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No. of Recommendations: 0
Earlier this AM, the board decided to raise cash ahead of Fed meeting, given how bubblicious so many stocks are getting.

When everyone with a dart seems to be hitting bullseyes, something is off.

Not willing to take tax hit on ZS, but sold out of riskier estc and stne assets, which remain on the watchlist. Both were nice gains, and we appreciate their time.

Barely a Q into 2019 and Dreamer Corp, like many, is up big...so going to squirrel away some cash as things dont go up in a straight line forever.

15% cash currently.
Long ttd twlo ayx zs and bzun.

Bench: mdb estc stne acrgf okta gh smar pd sq noc zen now and others

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 7
Dreamer Corp has had a great Q1, although a couple days remain. Up somewhere in the mid-40's% YTD, and with signs of a bubbly SaaS stock market, we are trying to be a bit prudent.

allocations are approx
Cash 28%
TTD 25%
AYX 17%
TWLO 15%
BZUN 13%
mandatory mut fund 3%

Thought process:
It is abnormal to think one can easily net 60-80% gains every year. Regardless of whether the US is at the "end" of a bull cycle or not, I do feel we may be near the end of stock appreciation hyper-growth, for the next 12 months, for stocks that ran 200-300% already in previous 12 months. Meaning - it is unrealistic to think stock price growth can continually outpace the business performance (revenue growth, billings growth, earnings growth...however you want to measure it).

Example:
Tauntaun Enterprises (TE) grows 65% y/y from 2016 to 2018. Their stock price grows over 100% y/y from 2016-2018.
Their P/S was 9 at start of 2016 and now it is 27.
Assuming the company continues to grow at the incredible pace of 65% y/y, it becomes unreasonable at some point to expect TE's stock to continue outpacing the growth. If it does, then it becomes a 35 P/S and then a 50 P/S. This is sort of what I see with stocks in nosebleed territory, like ZS and MDB.

If your outlook is 3-5 years or more, then none of this matters. But just as SaaS stocks are growing like weeds, eventually the music will stop.

Think of it like streaming video services. When Netflix is the only game in town, you stomach the $10/month no problem. Then you added Hulu. Then you went to cancel your Amazon Prime membership and decided to keep it for the video service. Then you started subscribing to SlingTV or DirecTvNow or HBO or Showtime or CBS (so you could watch Star Trek) and then you realize you will have to join Disney's new service soon, and then you are a big Apple fanboy, and you heard their announcement today. Suddenly, you went from being a saavy cord-cutter to way over your head in monthly fees.

Saul makes the argument that SaaS stocks just have recurring revenue "forever" which I get the idea, but in reality there are hard budget considerations for most companies. Why are companies bringing workloads back from the cloud? Oh yeah...because it turns out that if you use that data in the cloud it actually gets really expensive. So just like businesses will find a balance for on-prem workloads and cloud-based workloads down the road, I see them also deciding that, based on OpEx and CapEx budgets, that they will start making hard decisions on what to keep paying for. SaaS companies will either have to lower prices to compete for these finite budgets.

So then it becomes: what is value mean to a company?
1. A company wants to improve their finances.
2. A company wants to be better than their competition.
3. A company wants to attract and retain top/key talent.

Alteryx, Twilio, The Trade Desk, and Baozun all provide valuable services. Are they "more" valuable to a company than ServiceNow or Okta or Salesforce or Workday, once a company is standardized on them?

I think the former companies are more about #2. The latter are more about #1 and #3.
Different, but both are valuable.

If the general SaaS/tech/cloud market didn't seem so overheated, I would probably own all of those. Instead, it seems they all go up and down, more or less in sync, since Dec 24th 2018 lows. So if the market can't currently tell the difference apparently, then I want to look at the valuations and try and at least be a bit safer and BUILD upon the gains I have so far this year, vs just watching the paper gains all fade in a correction.

So 70% of my port is invested and hopefully growing and 30% is at the ready for that key moment to deploy. I don't know when that moment will be, but I think I will know it when I see it.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 3
I bought 5% position in ESTC.
Not calling the bottom, but under $6b mkt cap is palatable.

Will be happy to add more if it drops further as i would like to build up a 10-15% position at the right price.

I expect 12months from now, they are around $375m in TTM.
A p/s of 15 would be a wash. A p/s of 20 is almost a 50% gain.

Currently it is a 24.5 p/s.
Which means you can get share price appreciation with p/s deceleration in 12 months.

