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David,

Norm, if you wait for the market, you may miss out on the growth. :-)

Yes, of course. I never suggested that one should wait for the market. When one actually reads a company's financial statement showing the impact of a new development, the market has already moved so it's too late to act. One has already missed the gain if it's a positive development and one simply locks in the loss by selling if it's a negative development.

In Beating the Street, Peter Lynch explains his "sell" signal for commercial retail companies quite simply. He sold a retailer whenever his wife and his daughters no longer brought home bags from the respective store when they went to the mall -- thus getting out of the stock before the company's quarterly reports reflected a drop in sales. And, conversely, he seriously considered purchasing a stock whenever he noticed that his wife and his daughters started bringing home bags from a store that he did not own.

I agree that there are some regulatory hurdles on the 21st Century Fox deal, but I am confident the company can push through them. First, the president is friends with the Murdochs so I am not anticipating the hardline approach that the DoJ is taking against the AT&T/Time Warner deal, despite the fact that merger being more vertical than this one.

I doubt that the President will intervene personally if the Anti-Trust Division of the Department of Justice determines that the acquisition crosses federal anti-trust law. It would look very bad politically.

Still, there's no denying that Disney would potentially own nearly 40% of the domestic box office. Abscent political interest in the deal (and I do think it is political factors - CNN - driving the fight against AT&T and Time Warner which is a pure vertical alignment with no overlapping businesses and would result in a company that looked more like Comcast), I think the current Congress and executive branch's focus on decreasing regulation and getting out of corporate America's way bodes well for Disney.

Anti-trust laws are almost as much of a political "hot wire" as social security. With a bare majority in the Senate, the Grand Old Party (GOP) lacks the votes to break a filibuster -- and I doubt that one can get it into a "reconciliation" bill or something else that would be filibuster-proof under the Senate's rules.

Norm.
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