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not to many messages on this board. i own cais and i'm looking for something positive. this stock seems to be dead and going nowere. i still have hope but slowly losing it...potential?
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It's a crapshoot alpha. Their OverVoice technology seems to be a good one, but they are strictly a niche player: hotels and MDUs. There is also lots of potential competition. They've been aggressive in rolling it out and the recent deal with Qwest helps speed the process. We won't know whether this works until we see how sales and revenues are doing. The fundamental questions are these:
Will a businessman be willing to pay $10 extra night for high-speed Internet? Can CAIS get established nationwide fast enough to get a good hunk of that market, assuming it exists? Can they get the 30% usage rate that they need to make a profit on this service? Will some cheaper-to-implement technology be invented that makes OverVoice, DSL and copper wires obsolete?
These fundamental questions will have long term impact on the stock price. As for short-term, there are a couple of problems. The IPO was priced at 12-14, but the spring IPO market overheated and the underwriters decided to take advantage by jacking the price up to $19, which is where it came out. If you look at where it was supposed to be and where it is now, it's no big deal. It fell from an artificial high. The second problem is the ATCOM takeover in which CAIS issued a huge slug of stock (my memory is 3.2 million shares) to make the purchase. This dilution pretty much places a lid on any near-term upward momentum. Another factor is the lockup rule, which expires Nov. 23, when insiders will be allowed to sell for the first time.
CAIS could prove to be an excellent long-term investment, but there are many risks involved. I believe until we see some of those risks overcome and a couple of quarters of solid sales and revenue growth (there won't be profits before 2002), this stock is dead money. It has formed a double bottom which suggests it won't drift below 10 1/2 so downside risk for now is low in my opinion.
I am long and intend to add to my holdings over time as the picture clears. One misstep, though, and I'm gone. The chances of complete failure are too high to ride things down to the bottom.
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technic47 wrote...

Will a businessman be willing to pay $10 extra night for high-speed Internet?

As a frequent traveler, I am willing to occasionaly pay $10.00 for the service. But not on a daily basis. The question is whether the company picks up the tab. Unless there is justification for the cost, usually not. But on extended trips, if I have an evening with nothing to do, I'll spend the $10.00.

Tonight is such an example. I've been here since Sunday, been busy every evening until now. I wanted to check my personal e-mail and decided to see how well this service works. Overall it was a breeze to set up. Web browsing is extremely fast ! Receiving mail was not a problem. Sending mail is. Remember, still need to send/receive via your ISP. I contacted my ISP and they couldn't resolve the issue. I was able to send mail to my ISP's domain, (a test message to myself that I was able to see via their web-mail service, and an e-mail to their tech support person) but could not get messages past their domain... Perhaps I'll call or e-mail CAIS this weekend.

David...

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Interesting technical report especially as I have decided this company is a buy even up to 60. In fact I expected the share value to already be well over one hundred, based on its market cap and alleged master agreements.
I don't know about the extra charges that one would have to pay for a room with the service , but I would anticipate that any rate increase practice would not stand up to the market. Once a percentage of hotels have the service, todays businessmen will not want anything less so Hotels will just have to have it (period). Lets face it , that's our personal time were spending after hours all the time working away on line.
I,m confused by your report of a difference in the send speed versus the receive. I am not aware of this distinction on DSL service in Canada by Bell Sympatico where we are also able to recieve telephone calls while on line by a separation of the bandwidths for voice and data. That is also of key value, when a business traveler needs to answer an urgent call, while still needing urgently to get work done on line.
The two have to be available to the high profile business traveler of which there seems to be ever increasing numbers of.
Please comment, as in a sense I'm convincing myself. I will add that I recently sold off my CMTO shares after playing with marginal profits for 4 months. This is all because of the uncertainties of cable modems in general which I don't believe exist with the DSL technology.
Besides how's a business man supposed to watch his porn if he's using the darn cable for the Internet. (Just a joke).


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