Will do a separate ESTC Dreamer Corp post soon. Liked their news today: Elastic Delivers a New Uptime Solution for Real-Time Monitoring and Availability of Systems and Services https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17455884?source=ansh $ESTC
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No. of Recommendations: 0
"I expect 12months from now, they are around $375m in TTM.
A p/s of 15 would be a wash. A p/s of 20 is almost a 50% gain."

Correction...meant 30% gain.

The current mkt cap would need to drop closer to 5b or another 15% down. That is where I hope to buy more, but timing is tough, so bought a smaller chunk now.

Of course, it it holds current p/s for 12 months when it hits 375m in ttm revenues, it would be about 9b mkt cap or about a 53% share gain.

So i think ESTC willmake me somewhere between 0% and 53% at end of 12 months. :)

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Are you taking dilution into account on your return calculations?

I think there could be significant dilution over the next 6 months with lock up expiring.


Jim (long ESTC)
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Price–sales ratio, P/S ratio, or PSR, is a valuation metric for stocks. It is calculated by dividing the company's market capitalization by the revenue in the most recent year; or, equivalently, divide the per-share stock price by the per-share revenue.

--

I am only ever modeling the former.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Sure, what I am saying is you have to take dilution into account.


Let's say over the next year , for example, there are 20% more shares in ESTC because of the lock up expiration.


The market cap just went up 20% for the same price per share.

So you would have to subtract 20% from all of the returns at the various P/S ratio assumptions.

So a P/S of 15 is no longer a wash, it's a 20% loss.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I dont want to discuss share dilution or lock up expirations on this board. Just too boring. All tech companies have share dilution. There is also a difference between total shares and float.

Using revenue as the basis for P/S and mkt cap is not precise, but directionally accurate enough to help me decide which stocks have more upside than others.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 3
The Board made some adjustments, and spent cash.
went larger on ESTC near today's lows, bringing allocation up to 14% or so.
Added SPLK as a value/growth (oxymoron much?) play in data space.

We like having SPLK, ESTC, and AYX. Making data "actionable" is the ultimate value for a company that wants to, in turn, increase their own value to their end users, to their own sales forces, and to increase or create a lead over their competition in the marketplace.

We like MDB as the 4th pillar here, and perhaps Palantir when they IPO, but likely that will be expensive. Just heard about $800m win with Fed govt for Palantir.

So why Splunk? I have liked them in the industry for a while, although not something I deal with hands-on in my current role, which given the Nutanix fiasco is probably a good thing. The stock consolidated for YEARS from a steep Spring 2014 drop until about 2018 when it caught on fire again. Despite all that, the P/S stands under 10 today. They recently finished calendar 2018 with $1.8b in revenue compared to $1.27b in revenue for calendar 2017. Pretty impressive growth at that scale.

When you read thru their ER CC transcripts, there is a similar feel to ESTC in terms of use case optionality. They also made some acquisitions (VictorOps) last year to further expand TAM, including a company that is listed as one of Pager Duty's competitors. They have very good growth in 7-figure and 8-figure clients. They went from (10) 8-figure clients in 2017 to (24) 8-figure clients in 2018. That smells like land-n-expand, Batman!

Several analysts have had upgrades since last ER, citing the stock has slid into solid value territory. Cramer is a fan, fwiw.

Here is Feb 28th CC transcript:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4245537-splunks-splk-ceo-do...

They have a growing cloud business, but like AYX and ESTC, they will continue to have on-prem clients, due to fact that massive data-crunching is too expensive in cloud and/or too big a pain to move from on-prem to cloud just to do the analytics. So data analysis takes place where the data is. With SPLK, ESTC, and AYX, I feel I have actionable data analytics companies that span developers to citizen data scientists and business owners. From traditional IT teams concerned with security or app performance monitoring/mgmt to CIO's trying to mine their IoT data to get an edge on competition, to CFO's trying to leverage data to maximize focus on the most profitable areas and products/solutions their companies offer. They cover both real-time analytics and business strategy planning use cases.

If MDB ever gets within reach of a reasonable valuation, compared to their same-growth-rate peers, we would like to add them into the fold. Can't own them all though. Same for ZS.

Did think about buying TTD on the dip, but the allocation is already stretched, so will just let that bounce back as-is. I believe the Google Chrome stuff is FUD, just like Amazon with ESTC and MDB, and their progress in China shows they are headed for bigger and better things over time.

