy-- maybe.)

Saul's recent picks:
https://boards.fool.com/update-to-my-monthly-summary-3499304...

Zee's comments and his table:
https://boards.fool.com/this-table-shows-the-maximum-drop-so...

Symbol	High	Low	Max Drop
DDOG	$199.68	$152.82	-23.47%
NET	$222.00	$150.20	-32.34%
MNDY	$450.00	$263.50	-41.44%
CRWD	$298.48	$188.43	-36.87%
ZI	$79.20	$56.91	-28.14%
ZS	$376.11	$300.54	-20.09%
UPST	$401.49	$159.66	-60.23%
LSPD	$130.02	$43.95	-66.20%
	Average	Drop	-38.60%

All of the above had their CCI value drop
below 100 about five to ten days ago saving one from
wiping out significant earlier gains by selling then

For example-
Looking a UPST- one of that board's darlings on stockcharts.com

https://schrts.co/KVkgqxmA

This contains the CCI in the top part of the chart
and the same CCI behind the price.

You can see the effect on your gain/loss by
jumping in when the CCI is above or near 100 and
the opposite for getting out.

(Some like to use CCI 14,20,50 or even 100 periods)

If I (or you the reader) have time, I'd like to compare any other technical indicators
that might have given excellent in/out signals (SMA, MACD, RSI, etc.)
for Saul's picks.

Here, using the MACD does well too:
Histogram up: BUY, Hold
Histogram down: SELL

https://schrts.co/RDRkZPvf
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Buy when CCI goes above 100.

Sell below 100 or -100?
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No. of Recommendations: 6
4321rewq-
thanks for stopping by...

By way of extensive backtesting, no, other than
previous momentum posts here to find buying opportunities.

But:

As an example of one backtest, using DDOG, a favorite COVID-19 cloud stock-
you'd be up about 20% for 2021 YTD (and closer to a 100% after Friday's huge drop)
if you held the stock only when the CCI(20) was above 30.
That was the max as determined by Excel's solver function.
I suppose that one could use(code in) other periods for the CCI calculation and
then using a moving average of that index, but that's for another day.

Haven't set it up on a spreadsheet, but mentioned in previous posts,
when CCI crosses over 0, it's normally on its way up for a while and
when it crosses much below 100 it normally on its way down for a while.

Again, for me, it just another technical indicator to see if I should
act on a particular stock or move on to another one that has better numbers.

In some other cases a backtest did not yield huge increases, but seemed
to warn you of a declining trend. MSFT had four downturns in 2021, and
the CCI fell below 100 early in each of those cases.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Interesting. Never seen CCI before, thanks for pointing it out.

So what would the "rule" be? Sell if crossing below 0, buy if above 0 but not above 100?

I use MACD and relative strength indicators like Accum/Dist line, relative to the sector they're in ($DJUSSW), and the sector relative to S&P, in an "ok to buy" / "wait" decision system.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Replying to FlyingCircus on when to buy and sell using CCI.

I am sure that there are many tactics that one can use
but overall I have been using CCI(100) to look at
the "big picture" of a stock (vs. using a shorter CCI(20).

If CCI (100) is above 100, great- you got a winner; but it may not last very long...
100 to 0, so so (ok to get in on the way up but sell on the slide down);
0 and below, out for sure.

The above kept me in FB for a while, but used the above rules to get out.
(out by mid-Sept and still out).
https://schrts.co/nbEEFVHq

Same with TSLA- plug that ticker in and look at the chart.
Helps me to decide when to be in/out.

Yes, I do like the MACD and RSI and other technical indicators,
but another tool like this one
to support a buy/sell/hold decision can't hurt.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I'm new to CCI myself but have followed it over the past 6mo. The problem I have is finding candidates to watch. Free Screening tool? ETF's seem to have similar signals and are equally pronounced and also seem to have less risk.

For other newcomers like me this from Fidelity may help.
Russ

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
Oscillator


Implication
Description
Trading Considerations
Implication

Recognia identifies the following CCI events:

A bullish event when the CCI rises above the +100% line.
Another event signaling the end of the previous bullish trend occurs when the CCI subsequently falls below the +100% line.
A bearish event when the CCI falls below the -100% line.
Another event signaling the end of the previous bearish trend occurs when the CCI subsequently rises above the -100% line.
Description

Although the name CCI uses the term "commodity", the oscillator is commonly used for analyzing equities. A CCI is based on a comparison of price and moving average. The CCI is expressed as a percentage that oscillates between -100 and 100. However, these levels can be exceeded.

The Commodity Channel Index quantifies the relationship between the asset's price, a 20 bar moving average (MA) of the asset's price, and the mean of the absolute deviations (D) from that average. It is computed with the following formula:

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
Typically, if the price is greater than the moving average, then the CCI will rise towards or above the 100% line. If the price drops below the moving average, then the CCI will drop towards or past the -100% line. There are divergences and exceptions to this price/CCI behavior that technical analysts should be aware of when making trades.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
top

Trading Considerations

Technical analysts use CCI in a couple of ways 1) to predict a price reversal, and 2) to determine overbought or oversold conditions.

