The retail drug sector looks real interesting. First Long drug stores moved down sharply, now RAD tumbled. I was very unimpressed with CVS same store sales last quarter and with it's high P/E, any negative news could send this stock down. Technically the stock has been in a trading range for quite a while and it might be a good short if it manages to make it to the high end of it's trading range again (54-55) Of course, CVS management is very efficient but I think that they have squeezed about all they can out of the performance of this stock (except for price increases on drugs) unless they expand in the Western states.
In response to CVS expanding West... that would be the logical step.When I worked there, my manager told me that CVS is considering moving down to Florida and westward.His dream was to be selected to become a trainer for potential managers in the new market in Florida (nicer climate, etc.).Of course he has left the company since then and returned to Israel. The point is that there is no reason to believe CVS isn't going to do just that.It takes time to work out the logistics and the distribution system (not to mention acquire a few competitors along the way).The way I understand it is that CVS cannot train enough managers to expand right now. I recently went back to my old store in CT. Some of my co-workers of five years back are still there. I was shocked to see a kid straight out of high school working as an assistant manager. This would never happen five years ago. This only shows you this is a potential obstacle for expansion.The bottom line is that I still have faith for the place where I first got my first job. Just have to go with gut instinct....
There is nothing wrong with your gut instinct, CVS is a good company and I too expect it to expand. Still it is very expensive and if it can not generate enough growth to justify it's high valuations, it may end up like Rite Aid. This weeks low of around 45.00 seems to validate this.
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