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Thanks for your level-headed, civil reply.

I linked a chart to the DJIA, because it was easier to find than one for the SP500. But given the 97% correlation between the two, one is as good as another for long-term, historical look-backs.

The point I was making is that 'investing' isn't a sure thing in either the short-term or the long term. In fact, the only sure thing is that "On a long enough time frame, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero." Therefore, expecting that future markets will bail you out of present mistakes is naive foolishness.

We're ten years into an asset bubble. When it will burst is anyone's guess. But the fact that it will burst is a certainty. Therefore, how to hedge that event --or to profit from it-- should be foremost in a new investor's mind.

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