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No. of Recommendations: 4
It about impossible not to be hit with the "numbers" when we see information on the news or listen to experts. While I have had a bucket of math, I am not a statistician. I know just enough to realize I do not have a clue if one of the 3 currently approved vaccines would do a better job at preventing covid illness or keeping me out of the hospital.

My wife and I are part of the Moderna Phase 3 trial. We both got injections last September & October. We have been "donating" blood for testing regularly. During the process I have had a couple of 15 minute meetings with Dr. Evan Anderson. I asked him the obvious questions. Two points many people seen to not appreciate are:

#1 There had been 184 cases of covid among the 30,000 trial participants at the time data was submitted to the FDA for an EUA. If just one more person in the 30,000 caught covid the 94% number could move four or five percentage points -- or less. The number could go either up or down depending on whether the additional case was a vaccine recipient or a placebo recipient.

#2 The Moderna trial had exactly zero data on whether or not a person vaccinated could harbor/carry the virus if exposed to a person with covid. (Participants reported known contact with covid patients. Being near does not mean we got virus particles in/on our bodies.) Serology showed whether we had antibodies and further they did determine if those antibodies were from the vaccine or the virus.

Fauci & others often say each of these 3 vaccines were tested in different geographical locations and particularly the J&J product at a different time. All the data can show is vaccine behavior for subjects in their local communities. Since the mRNA vaccines testing was done before there were any known South African variant cases, there is no way to measure if those vaccines provide protection against that variant. The J&J vaccine was tested in South Africa == so they have firm data showing efficacy against that variant.

I am aware Moderna is testing against some new variants - lab testing, not trials as far as I know.

Personally what I care about most is not getting sick enough to need hospitalization. Today I would consider allowing intubation. I decided early last summer, I would not - the statistics were grim - 80% of intubated patients my age died.

Beyond my personal health, the thing I want most about is lowering community infection. About the last thing we need is covid becoming an annual problem like the flu - new shots every year. Unfortunately until we get the level in the community lower variants will happen with enough frequency to require vaccine changes.
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No. of Recommendations: 6
" About the last thing we need is covid becoming an annual problem like the flu - new shots every year. "


that wouldn't be the end of the world. I get a flu shot every year. If I had to get a COVID booster, so what? Probably be 'free' for seniors and $20 max for others if not covered by their insurance plan, just like flu shots.

If your current COVID shot keeps the variants at bay - at least keeps out of the hospital, from dying, or getting a 'severe' case...well a few might get a 'mild case' each year like flu - but most won't and the vaccine boosters will get better over time.

The Spanish flu epidemic died out by itself.....after a few years....and it was more deadly than this.



t.
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"Beyond my personal health, the thing I want most about is lowering community infection. About the last thing we need is covid becoming an annual problem like the flu - new shots every year. Unfortunately until we get the level in the community lower variants will happen with enough frequency to require vaccine changes."

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Much like everything in the world, folks will adapt to whatever comes down the pike.
Might not like it, but everyone will adapt.

Howie52
T'is how we live in the world.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Much like everything in the world, folks will adapt to whatever comes down the pike.
Might not like it, but everyone will adapt. - howie


-------------------

Except for climate change. Humans are incapable of adapting to that according to mpsy climate activists.
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mpsy

OCD: most

Note that p and o are adjacent on the keyboard as are y and t.
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"mpsy

OCD: most

Note that p and o are adjacent on the keyboard as are y and t. "

*****************************************************************************

Don't get stuck mimsy in the tulgy wood while looking for the jubjub bird.

Howie52
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It is odd to me that the Spanish flu died out by itself after a couple of years. I think someone here mentioned that. I am kind of confused at how a very contagious flu can "die out by itself." Doesn't seem to be logical how it would happen.

-Footsox
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"It is odd to me that the Spanish flu died out by itself after a couple of years. I think someone here mentioned that. I am kind of confused at how a very contagious flu can "die out by itself.""

Many cities/states did implement mask requirements, staggered business hours to avoid mass transit peak times, etc. Movies shut down and mass gatherings stopped.....

There were four different 'waves' over the years...and the virus mutated.... ( just like the common flu - where you need a different shot each year to handle the variants - some worse than others).

Part of the problem was it took place during WW1 - and many countries had full censorship of information - and there were large concentration of troops in not to great sanitary conditions - like on the front lines in trenches, or in bunkers with 20 in a small room, etc.

the weak (many younger folks)died off....others got it and survived.....

It did die out after 4 years - and killing one heck of a lot of people.... the war stopped too....


t.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
I am kind of confused at how a very contagious flu can "die out by itself." Doesn't seem to be logical how it would happen.

Basically the whole world had been exposed to it after a couple of years and a herd immunity developed.