The Board would like to note that we suck at timing, so likely a market collapse will happen tomorrow, as we are more or less fully invested at this time.

order of allocation sizes:
TTD, AYX, TWLO, ESTC, SPLK, BZUN, crappy mutual fund, then a few pennies in cash.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 10
The Board decided life is too short for all this second-guessing and while we reserve the right to be opportunistic, i have assembled a port of companies i expect to be 2-3-5 year holds. So let the recession or corrections come...they should bounce back.

Will post allocations later as the dust settles, but I bought every company i really want to own, with the exception of a pot play, which is really more of a gamble.

10 companies to rule thru end of 2021:
TTD
AYX
TWLO
BZUN
ESTC
SPLK
MDB
ZS
OKTA
SMAR

We feel we have the ultimate data basket in ayx estc splk mdb and even ttd.

We have china/asia exposure in ttd and bzun.

Enterprise stickiness in Okta and smar.

Security in zs okta and splk.

Api/developer focus in twlo estc and mdb.

Line of business focus w ayx and smar, redfining the spreadsheet market.

Advertising. Communications. Security. Enterprise Productivity. Data Analytics. That is a whole lotta TAM.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 3
urrent rough allocations
TTD 24%
BZUN 14%
AYX 14%
TWLO 12%
ESTC 8%
ZS 7%
MDB 7%
SPLK 5%
OKTA 4%
SMAR 3%
Crappy Mandatory Mutual Fund 3%
Cash less than 1%

---

In their infinite wisdom, the Board decided, excluding BZUN, that one of these stocks is not like the others. Dreamer Corp been burned recently trying to find growth stocks at a value, only to see them plummet further (NTNX, NVDA, CBLK).

So while I think they will be steady, I decided to sell SPLK after a short 5%-ish gain, and pocket the cash to either add to existing positions or bring a player off the bench. About 6% cash now.

The Board thinks we will know what to do when we see it...so the car is in neutral for now.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Redeployed the SPLK proceeds into BZUN to (hopefully) take advantage of the dip today.

Most stocks in port down big, but bzun also announced convertible stock offering that should be a non-issue LT, so felt their dip was most unwarranted.

Days like this are annoying and speak to algos/bots...it isnt like a bunch of individual investors woke up this am and said time to sell zs mdb ayx twlo etc...

Maybe also funds that want to bank q1 profits...who knows.

Doing nothing. This Q2 may be quiet on the Dreamer Corp front. I like STNE GH ACRGF ZM and others...but like the 9 companies we own. Not sure how to find room to add more.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
ZS -8%, AYX TWLO MDB -6%.
Nothing but red and down across my portfolio is wearisome.

Searching for actual news and not finding anything is what's annoying for me. I think you're right about profit taking and algorithms. The fund sellers probably buy up the same stocks at the end of the day at better prices.
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No. of Recommendations: 7
Bzun still 2nd biggest allocation, but i trimmed a bit.

10% cash now...and i like that cushion a bit better.

The Board hopes to at least tread water for a few weeks as the ERs in May start rolling in.

I can easily see a mixed ER bag the next 2 Qs...stocks priced to perfection, so execution must be solid.

Thus our "3 months and a day" post the other day. Whether to avoid being a jinx or from being too greedy, our goals for next 4 months is to at least have our stocks stay flat. Because at that point they will all have reduced their valuations by 25%, and it becomes reasonable to expect share appreciation to parallel growth eventually.

So...crappy crystal ball says great Q1, flat q2 and q3, and then finish q4 strong if/as our core stocks execute and validate their respectives thesises.

Possible exceptions could be from trade deal...maybe bzun boost. I think the onslaught of new ipo money for uber and others may neuter our atocks a bit...allowing them some time to mature into their multiple.

Still long: ttd bzun ayx twlo estc mdb zs okta and smar.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Dreamer,

I don’t think your math is correct.
If a company is growing at 50% (annually) then the stock price would need to stay flat for one year and the valuation would drop by 33%. The math would be 1-(1/1.5).

A.J.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Correct. Foiled by public school math again!

I made the mistake of thinking about % up and ascribing the same on way down.

Example is nvda went 300 to 150 which is 50% drop. Retracing back to 300 is 100% gain.

I will get the ol spreadsheet out and redo the numbers.

