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From Reuters, November 25:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-emissions/chinas-co...

OSLO (Reuters) - China’s greenhouse gas emissions will increase in 2020 compared to 2019 as they have rebounded after the COVID-19 outbreak, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

“As of today, Chinese emissions this year, 2020, will be higher than in 2019, they rebounded,” Fatih Birol told a digital energy conference organised by Norwegian oil firm Equinor.

Regarding China’s oil demand, Birol said the IEA expected it to be “slightly higher” this year than it was last year. For gas demand, it would be “much higher” in 2020 compared to 2019.

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As a reminder, China is by far the largest CO2 emitting country, accounting for 29% of total fossil fuel CO2 emissions in 2019 (including Hong Kong).
From the BP Statistical Review of Energy...

Largest emitters, fossil fuel CO2, in 2019
Megatonnes CO2 Percent world share
China 9920.5 29.0%
US 4964.7 14.5
EU 3330.4 9.7
India 2480.4 7.3
Russia 1532.6 4.5
Japan 1123.1 3.3


https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/c...

It looks like China's percent share will likely increase in next year's report. US emissions will likely be down this year, perhaps around 10%. It is still too early to tell for certain, from the information I have.

- Pete
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China is still around half the Co2 per capita of the US, so another double from them brings us about even.
Alan
thinking a better metric is co2/$gdp.
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China is still around half the Co2 per capita of the US, so another double from them brings us about even.
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Meanwhile, the atmospheric CO2 concentration just keeps going up and up.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/mlo.html

That sort of "CO2 per capita" rationalization has been around for a while. The Chinese have used it, and other arguments, to justify why it is alright for them to continue emitting twice as much CO2 as the next largest country. Therefore, I don't want to sound like I am picking a fight with the poster. It is a common argument.

But in the end, the atmosphere doesn't care about these "CO2 per capita" or "CO2 per GDP" metrics. The atmosphere only responds to the amount of CO2 floating around. That amount goes up every year, with another large amount getting sucked into the oceans and other sinks. Bottom line: A little more than half of that CO2 comes from the combustion of fossil fuels in Asia, from India to China to South Korea to Japan, and including the developing nations in the region such as Indonesia and Vietnam.

Everyone has an excuse for conducting business as usual, therefore 2019 was an all-time record for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, and is also why the CO2 air concentration will hit another all-time record in May of next year, and the year after, etc...

The really funny (or sad) part is the people who think the Paris Agreement, or other silly pieces of paper, are going to do something meaningful to change the trend. Nope. People and nations will continue doing what is in their own short term self interest.

- Pete
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Problems involving the commons can be tough. As noted, without treaties each country will do what is best for themselves, resulting in a race to the bottom. The Paris accords had many agreements that would reduce the overall CO2 trajectory. The world will work together with, or without the US on this issue. Clearly stronger with the US involved.

Saying FU, I got mine is not going to fly on the world stage. Most of the world has a much more mature sense of fairness than that. The US has about 10% of the world population, so in fairness should get about 10% of the commons. It is unreasonable to expect the people in China to live in poverty while the US population runs around in SUV's. I think the best we can hope for is that China and India develop along a model closer to the EU than the US.

We made our bed with the example we set... now we get to sleep in it.
Alan
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Pete (waterfell) got this part right: The atmosphere only responds to the amount of CO2 floating around

And when you look at historical emissions by country to see who is responsible for the biggest share of the human-emitted CO2 up there, guess who dominates? Hint: it's not China.

https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2

"
* the United States has emitted more CO2 than any other country to date: at around 400 billion tonnes since 1751, it is responsible for 25% of historical emissions;

* this is twice more than China – the world’s second largest national contributor;

* the 28 countries of the European Union (EU-28) – which are grouped together here as they typically negotiate and set targets on a collaborative basis – is also a large historical contributor at 22%;
"

What can you expect of other countries when the richest country on Earth, and the one with the most cumulative carbon pollution dumped in the air, elects a denier on the issue who takes us out of the Paris agreement we'd negotiated and who took every measure he could to stop the progress that Obama unleashed (mostly unsuccessfully, thank goodness as the writing was on the wall about coal).

There can be no progress on the issue without the US leading the way. We'll get another chance to take the helm, to lead the world, in the next 4 years. Hopefully the following President won't be another anti-science denier to reverse course once again.
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The really funny (or sad) part is the people who think the Paris Agreement, or other silly pieces of paper, are going to do something meaningful to change the trend. Nope. People and nations will continue doing what is in their own short term self interest.

- Pete

====================================================

Well I disagree and and the following facts make your statement meaningless:

1. Why is America shutting down coal fired power plants and replacing them with renewables and natural gas when it is not in the best interest of saving coal mining and coal fired power plants?

2. Why is Germany shutting down nuclear/coal fired power plants and replacing them with renewables and natural gas when it is not in the best interest of saving coal mining and nuclear/coal fired power plants?

3. Why is France shutting down nuclear/coal fired power plants and replacing them with renewables and natural gas when it is not in the best interest of saving coal mining and nuclear/coal fired power plants?

4. Why is UK shutting down coal fired power plants and replacing them with renewables and nuclear power plants when it is not in the best interest of saving coal mining and coal fired power plants?

5. Why are China and India focused on adding solar power when it is not in the best interest of saving coal mining and coal fired power plants?

Jaak
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What can you expect of other countries when the richest country on Earth - Ben

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You ignore our $27T National Debt. It is like me living in a McMansion and am wealthy for all outward appearances but the dark little secret is I have a $10M balance on my Visa Card. If Visa ever stops raising my credit limit, you will quickly see how poor I really am.
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You ignore our $27T National Debt. It is like me living in a McMansion and am wealthy for all outward appearances but the dark little secret is I have a $10M balance on my Visa Card. If Visa ever stops raising my credit limit, you will quickly see how poor I really am.

