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I don't believe it but this article says different, They say we will catch Europe soon. This I would love to see! What's your opinion on this pretty well thought out article.

http://www.wired.com/news/print/0,1294,38317,00.html

Like they say in Missouri "Show Me"

MYCROFT
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Since none of us have access to the actual report from DataMonitor this is a non-story. Here are some of the show stoppers that have to go poof! before this story has enters the relm of credibility:

1) Receiving party pays
2) Tower of babble of cellular standards
3) TV stations own spectrum needed by telcoms for 3G
4) Coverage sucks in the most important markets during
periods of heavy usage
5) Unlike SMS with Europeans and Asians, there is no
significant pre-existing behavior pattern for
Americans using first generation mobile wireless
data services. People forget, SMS is the training
ground for subsequent mobile wireless data services.
Remember, every month 10,000,000,000 SMS messeges
are flowing across GSM networks.

I have to stop now. My head hurts just thinking about this crap.

-dugla



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I agree, Mycroft. That article wasn't really helpful, since it didn't say anything about how U.S. companies will overcome the barriers they face, specifically:

* The difficulty in auctioning off more spectrum for 3G use.

* The traditions in the US of wireline, as opposed to wireless, Internet access. People already wired through their PCs may not rush to wireless the way they have in Japan, where wireless web access may be their only web access.

Those are just the first two that come to mind, but I would have liked to have seen some discussion of those kinds of things.

Chris
TMF RFK
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Whoops -- next time I'll make sure someone hasn't already made the same points before I post. :-)

Thanks, dugla.

Chris
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Since none of us have access to the actual report from DataMonitor this is a non-story. Here are some of the show stoppers that have to go poof! before this story has enters the relm of credibility:

I agree that these are significant problems, but I also think that they may be solved over the next 2 years.

1) Receiving party pays

This is a major problem when the cost per minute is relatively high, but if it falls enough, then it may cease to be a problem.

2) Tower of babble of cellular standards

This is probably the worst problem of all because all the investment in infrastructure will eventually have to be scrapped as people demand access to the new services. (which cannot be supported by the old networks) AT&T Wireless is one of the major losers here.

3) TV stations own spectrum needed by telcoms for 3G

I hope the FCC can solve this problem somehow or find other spectrum at higher frequencies for 3G.

4) Coverage sucks in the most important markets during periods of heavy usage

Yes, this is particularly bad in New York City !

5) Unlike SMS with Europeans and Asians, there is no
significant pre-existing behavior pattern for
Americans using first generation mobile wireless
data services. People forget, SMS is the training
ground for subsequent mobile wireless data services.
Remember, every month 10,000,000,000 SMS messeges
are flowing across GSM networks.


Not a big problem, it seems that people in the USA adopt new hi-tech things very fast - look at the 50% penetration of homes with web access.
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2) Tower of babble of cellular standards

This is probably the worst problem of all because all the investment in infrastructure will eventually have to be scrapped as people demand access to the new services. (which cannot be supported by the old networks) AT&T Wireless is one of the major losers here.


I take a different view on the "standards" problem. While I agree that certain platforms make the task of upgrade more costly, I can't foresee any infrastructure being scrapped. While it may not be suitable for 3G services, it will not be rendered worthless. There's still demand for basic services, it's just a matter of the potential of this equipment to generate revenue as compared to the cost of upgrade offset by the new benefits. Just like our analog phone lines, there may be future uses for what some think is "junk". A more likely scenario in my mind is the typical phasing out over decades.

Just keeping an open mind...

Dave
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You should appreciate that Europe is not utopia for wireless communications. Peak time tariffs are a rip-off. 4 pounds/$6 for a peak time call with Hutchinson Orange. Then a lot of people like myself don't pay at all. 4 mobile networks in UK- Orange, One to One(deutsche telecom owned), Vodafone and BT Cellnet. Two of them, Orange and one to One offer unlimited freephone access(0800 numbers). With this you can dial out with a freephone number to another telephone provider(e.g.First Telecom) who offer calls at the same price as British Telecoms landline standard tariff. Vodafone and Cellnet know this and put a standard tariff on any freephone number.

Owning a mobile 2 years ago used to be good. Previously the low social classes never had access. Now everyones got one and the networks are sometimes jammed in densely populated areas i.e Network Busy displayed on your mobile. Now this is particuarly relevant for internet access via a mobile. On the current GSM networks data transfer rate is 13kbps. Using a laptop and mobile to make online trades can be hazardous. Whereas with voice calls being cut off is infrequent, with internet it is a very common occurrence. At peak trading times e.g. 8am and 4.30am it is difficult even to connect with an ISP because the mobile networks are so crap. When GPRS replaces GSM for internet access the data transfer rate will be around 40kbps. This has been delayed and when it does come out and becomes popular I would expect similar problems.

Any lead Europe has could be evaporated as the mobile companies are spending billions to get their srd Generation licences. Investment in hardware should be the barely adequate minimum. Believe me there is nothing to be envious of. You are better off worrying about your fuel costs this winter.
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I should add that it was £4 for a 15 minute peak time call with Orange
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