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No. of Recommendations: 5
DMTK sure is interesting. One thing concerns me. Would love feedback from people following it more.

Their ASP is still $193 for Q4 (1600000/8300). Medicare has been reimbursing at $760 from Jan. 2020, a full 15 months ago.

https://investors.dermtech.com/news-releases/news-release-de...

Medicare-based tests formed 18% of all tests in Q4. Even assuming ASP of $700 for Medicare tests it seems like the ASP for the non-medicare tests is only $80/test! Even after many Blue cross plans now approving this (the CEO claimed some 85 Million are being covered now) can the company really increase their ASP? I read that overall costs for the initial biopsy is $1000. This would suggest that insurance plans should have no issues in paying up $760. For Q1 21 they are projecting about the same level of revenue as of Q4 20 which suggests an ASP of <$200. Why is the company still unable to increase ASP?

They also state in their remarks "We are also working with Medicare to resolve a recently identified claims adjudication programming issue, which results in a reduced number of paid claims by Medicare. Thus, while we expect revenue to grow, it is somewhat challenging for us to project the growth at this time"

They also state this is unlikely to be resolved by Q1 21. Perhaps this is also putting pressure on the ASP?

One final note. They had a Billable sample volume for the full year 2020 of approximately 24,000. The CEO expected 34,000 tests for 2021. A 40% rise in that seems somewhat low for such a new ground-breaking development.
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