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No. of Recommendations: 4
Seems like a good plan to accelerate the optimization plan. Rent concessions and/or more closings. Improving the worst stores. Rebranding FDO->DLTR. Paying down debt. Adult beverages might increase foot traffic. Starboard is there which is probably a detriment in the short term optimization but might have a silver lining if that optimization plan doesn't bare fruit.

2020 looks better and I'm assuming that is with 25% tariffs baked in.

https://www.dollartreeinfo.com/news-releases/news-release-de...

2019 Store Optimization Program

After continued development, experimentation and testing, the Company is very pleased to roll out a new model for both new and renovated Family Dollar stores internally known as H2. This new H2 model has significantly improved merchandise offerings, including Dollar Tree$1.00 merchandise, throughout the store. H2 has produced increased traffic and provided an average comparable store sales lift in excess of 10% over control stores. H2 performs well in a variety of locations, and especially in locations where Family Dollar has in the past been the most challenged. The Company plans to renovate at least 1,000 of these stores this year and will pursue an accelerated renovation schedule in future years.

The Company closed 84 under-performing stores in the fourth quarter – closing 37 more than originally planned for the year. In fiscal 2019, the Company is seeking to obtain material rent concessions from landlords on under-performing stores. Without such concessions, the Company expects to accelerate its pace of store closings to as many as 390 stores in fiscal 2019 (compared to the banner’s normal annual closing cadence of approximately 75 stores).

The Company plans to re-banner approximately 200 Family Dollar stores to the Dollar Tree banner in 2019.

Additionally, the Company plans to install adult beverages in approximately 1,000 stores and expand freezers and coolers in approximately 400 stores.

The actions taken in 2019 under the Store Optimization Program alone are expected to provide a comparable store sales lift of up to 1.5% once they have been implemented by the end of fiscal 2019.

...

For fiscal 2019, our guidance is based on the expectation that Section 301 tariffs would move to 25% in March 2019. If these tariffs do not move to 25%, we expect to see margin benefit in the second half of fiscal 2019.

The Company estimates consolidated net sales will range from $23.45 billion to $23.87 billion. This estimate is based on a low single-digit increase in same-store sales and approximately 1.0% square footage growth. Diluted earnings per share are expected to range from $4.85 to $5.25, and includes discrete costs of approximately $95 million, or $0.31 per share. Diluted earnings per share in fiscal 2019 are also burdened by approximately $0.18 due to the expected tax rate being 22.6% as compared to 19.9%, excluding the goodwill impairment charge, in fiscal 2018.

...

Additionally, we believe that these initiatives will drive business and provide the platform for an accelerated improvement in earnings in fiscal 2020, when the Company’s earnings per share are expected to grow 14% to 18% over reported fiscal 2019 earnings per share.
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