Skip to main content
This Board Has Moved

This board has been migrated to our new platform! Check out the new home page at discussion.fool.com or click below to go directly to the new Board on the new site.

Go to the New Site
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
No. of Recommendations: 1
Don't overestimate your clairvoyance. It's easy to feel certain when you're not putting any money on the line.

When you actually hover over the "Sell" button, you come to realize that your certainty about a coming bear market is more like 55% than 95%.

I think "buy and hold" is a stock-level concept distinct from the more macro-oriented "stay fully invested", but the point is largely similar: predicting anything short-term is extremely hard and fraught with behavioral biases. Demonstrating an ability to do it requires more than looking back at the one time what someone said turned out to be right. Talk is cheap, and I don't listen to anyone who doesn't put their money where their mouth is, including my former self.
Print the post  

Announcements

When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.