But what is even more interesting to me is that, at least according to history.com

. . . according to genetic analyses, . . . the same novel strain of flu first introduced in 1918 appears to be the direct ancestor of every seasonal and pandemic flu we’ve had over the past century.

https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended
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I had also heard about the Spanish Flu that mutated but never really left.

The other factor in spreading the Flu was WW1. Troops who traveled to the front from all different nations spread the flu as they returned home. Travel was not the same as it is now. A much higher percentage of people never left their regions before the War. Some did as immigrants, but in many areas they did not.

So it can be argued that the war contributed to the pandemic, while at the same time, it got us to heard immunity much quicker. Would a slower regional spread have been a better outcome. We would then have a much slower spread over years or decades in different regions. Which is the better outcome we may never know.
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The herd immunity is a different situation. The book The Great Influenza The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History is the whole gruesome story.

https://www.amazon.com/Great-Influenza-Deadliest-Pandemic-Hi...

The mutation from "ordinary" flu apparently originated in Kansas, but was exported to the rest of the world during World War 1. There seems to have been a second mutation in Spain, hence we called it the Spanish Flu.

In the US various cities tried to isolate and contain the virus, with varying degrees of success. One success story was in San Francisco. Philadelphia tried, but people did not cooperate.

This flu seemed to kill the young, strong, and healthy. Authorities were at a loss to explain why.

The medicine of vaccines was in its infancy at the time, but a vaccine was eventually developed. A lot of the referenced book tells the story of the vaccine and the physicians who worked on it. With small pox, they were fighting something they could see (OK, through a microscope), but the virus was too small to be seen in a microscope.

Apparently the virus self mutated to become leas deadly.

The book is as much a history of medicine in the US as it is of the virus.
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Has anyone heard why the CDC is recommending folks who have received the vaccine
not travel?

Read the CDC comment in the newspaper - which then said nothing about the reasoning.

Howie52
Continued odd reports from the folks that are supposed to inform.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Has anyone heard why the CDC is recommending folks who have received the vaccine
not travel?


If you look at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vac... and scroll down to "What We Know and What We’re Still Learning", the "We’re still learning" items give good reason for the CDC's caution at this time until more is learned.

The "We’re still learning" items are:

We’re still learning how effective the vaccines are against variants of the virus that causes COVID-19. Early data show the vaccines may work against some variants but could be less effective against others.

We’re still learning how well COVID-19 vaccines keep people from spreading the disease.

We’re still learning how long COVID-19 vaccines can protect people.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
"Has anyone heard why the CDC is recommending folks who have received the vaccine
not travel?"

Yes....you're chances of picking up a 'variant' are tremendously higher overseas....and of course, in places were hundreds congregate like cruise ships, airplanes, airports, tourist destinations, restaurants, beaches, etc.

Part of your 'immunity' is to lowered likely pickup of any virus - (ie, viral load)..... as the US gets more and more innoculated - hopefully things will die out here.

Unfortunately large swaths of the world are way behind the US with some countries at near zero percent vaccinated...and of course, those folks trying to keep up visits with EU and other countries - or 'migrating' like our southern border....by the millions - carrying variants with them.

You likely will have some protection against a 'little exposure' but not to 'high viral loads'......

So.... watch your travel.

Overseas is still off limits - and most countries won't let you in anyway without quarantine.

Heck, it takes an act of congress almost to go to HI these days..... test and more test and more test....before, after, during.....

same for Canada - you 'can't' right now.


t.
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How do you know all this, when Dr. Fauci had no idea why?
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I’m pretty sure Dr Fauci knows more about this than any of us. Have you been an infectious disease expert for 50 years?
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I’m pretty sure Dr Fauci knows more about this than any of us. Have you been an infectious disease expert for 50 years? - SG

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Without getting into his politics, as an expert in a very narrow field, Lord Fauci's advice is provided strictly in that domain, ie there is no other metric that matters besides covid infection rate. Politicians, the people who make actual laws, have to treat health issues as one factor among many others (social impact, child development, economic impact, security, etc) when crafting a policy. Also keep in mind, Fauci was not elected to any position of authority or leadership.

There are experts everywhere and if you decide to turn over your decisions to them, then you won't be able to decide for yourself what is best to have for breakfast.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
There are experts everywhere and if you decide to turn over your decisions to them, then you won't be able to decide for yourself what is best to have for breakfast.

Not sure what your comments (or even this thread) have to do with retirement. Typical Texan attitude. It must be something in the water, but you folks all seem ultra paranoid that someone is going to force you to do something you don't want to do. I say this an a once Texan, with all om my family and several friend still there. Clue: The frontier days are long behind us. It's necessary to live in a cooperative society now, for everyone's mutual benefit, even if it means yielding some of your precious independence.

CNC
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The frontier days are long behind us. It's necessary to live in a cooperative society now, for everyone's mutual benefit, even if it means yielding some of your precious independence.

