This is going on for sometime and the fatality rate is over 2%. The chiness new year is over and China is back to work and there is a higher probability that this spreads lot faster. It has already spread to Singapore, US and EU.I looked at my portfolio, whatever I thought I could sell, I have done that and raised cash. Still feel unhappy, so I added some SPY shorts on Friday and most likely tomorrow I may add some QQQ shorts. I am still not comfortable shorting individual stocks, so shorting indexes.At some point, I may end up hedging the entire portfolio. Still not there.
On the other hand, some reports say the number of new cases in China has started to decline. We hope that implies their efforts to contain and control the virus are starting to work. We hope the economic disruption will be brief.Similarly we have no reports of additional infections in the US. In 14 days, we hope the problem here is over. CDC will continue monitoring at entry points.I don't think its time for panic selling. We have plenty of time.
I heard a report on NPR in which an epidemiologist suggested 80% of infections go unreported and are non-fatal, which would put the mortality rate at closer to 0.5%.
I wish I had listened to myself and raised even more cash. Someday, I will look back this with deep remorse.
Patience is a very difficult thing for me. I've gotten much better as I've gotten older and realize most of my mistakes, mental or physical, occurred when I was in too much of a hurry (e.g., running up the steps, driving impatiently, etc.) so I'm better now.Like you, but for different reasons, I'm kicking myself a little bit since before the virus hit I thought the market had risen too much and wanted to take some profits. Part of it was due to the sizable tax hit I would have taken on some long held stocks (notably Apple) but paying taxes is better than losing money (I'm still way in the green on them).I don't know the actual numbers but I'm probably only down about 10% although it feels much worse.I've found that if I trim back a stock after it rises too far and buy back when it gets taken down due to the market overall falling (such as in late 2018) I can meet/exceed SP500 returns by a bit while keeping a good 20%+ in cash. I don't usually do a lot of detailed accounting but for a job I had to report financial assets for 7 years and every year was fortunate to exceed the SP500. You can't change the past, only the future.Rich
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