The general principle is/was accurate. P/S can change rapidly and you really get 2 quarters of change in just a bit over 3 months...if company executes.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Yep. If we ignore dilution (maybe not the best of ideas in the long run), assume a steady stock price and assume 50% annual sales growth, the valuation comes down 7.4% quarterly.

AJ
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No. of Recommendations: 4
The Board held a meeting, and we used Zoom teleconferencing for those that couldn't be onsite (just kidding...it doesn't matter if we used Skype or WebEx or Zoom...all the same).

Our conclusions, after great deliberation, and admittedly some doodling by yours truly on this kickass new notepad I got from this recent vendor training, are that there really isn't much to be done.

10% cash still.
Today's dips aren't material enough to use the cash. Yet.
We like that ZS and MDB came back to Earth a bit...we believe they will surge higher by EOY, but they didn't dip enough to make us want to add more.

In retrospect, we should have gotten into OKTA much earlier...oh well.
Earning season for our stocks is fast approaching and should either be catalysts for stock appreciation or buying opptys...win-win either way.

Our thoughts on today's drop? Maybe new money getting freed up for crappy IPOs like Uber and Pinterest. How is LYFT working out? Yup. Don't worry, ZM will change our world for the better! (chuckle)

As you were...that is all. We have the TA gurus out back validating parking for you.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 1
***SCANDAL***
Musk-ish moves afoot today...alert the SEC!

We lied.
Once ZS dropped past 6% down, we did buy a bit more.
So sue us.
Cash at 8-9% now.



Dreamer


ps...please don't actually sue us.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
The Board really wanted to just wake up to legalized pot this am, but will have to wait a bit longer for that day to come. As such, we lament our indecision on ACRGF while internally declaring we were right all along. We think CGC will be solid, but better to invest in companies we understand the numbers a bit better on.

While todays dips really only provide an entrance back to earlier March prices, we did add more MDB and ESTC to dwindle cash down to about 4%.

Allocation order:
Ttd bzun ayx twlo zs mdb estc okta smar cash

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 4
This meeting will come to order!
Thought it would be amusing to blow the dust off this old thread, and make updates moving forward for 2021, whether commenting on monthly or QTD results.

Interesting (embarrasing?) and perhaps constructive to look at past thoughts and port picks and see how things evolve over time. I haven't been consistent in my updates, so let's see if I can actually stick with monthly/quarterly/yearly updates on one thread.

YTD performance +37%

Montly performance
Jan +10%
Feb +24%



February - up 24%
Results
SPG outperformed my expectations in terms of timing, racing up to $121 this week, causing me to decide to sell 40% of my shares, all in non-taxable acct, to free up cash as we were seeing a Tech Rotation in parallel. The Tech rotation stalled today, so no familiar growth stocks were picked up.
I did buy a SPAC 3-Pack of SPGS-U (an SPG SPAC, duh), SFTW (Black Sky), and AACQ (Origin).
Commentary
The SPAC 3-Pack is sub-5%, so not overly significant. Basically taking a couple smaller moonshots. I do like the stories with each, but that is all they are for the moment, and this SPAC stuff could all be viewed in hindsight as foolishness...we will see. Cash is still substantial at 35%, and I am hopeful that Tech Rotation may resume. Recently my ad-tech fondness was rekindled, but TTD, MGNI, and ROKU all remain too-highly valued, imo, after their 2020 runs. Keeping my options open on legacy names in the growth space, but also actively trying to come up with a new watchlist of names like EXPI and hoping to consolidate into a smaller wishlist, which may or may not result in new Port tenants down the road. The SPG out-performance has fast-tracked my interest in looking around. I hadn't expected to sell any SPG until the Summer. Good problem to have. Current plan is still expecting $135 as SPG target "at some point" in 2021, and with an eye towards long-term gains tax status, I can't see selling in taxable account any time too soon, regardless if stock continues to over-achieve in the short-term. If $135 hits, may very well sell remaining SPG in non-taxable. Everything hinges on the idea of "is there something better to invest in" at that moment in time.
Port Composition
SPG - 58% (cost basis is $63-ish)
Cash - 35%
SPAC 3-pack - 5% (will break out if/when any of them break away from the...er...pack)
crappy mandatory mutual fund - 2%