To predict a price reversal, compare the direction trend lines for the price and CCI. If the direction of the price trend line is different than the direction of the CCI trend line a divergence is said to have occurred, and a price reversal may follow.

The most popular way to use the CCI is to watch for overbought or oversold conditions. A stock is considered overbought when it is reaches 100% or higher, and oversold when it is -100% or lower. Some technical analysts use CCI with the view that an overbought condition precedes a price drop, and that an oversold condition precedes a rise in price.

Colby, however, identifies the trading rules for using CCI as follows:

Buy long when CCI rises above 100%
Buying long means that you are buying stock to own with the expectation that price will rise. You expect to earn a profit when you sell the stock at a higher price.
Sell long when CCI falls below 100%
Selling long means selling stock that you own, ideally, at a higher price than when you bought it so that you will earn a profit.
Sell short when CCI falls below -100%
Selling short means that you are selling stock that you have borrowed with the expectation that price will fall. If the price falls, you can profit by buying back the stock at a lower price and using it to replace the higher-priced stock that you borrowed. For example, if you sell stock for $100.00 per share, buy it back later at $70.00 per share, and then return the stock to the lender, your profit is $30.00 per share.
Cover short when CCI rises above -100%
Covering short means that you are buying stock to replace stock that you have borrowed. To maximize your profit you will want to buy back the stock at a price that is lower than it was when you sold.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
"If I (or you the reader) have time, I'd like to compare any other technical indicators
that might have given excellent in/out signals (SMA, MACD, RSI, etc.)
for Saul's picks."

I've seen Stochastic RSI 14 on a number of posted Stockcharts graphs that seems to be a good indicator. It sure would have saved me from watching UPST go from $350 to current $132 if I would have followed it's trigger of sell below 0.2. WouldA-CouldA-ShouldA
Russ
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No. of Recommendations: 1
RussDavis,

Try the following that could have saved your ASSets using the True Strength Index (TSI (14,7,7)) Slide the chart to the right to see all the ARC's and trade per the two (2) simple rules.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/UPST/interactive-char...

Simon Sez II. "Wait-one bar" rule signal ** by Quillnpenn 12/1/19

revised 12/20/2019

Re: Barchart.com


When an ARC aka Smiley Face appears, do the following:

1 ) For the TOP ARC, we wait and wait until the next day when the price drops below the high signal to SELL the stock.

2 ) For the BOTTOM ARC, we wait and wait until the next day when the price bar is rising upwards to BUY the stock.

eg....https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/QQQ/interactive-c... .. a BUY signal has occurred on 10/04/19. We are now waiting for the next SELL signal.

For the very first time when viewing a chart, the default will go to Frequency: Daily 6 months. You can change the months to 2M or 1M or any time periods that will make you comfortable when viewing the Chart.



** "Wait-one bar" rule signal is when the ARC appears, we wait for the next bar to the right to either rise or go down indicating a BUY or a SELL signal.

Example of a successful trade: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/CNX/interactive-chart... put your cursor on 12/6/19 as the buy signal and wait for a sell signal per the rules(rule 1).

On my other charts right out of the gate I would have had 8 out 8 successful trades with 0 losses.
Any stock that Saul has, I can have a better track and batting average than he. The first purchase was on 12/16/20 at 25 and change and last trade was on October of 2021. Buying and HODlering does not work in a traders market.

From your other list, SOXX since the "V" would have had 18 out 18 successful trades with 0 losses.

Peruse at your leisure - https://boards.fool.com/hp-34898276.aspx

Something to ponder,

Quillnpenn - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader for over 45 years.
------------ Vision - Multi-Millionaire.....Goal - earn 1.3% - 2.5% compounded Daily
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No. of Recommendations: 3
All good points raised in this thread.

It should be pointed out the all of the indicators
mentioned can be defined on stockcharts.com with example
Excel spreadsheets linked.

for instance (explanation and link in the text)
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicat...

Instead of eyeballing one stock over one time period and becoming excited at the results,
drop the raw data in the spreadsheet and see how adjusting the
timeframe and criteria affect the results over a 10 to 15 year period.
If your tactic works on many stocks over multiple periods of time-
try it with some real $$$


RE: CCI

To find CCI buy candidates (rising up from 0 &/or crossing over 100),
read up at stockfetcher.com
example code in their free system:

cci(100) crossed above 100
in the last 3 days
market is NASDAQ
price is above 100
volume is above 1000000
or
try to google search for "commodity channel index screener"

In my case, I have about 35 favorite stocks (the top 25 in FBGRX fund)
and 10 from IBD screens and look every so often to see what their CCI(100) is doing.

and I use

cci(100) crossed above 100 in the last 2 days
symlist (aapl, msft, ....)
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