CNC


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There are so many experts with so many overlapping or conflicting opinions about what car to drive, what foods are good, how much sleep you need, if coffee or wine is good or bad for you, what vitamins you should take, how much fat should be in your diet, what should be taught in school, what type of light bulb you should use, whether to hire a financial planner or DIY, ... etc ad infinitum.

So tell me, how does CNC decide which expert to listen to for a given element of your life? My guess is you apply common sense and your own critical thinking skills to evaluate alternatives and decide for yourself what CNC will do. Is that what you refer to as "precious independence"?
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So tell me, how does CNC decide which expert to listen to for a given element of your life? My guess is you apply common sense and your own critical thinking skills to evaluate alternatives and decide for yourself what CNC will do. Is that what you refer to as "precious independence"?

Well,, for starters, I listen to the law of the land, as enacted by out congress, or by the state congress. I don't decide for myself what the speed limit should be, or which side of the street I should use for my driving.

Beyond the laws, I look to experts with credentials in the area of discussion. Dr. Faucci seems like an authoritative reference on Covid19, no? I would certainly value his opinion on that subject to that of the Governor of Texas. You?

I do not value the opinions of most lay people (Including, from what I can tell, anyone on this board) on the subject of Covid19 and how to behave with it. I tend to be a cautious person, with occasional outbursts of temperament. (Just ask the Countess.) As a cautious person, I respect Dr. Faucci's opinion more that anyone else whose opinion I have heard.

We have both received two vaccine shots. We will still avoid crowds, including restaurants and bars until the all clear is sounded. (Note the allusion to The Time Machine by H. G. Wells.)
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Beyond the laws, I look to experts with credentials in the area of discussion. Dr. Faucci seems like an authoritative reference on Covid19, no? I would certainly value his opinion on that subject to that of the Governor of Texas. You? - CNC

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Technical Knowledge about Covid - Fauci*

How best to govern the population of Texas - The Governor of Texas.


*but there are plenty of other experts who opinions could be factored into an individuals decision regarding to what extent they are going to follow a particular "recommendation"
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How best to govern the population of Texas - The Governor of Texas.

----------------

I should said

How best to govern the population and economy of Texas - The Governor of Texas.

And this will be my last post on this tread. I suspect the rest of the board is getting weary of the banter between CNC and me. Time to get back to SWR's.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
There are experts everywhere and if you decide to turn over your decisions to them, then you won't be able to decide for yourself what is best to have for breakfast.

When it comes to my health I'm going to go with an expert (doctor or scientist) in the whatever field I'm having an issue with over a politician any day!

I've had health issues and my diet has been restricted many times over the last 42 years and you bet I followed my doctors orders on what to have for breakfast, lunch, snack and dinner!

As far as COVID-19 is concerned, I'm going with Dr. Fauci recommendations and if you think he's strict you should hear what my DIL's advise is. Her PhD is in infectious diseases so she's even more strict than Fauci and I value and follow her advise because I know she wants to keep me and DH safe and healthy. When I see the number of deaths, when I read about the long term effects, I'd rather be SAFE than SORRY!

DH and I have had both doses of Pfizer vaccine over a month ago, but we will continue to social distance, wear masks and wash our hands. We have not been in a grocery store or any other business except the doctors office for a year now and we aren't changing the way we do things. We have found everything we need we can buy online and have delivered. We do go out for walks where we can keep away from others everyday, we talk to our friends and neighbors from a distance with masks on and we go for drives.

In the future, we see ourselves wearing mask during the winter months to help prevent the flu. I don't see the big deal about a mask. When I was in line to get my first dose of vaccine someone in line asked everyone if they were excited to get their shots. Everyone mentioned they could tell by the expression change in my eyes that I was excited to get mine!

Utahtea
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No. of Recommendations: 2
"’m pretty sure Dr Fauci knows more about this than any of us. "

Dr Fauci is one of the most media exposed member of the government that is touted by the media as an expert.Dr. Fauci is mainly a bureaucrat .
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Fauci's advice has been flat-out wrong for most of the covid pandemic.He is the reason Trump gets blamed for his covid suggestions.He based them on what Fauci told him at the time.

I can't believe Fauci gets to do it all again for the Biden Administration.
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Fauci's advice has been flat-out wrong for most of the covid pandemic.He is the reason Trump gets blamed for his covid suggestions.He based them on what Fauci told him at the time.

Any you know all this how?
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At least give Fauci credit for not sending anyone with Covid back to a nursing home like Cuomo did.

tsimi
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Fauci's advice has been flat-out wrong for most of the covid pandemic.