January - up 10%
Results
finished 1st month of 2021 up 9%, after SPG repeatedly walked into a wall all session and the wall won. I will take it. When adding in dividends it was up 10%.
Commentary
Still on target...would like to see SPG around $100 around ex-dividend date for Q1 (March?)
SPG reports on Feb 8th, I believe.
Don't expect any surprises, good or bad...just looking for steady progress of rent collections and resumption towards normalcy. Some color on the Taubman acquisition plans would be good. Not expecting a dividend increase yet, but maybe in Q3/Q4.
Port Composition
SPG - 98% (cost basis was $63-ish)
Crappy mandatory mutual fund - 2%
Cash - nil

Meeting adjourned!
Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Holy crap that was an intense day.
A lot to sort through, but despite my elation I really didn't get my hands on any of the typical "Saul" stocks or legacy stocks I have owned previously (TTD, etc) as I still didn't think the prices were good enough.

How do I define "good enough"?
Do I think they can beat what I already have.

SPG is at $110 at close. My target is $135 at some point this year, which is about 22%.
Add another 4-6% in dividends, depending if shares are held rest of the year. So do I think TTD can do 25% growth from where they are? Sure, they are down 30%+ from high, so quite possible.

But I view SPG as undervalued and TTD as overvalued, so the lower risk is in the favor of SPG, from my point of view.
Same with CRWD, ZM, NET, SNOW, ROKU, MGNI, and others I looked at (and/or bought and already sold in AH) throughout the trading day today.

So here is what I wound up with, when all the dust settled:
58% SPG
21% Cash
4% VYGVF (Voyager Digital)
16% in Misc below
Misc Tier one: 2% approx in each of; SFTW (BlackSky), GHVI (Matterport), KC, SPGS.U (Simon Spac), NSH (Spire), NVDA (I know, right?)
Misc Tier two: 1% or less in each of; IPOE, XPEV, NIO, ONDS
1-2% in misc mandatory crappy mutual fund

Something like that.
For a heartbeat, I owned DDOG, CRWD, NET, TTD, MGNI, and ROKU. I would love to own them all...but at the right prices. I am sure they will all immediately go up 10-20%, but all are a bit too large, except perhaps MGNI (which I still think is sketchy) for me to visualize them doubling from here. I know CRWD is crushing it...I don't deny that they are all doing well. Just saying so much was baked into their price in 2020 that I still don't see this as THE entry point of my dreams.

I almost bought back into SPG with the cash when they hit around $108, but decided a prudent course of action would be to see what tomorrow brings.

There are a lot of newbie retail investors with their brains scrambled after today. All they have ever known is that people say stuff online (reddit, mssg boards, twitter, whatever) and things just always go up, like magic. This was a punch either in their nose or throat...either way, it hurt.

So question is, will they double-down or retreat further. Not sure it matters, as the mythical personificated "market" will do whatever it wants regardless.

Point is, a big up day or down day or nothing-burger of a day tomorrow won't shock me.
Not sure there was quite enough pain for this to be a bottom or capitulation. We don't need to hit "extreme fear" but just as a reference we only just moved into "fear" on the fear and greed index.

I am happy that my cost-average in some new/smaller names was improved.
My napkin math tells me that when I sold 40% of my position in SPG at $119.50, just 8 days ago, that I am basically up between 1-2% than if I just held it all in SPG. (which has fallen to $109-110 near close today).

So while I think NVDA mkt cap is absurd, they at least make gobs of cash and the AV era may finally be getting nearer. Plus it was a technical buy anyway. May not hold long.

All the others, outside of SPG and the EVs (NIO and XPEV, aren't terribly large mkt caps, which I like.

Port is down a bit today, as SPG was down.
At 33% YTD.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 8
Did anyone else get a tear in their eye as TTD plunged into the $500's intraday?
I came close, but didn't pull the trigger. I might do $499 but I really want $450 or less to feel like I have the future upside in the following 12-18 months to justify it.

So close!

Same with ROKU and MGNI and a few others that ran a bit too hot in the previous 6 months to make me feel like this was truly a meaningful buying dip.

BUT!!!
I did get back into growth stocks!

With the market bleeding out all over the floor, I sacrificed some lower convictions from yesterday and went after some names I felt were providing even better values at near the lows of the day.

