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No. of Recommendations: 5
Dear Murph: (yes, I echo Denny)

#1- it's great to see some posts on this board again. I think that it is a sign that we are all hearing that over the next little while, Value will outperform Growth. This thesis may be correct.

#2- the most important and salient bit of Denny's post is regarding dollar cost averaging. We are hearing a lot lately about 10 year average returns being lousy from here. That also may or may not be correct, but the way to obviate the question is to dollar cost average. If you are young enough to stay in the market for 15 or 20 years, dollar cost average will likely overcome every bad 10 year return. If however you are older and can't stay in the market, perhaps growth is not the place to be for any number of reasons.

#3- I still follow CALM, which is the only publicly traded company solely in the business of growing and selling eggs. You can see from my CAPS score that I have never been wrong on my CALM call because it correlates so well with three things:

1. the wholesale cost of eggs (I happen to buy eggs wholesale)
2. the dividend (25% of profits, only paid when profits are positive, and calculated on a cumulative basis...if they have lost 25 cents in three quarters straight then make a buck, they pay 25% of 25 cents).
3. The value of the dollar. I am less certain of this, but I believe it's a factor. When the dollar weakens, ag commodities become more attractive overseas, eggs included. This is just something I noticed a long time ago.

CALM is fair valued where it currently sits (around $37), but interest in the stock seems to wax and wane. If the price drops to $30, it is in value territory. They have not paid a dividend in seven quarters, but based on what we are paying for eggs wholesale right now, they will make enough money to pay a small divi in this quarter. The next two quarters will be holiday quarters, and profits will be much better, the divi much higher.

Great to hear from you all.

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