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db,

the guy who happened to start his QCOM position back on April 4, 1999, after doing the masterful DD catalogued in those posts, was one Mike Buckley, who's been known to post around here occasionally, I believe.

Earlier this spring, when everything was tanking, I made some grumbling noises about how in retrospect I was stupid to have gotten caught up in the bubblish hysteria and not taken some profits--and how I attributed that to newbie naivete, and wished that I had had the valuation skills and experience of a Mike Buckley or a Bruce Brown to help me make reasonably accurate timing decisions.

This generated quite a heated debate, the upshot of which was that the very people I was so jealous of swore that they had never been able to do as well trading as they did LTB&H, and that the only way their skills came in handy was in trying to find somewhat reasonable entry points and in making relative valuation decisions among otherwise equally attractive investments. They also stressed that with the kind of excellent companies of concern to this thread, the potential for breaking good news was ever present, making it especially difficult to time their investments well by using any kind of market-based or technical analysis.

In one sense, therefore, you are correct, in that entries at auspicious times and prices are very profitable, and highly recommended. But--first, for a true LTB&Her the fact of the entry eventually ends up mattering far more than the price of the entry, and second, some of the wisest and most experienced folks around are surprisingly modest about their ability to do more than find great growth stocks and hang on tight for dear life.

Unfortunately the Silicon Investor website is down at the moment for repairs, but if I remember and have some time later on I'll cross-post one or two of Buckley's less fatuous comments on the topic...

prosperous investing,

tekboy
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