Here is what Dreamer Corp Port looks like at the moment:

Up 34% YTD
58% SPG
19% Cash
5% VYGVF (Voyager Digital)
3.5% SFTW (BlackSky)
2.5% KC
2.5% GHVI
1.5% NVDA
1.5% U
1.5% crappy mandatory mutual fund
1% CRWD
1% DDOG
1% ZM
1% IPOE (SoFi)


If that isn't 100%, sue me...you get the idea.
And if you don't see it listed, that means I sold it.
Buh-bye China EV plays...we hardly knew ya.
Sad to see SPACs like SPGS-U and NSH get shot, but for the price/risk/upside, I just liked the combination I wound up with the best.

What now?
I think this is a win-win for me.
1. we plunge back into the depths of despair, and I swoop in with my 19% cash and 22% more cash (if needed) by way of liquidating remainder of my non-taxable SPG, and cherry-pick more of what I have or possibly add from the ad-tech gang if they go low enough.
2. we go onwards and up and to the right for next few months. I crush all in my path with the mighty gains of my 3% Saul Segment Stocks, and hopefully SPG trucks right along up to $135. If either runs too hot, may sell to guard against a sell-the-reopen-news Summer meltdown.

That is the plan anyway. Enjoy the weekend all!

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 2
The Dreamer returns to KC!!!! Read all about it!

Our KC is like a trinket on the charm bracelet portion of DW's IRA. I hadn't even noticed its recent stock performance. Currently up 52% since July purchases but down 30% since its ATH waaaay back February 11 and back to where it was.... February 1st. Might there be more carnage awaiting? My unsolicited, somewhat tarnished opinion is that cash should yet be tightly gripped. I've been selling, going back to my "what if COVID infections spike" concerns (which has cost me dearly in lost gains in recovery stocks SPG and OKE). Each wave of selling has been followed by a bounce which left me bemoaning my undisciplined reaction to those red numbers in my portfolio. But the Growth sells look pretty good now so bemoaning only my slowness in selling the growth darlings....

Right now my plain vanilla fear is stronger than my FOMO, but Dreamer has the creds now, so listen up, children.

KC
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Up 34% YTD
58% SPG
19% Cash
5% VYGVF (Voyager Digital)
3.5% SFTW (BlackSky)
2.5% KC
2.5% GHVI
1.5% NVDA
1.5% U
1.5% crappy mandatory mutual fund
1% CRWD
1% DDOG
1% ZM
1% IPOE (SoFi)

---

Up just the slightest bit for the day, still 34% YTD.
Made a couple changes.

Yeah, I know I seem all over the place, but with soooooooo many companies getting slapped upside the head, and the fact that I DON'T like holding 10+ companies normally, I keep re-rating the stocks based on upside+valuation and swapping out lower convictions as I see fit.

Today I sold: U
Today I bought: CMLF, MGNI, XPEV (again), ZM (doubled the allocation!)

CMLF - will do a separate post later, but Cathy Wood investing a lot here, essentially this is an AI/data play in the genomics space, so it, like, checks all the boxes the cool kids care about.

MGNI - still overvalued, but this was my token purchase so I can chase the falling knife and hopefully wind up at a valuation I am comfortable loading more. Prefer TTD and ROKU, but valuations are too high for my taste.

XPEV - they released earnings, and met expectations. Feb deliveries seemed weak until you factor in Chinese New Year and that they lose a couple weeks. So they seem on track. They don't need to beat Tesla or Nio in China...they just need to be a relevant player in the biggest EV market on the planet.

ZM - they dipped under $310, so bought more. Would like more under $300...let's see what happens. I am ironically getting in as Saul starts to phase it out, and it is not dissimilar to previous exits he made with SHOP or TWLO or TTD. Unless mgmt is really really dumb and lacks vision, I think they can make a smart acquisition or two, and continue to expand in a post-covid world in Education, Legal, real estate...kind of in a manner akin to Docusign making something annoying easier. Anyway, point is that I can see them becoming more, and NOT thru "Zoom phone". Maybe Zoom Phone will be the greatest rev/profit segment in the history of mankind, but you won't ever hear me touting it as a reason for buying ZM. Their forward P/S should be getting close to 25 now, I think.

U - nothing against it...just feel that it isn't a smaller company and I think it will grow, but perhaps not as lightning fast as XPEV, MGNI, or CMLF.

I made those purchases via selling U and some of my cash.
Cash now 15%.
Pseudo cash (aka I could sell some SPG if needed) is at 22%.