My recollection is that initially Fauci's recommendations were based on how to handle other coronaviruses until more was learned about COVID-19, and a bit tempered by the realities of the time (e. g., masks were needed by the medical community until production hand ramped up and also lower grade masks were only partially effective in stopping the wearer from catching the virus, but it wasn't clear then how important masks were in reducing the contamination of others by the wearer).

But Fauci was right about treating the virus seriously, something the former president seemed to have never done.

More recently our former president started muzzling Fauci and the CDC.

After our current President was inaugurated, I would trust what Fauci has to say about COVID-19.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
I have gotten my "Fauci Ouchi" and glad of it.

I have friend who could have written many of the comments above. He passed away of covid, still not believing in it and swearing it was a hoax.

Please be safe folks
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No. of Recommendations: 10
The person who was 100% flat out wrong was Trump.

“It’s just like the flu”. Wrong.
“It’ll be gone in two weeks” Wrong
“ hydroxychloroquine cures it” wrong
“Inject yourself with disinfectant “
“Shine a bright light up your....”
(Dozens of super spreader parties)

Wrong wrong wrong.

Then glare at and intimidate the guy ten times smarter than you trying to tell the truth.

So glad to be rid of the ignorant bully in chief.
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" Has anyone heard why the CDC is recommending folks who have received the vaccine
not travel?

If you look at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vac...... and scroll down to "What We Know and What We’re Still Learning", the "We’re still learning" items give good reason for the CDC's caution at this time until more is learned.

The "We’re still learning" items are:

We’re still learning how effective the vaccines are against variants of the virus that causes COVID-19. Early data show the vaccines may work against some variants but could be less effective against others.

We’re still learning how well COVID-19 vaccines keep people from spreading the disease.

We’re still learning how long COVID-19 vaccines can protect people. "

*****************************************************************************************

You do realize you are saying that the vaccines are not known to work or that the
CDC does not believe the vaccines are effective?

Howie52
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Dr Fauci is one of the most media exposed member of the government that is touted by the media as an expert.Dr. Fauci is mainly a bureaucrat .

Our DIL, the PhD who specializes in infectious diseases told us Dr. Fauci was the one to listen to! She is highly respected and honored in her field...so I trust her!

Utahtea
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You do realize you are saying that the vaccines are not known to work or that the
CDC does not believe the vaccines are effective?


No, I am not saying it, it is from the CDC web page, and they are saying that they know the shots work to reduce or prevent the disease once one gets the original virus, but that they don't know how effective it is for the spreading of the virus or the effectiveness of it against the variants.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Mark12547 wrote:

" Has anyone heard why the CDC is recommending folks who have received the vaccine
not travel?

If you look at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vac......... and scroll down to "What We Know and What We’re Still Learning", the "We’re still learning" items give good reason for the CDC's caution at this time until more is learned.

The "We’re still learning" items are:

We’re still learning how effective the vaccines are against variants of the virus that causes COVID-19. Early data show the vaccines may work against some variants but could be less effective against others.

We’re still learning how well COVID-19 vaccines keep people from spreading the disease.

We’re still learning how long COVID-19 vaccines can protect people. "

*****************************************************************************************
Howie52 wrote:

You do realize you are saying that the vaccines are not known to work or that the
CDC does not believe the vaccines are effective?

*****************************************************************************************

Howie52, You and I get some very different views of what the CDC says.

It's the variants the CDC is worried about. Variants are growing at an alarming rate because COVID-19 has gone unchecked for so long. That's what virus do and we were warned about this but no one wants to hear it! The second two comments are they are STILL LEARNING!

COVID-19 didn't come with instructions on how it worked or how to fight it. It's a LEARNING process and that's why the rules and advise change and how to fight it has changed. Once scientist learn more about it, they can make better decisions and give out better advice.

Utahtea
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Right from the horses mouth

https://710wor.iheart.com/featured/mark-simone/content/2020-......


Love the way the horse take sound bites out of context, leaves out important info and gives no dates.

I only dug into two of the sound bites and found it's not ALL that it seems.

So when you see Biden saying "he's" been behind the curve from the very beginning he was talking about TRUMP not Fauci. Here's the whole video. Go to about a minute and listen to the question and then listen to Biden.

https://newschannel20.com/news/coronavirus/biden-says-trump-...

Yes, back in Jan 21, 2020 Fauci did say this is not a major thread for the people of the US...but look what he said before that!

https://twitter.com/gregkellyusa/status/1246060637748330496?...


“Obviously, you need to take it seriously, and do the kinds of things that the CDC and the Department of Homeland Security are doing, ” Fauci responded. “But, this not a major threat for the people of the United States, and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.”

No one is perfect and advise changed as the data came in!

https://twitter.com/gregkellyusa/status/1246060637748330496?...

Utahtea






Utahtea
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"
No one is perfect and advise changed as the data came in!"

That's exactly right.That's why Trump's suggestions/recommendations changed as new data came in.
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