This 'household budget' version of the national debt is fundamentally flawed. The important, key difference between the government's defict vs a household deficit is that We the People, the citizens and residents of the USA don't owe $27T to a profit hungry credit card company: we instead owe that money mostly to ourselves!

So to take that important fact over to the household budget, it's like you borrowed $10M from your E-Trade account, at an extremely low interest rate, to finance building a house and to float household expenses for the year while you build it. The money was yours in the first place, you've just moved it around, and the repayment is basically a non-burden and a neutral event to the overall balance books.

Yeah, maybe you borrowed some small proportion of those funds from other friends/family. Still the interest rate is extremely low and repayment isn't a burden.
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So, no, I do not ignore our national deficit/debt. Not in the least. But I look at it rationally, as a tool to be used and managed in a way to benefit the country as a whole, NOT primarily the wealthy and corporations, rather the PEOPLE.

Conservatives applauded or sat on their hands when Trump handed out huge, permanent tax cuts to the wealthy and corporations while running up a $1 TRILLION dollar deficit BEFORE COVID-19.

Rational management of the debt/deficit would have been to REDUCE the deficit during the economic boom times that Trump inherited from Obama. I'm not the one ignoring the debt/deficit, the REPUBLICANS, so called (but very fake) conservatives are!!!

Of course now that Biden is taking over Repubs will rediscover an obsession with the deficit, though NOW is when we need to use that borrowing power to try to keep the economy, and the people, whole through this crisis, and power forward with energy and vision into the 2020s.
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Thank you for recommending this post to our Best of feature.

People and nations will continue doing what is in their own short term self interest.

Fundamental Law of the Universe 23B:
Every organism from the lowest ameba to the smartest human will do that which it perceives to be in its own best interest.
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Fundamental Law of the Universe 23B:
Every organism from the lowest ameba to the smartest human will do that which it perceives to be in its own best interest.

=====================================================

Exactly - that is why humans now realize that climate change is a major danger and must be mitigated by weening the world from the use of fossil fuels.

Jaak
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Fundamental Law of the Universe 23B:
Every organism from the lowest ameba to the smartest human will do that which it perceives to be in its own best interest.


=====================================================

Exactly - that is why some humans now think that climate change is a major danger and must be mitigated by weening the world from the use of fossil fuels.

There, fixed it for ya'!
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Exactly - that is why some humans now realize that climate change is a major danger and must be mitigated by weening the world from the use of fossil fuels by imposing their ideas on others .

Jaak


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FIFY
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Exactly - that is why some humans now think that climate change is a major danger and must be mitigated by weening the world from the use of fossil fuels.

There, fixed it for ya'! - deseartdave


---------------

LOL, we both saw that it needed fixing...
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Exactly - that is why some humans now realize that climate change is a major danger and must be mitigated by weening the world from the use of fossil fuels by imposing their ideas on others .

Jaak

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FIFY

Defensive much?

CNC
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Defensive much?

CNC


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When it comes to liberty, definitely.
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Defensive much?

CNC

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When it comes to liberty, definitely.


I call BS on you, You are not at liberty to drive 100 mph in any city in the US. You are not at liberty to get drunk and drive any motorized vehicle. You are not at liberty to walk down the middle of Main Street naked. You are not at liberty to seduce children.

If you think any rules at all are intruding on your liberty, you should seek help, cause you don't belong in a civilized society.

CNC
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If you think any rules at all are intruding on your liberty, you should seek help, cause you don't belong in a civilized society.

CNC


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Who says I think there should be no rules. Most laws make sense and are necessary, others not so much, some downright in conflict with our constitution if you believe in that sort of thing.
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Who says I think there should be no rules. Most laws make sense and are necessary, others not so much, some downright in conflict with our constitution if you believe in that sort of thing.

Here's a news flash: You don't get to decide which are which. That's why we have courts of law.

CNC
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Here's a news flash: You don't get to decide which are which. That's why we have courts of law.

CNC


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Here's a news flash for you: We are talking about climate policy, in other words what laws and regulations ought to be implemented.

Here is a nuance: They haven't been enacted yet. So we are both expressing our opinion about what ought to be. I think many of the proposals are an impingement on liberty and would produce no meaningful improvement. You think otherwise. One thing progressives have demonstrated, they have no tolerance for opposing opinion. Groupthink for all.
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Here's a news flash for you: We are talking about climate policy, in other words what laws and regulations ought to be implemented.

Here is a nuance: They haven't been enacted yet. So we are both expressing our opinion about what ought to be.


Hmmm. I woulda sworn that the laws now prohibit using lead in gasoline. And aren't there rules on fuel economy? Aren't there emission rules on coal heating and power plants? Maybe I am just imagining things again.

One thing progressives have demonstrated, they have no tolerance for opposing opinion. Groupthink for all.


You are thinking of the Proud Boys and other RightThink groups.

You don't have to thank me. I am happy to help you out.

CNC
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Exactly - that is why some humans now think that climate change is a major danger and must be mitigated by weening the world from the use of fossil fuels.

There, fixed it for ya'!

=============================================================

Your fix is incorrect.

Exactly - that is why MOST humans now realize that climate change is a major danger and must be mitigated by weening the world from the use of fossil fuels.

Only the conservatives who do not believe in science think that climate change is not a major danger. Most of the people in the world believe in science. Conservatives still believe in fairy tales.

Jaak
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Let's cool down the temperature on this thread and keep the debate civil.

Fuskie
Who does not expect many minds to be changed in this forum so making the argument personal will not be constructive...

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