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From the INFN board (INFN and EBIX are both old but timely RB picks). We seem to have the start of a good cross-discussion:

I personally believe we'll see $24 and up but not $13. Thirteen will require an actual flame, or a truly special article. I've got to believe that the naivety of the market must have limits, particularly if it pays attention to when these articles are released.

I'm with you, Duke, for the most part; except evidence suggests that we can't depend on a rational market. Here's a copy and paste from the EBIX board:

High the date of the 2011 short attack; $30.50
Close at the end of the week; $23.48; Down 23%
Close eight weeks later; $20.35; down another 13%

October 2012 short attack Daily High; 22.61
End of week close; $17.89; down 21%
Close Dec 31; 16.33; down another 9%

Further elaboration, or belaboring, if you prefer:
There was no news that I'm aware of that should have pushed EBIX from a high of $30.50 to a low of $13.02 the week of October 3, 2011; most of 7 months and two solid quarterly reports later. It hung in the low 20s for a while (30% off the high) before slipping lower in mid-July, four months post-attack.

You can see that it's essentially parallel since the October short attack of 2012. We've been consolidating around $16 for the past 8 weeks; about 30% off the $24-ish at attack time.

There is no reason to think that the pattern will repeat, there is only reason to think that it might. The key is to not be surprised or overly concerned; bearing this in mind from here forward will give us the fortitude to "be brave when others are fearful," as our pal Buffett would say, and scoop up more if and when it does slip lower.

Gee, I lost track that we're actually on the INFN board here, so I'll close with this:
There is no reason to think that the market will return INFN to $4.99 and grant me another third, there is only reason to think that it might. If it does, you all be brave (but please put your limit order in for $4.98)!


p.s. In the interest if full disclosure, I have a limit order placed for EBIX at $16.25. It almost filled a couple of days ago. I hope to get a third at $16.25 and a third at $13. The first third is actually two thirds, so if I get some at $13, I'll have four thirds. Math was always my favorite subject!
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