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No. of Recommendations: 1
Don't overestimate your clairvoyance. It's easy to feel certain when you're not putting any money on the line.

When you actually hover over the "Sell" button, you come to realize that your certainty about a coming bear market is more like 55% than 95%.

I think "buy and hold" is a stock-level concept distinct from the more macro-oriented "stay fully invested", but the point is largely similar: predicting anything short-term is extremely hard and fraught with behavioral biases. Demonstrating an ability to do it requires more than looking back at the one time what someone said turned out to be right. Talk is cheap, and I don't listen to anyone who doesn't put their money where their mouth is, including my former self.
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