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Consider this set of circumstances: Portable Wireless Broadband data servies will be a slam-dunk, but consumers might reject what we now call the handset as the client device. Next week we should see the introduction of new wireless Webpads, and web-pdas. If this happens QCOM still wins and wins big, and the handset guys begin a painful scramble for relevance.

Perhaps you should check out This is one company that keeps Bill Gates up all night, and it is owned by the "handset guys."
Yes I know about symbian, so what. They're just too small to be relevant. Samsung is the company that keeps Ericsson and Nokia up at night. AOL/Transmeta/Gateway are going to keep alot of people up at night. Palm, Mobile Linux, PicoBSD, yes its more than possible that we'll see a platform explosion.

Me:When a technology starts to becomes a cultural phenomena and then when its adoption becomes a cultural expectation the rules of the marketplace change dramatically. This is the risk that Nokia faces.

tlchiam:Where did that come from? Could you please substantiate those statements? Yahoo posts don't count!

I don't post on Yahoo, and I take it you didn't complement me. Nevertheless, I'm confused as to what your question/point is. This whole thread has been a determination/comparision of QCOM and Nokia as Gorillas. Estimates call for 1.4Billion handsets and at least 700m Bluetooth devices by 2004. (they wont all appear 1/1/04, the tsunami starts this X-Mas season). My point in this thread has been that QCOM wins because 3G/CDMA technology will be in those 1.4B devices, and Nokia very well may not. Prospects of 1 Billion devices is attracting alot of players. Consumers may decide the cellphone is not a good data client and choose other formfactor data only devices. If this happens its not good news for Nokia, and that is what I consider a material risk.

Consider historical adoption trends; radios, wiredphones, tvs, cars. At first you only had one, then two and now as many as you want. Most families, even those below poverty, have more than one car, tv, radio. I expect the same thing will happen towards the end of this decade. Subs will have a carrier account accessible by MANY devices. Most people will have 3 or more wireless data broadband devices. Heck I have 5 PCs in my home office right now. People who simply extrapolate Nokia's current market % on to 1+ Billion devices are in for a very rude awakening.

As per Nokia's history, you know of course that earlier this decade they almost went bankrupt. Superior handsets saved their ass. Their current advantage in handsets doesn't offer/represent high BOE or high SC. Two of the main ingredients for gorillas. Design and fashion are not stable sustainable foundations.
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