Player of the Day: VYGVF was up solid most of day...go crypto traders!
Honorable Mention: SPG was up slightly for the day, providing an every reliable port in the storm.
Schmuck of the day: KC (the stock). What the hell, bro...I get back in and you tank? Sheesh.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 3
when MGNI is up 18%, you know the market is anything but efficient and rational.
Took the profits on: zm crwd mgni xpev nvda ddog
Trimmed down VYGVF and SFTW a bit.

This leaves me with 30% cash and a few SPAC moonshots; ipoe sftw ghvi, cmlf, and crypto play vygvf

I may not get another chance at those 2020 growth favorites, but maybe I will.
This seems like a headfake bounce...just my gut feeling, which is notoriously inaccurate.

I can't recall too many days where Nasdaq has been up more than 3.6% on a day, so I called it an early high and sold those names into strength.

Made a profit on everything but KC, which was a minimal loss.

All in all, I sold 40% of my SPG about 3 weeks back, at $119. Stock is currently at $110.
In the meantime, my total port is up an adjusted 3% if I had just left those SPG shares alone.

So I gain 3%, plus I can now reinvest back into SPG at lower price if I choose, as I still like my $135 target price, and I think the re-open trade has another leg or two, as we know normalcy is coming, but it isn't quite slapping people in the face with obviousness yet.

Simply put...getting back to Fall 2020 prices still didn't make those stocks cheap, as at that point, they had still run far higher than their growth rates.


Dreamer

up 36% YTD
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No. of Recommendations: 0
bought SPG with my cash in AH yesterday.

Port now up 40% YTD.

Nasdaq had hints of throwing up later in the day, but it never quite happened.
Wondering if tomorrow is a "sell the news" day for the stimulus being passed, which could be bad for SPG, but decided to just let it roll.

At recent downward peak of market selling on Monday, I don't think I ever fell under 30% YTD, and mostly stayed above 32% YTD.

So way I am thinking of it is that if 2020 Momentum Rotation hits hard again Thurs/Friday, and SPG gets dragged down a bit, I have a nice buffer built up.

Just a matter of whether we just retest the recent lows in things like MGNI and DDOG, or if we go a leg lower, which would be enticing to me.

So using SPG as a savings account with bi-lateral interest rates, to dip into for cash as needed if growth names present an opportunity again soon. Otherwise, trying to be patient and letting market and prices I want come to me. Not going to chase.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 2
bought SPG with my cash in AH yesterday.

Port now up 40% YTD.

---

Pared a bit into strength.

Now back to 19% cash.

Up 42% YTD.

Still mainly SPG and some lil' buddies.

VYGVF - crypto play
GHVI, IPOE, SFTW, and CMLF are my SPAC plays...IPOE is SoFi (Fintech) and the rest are essentially data plays in different verticals of Space, real estate/construction, and bio/genomics.

Apparently hyper-growth are right back up to 40-50 P/S+ valuations. TTD was $550 a couple trading days ago, and now $750. No news. No change in fundamentals. Just crazy algo-enhanced/retail-momo insanity out there.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
The insanity is not taking advantage and then wingeing about it. Naturally, if you had done similar, would be front page news and might see your port at 50% or whatever..
Zzzzzz. 🙃

Incoming, I’ll just get my coat.

---

Nice try, troll.
I did buy the growth stocks and sold when MGNI popped 18% in a day.

Hurry back now...Saul's ass needs kissing.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 7
The funny thing about this Dreamer, great name, is that you were the first person who put me onto TTD so I have you to thank for. However, you just have to reply with uncalled for comments as in your “Saul” quote and surely that’s not necessary.
My main point though to you which you appear unable to comprehend is that sometimes with the right Company it just pays to hold them rather than banging the drum about momo etc, rightly or wrongly.

Civilised reply if you are able.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Now back to 19% cash.

Up 42% YTD.

Still mainly SPG and some lil' buddies.

VYGVF - crypto play
GHVI, IPOE, SFTW, and CMLF are my SPAC plays...IPOE is SoFi (Fintech) and the rest are essentially data plays in different verticals of Space, real estate/construction, and bio/genomics.


---

Now up to 22.5% cash
Up to 44% YTD.

Same stocks, just pared a bit of SPG into the strong close today. I had used all my cash earlier in the week at $110-111, and sold some yesterday at $115+ and some today near $118.

SPG back down now to 66% of port.
I am trading around my core, so far successfully, to increase my cash position organically, to hopefully take advantage of any meaningful market dips. Today was barely a scratch, and after 2 big "Up" days for growth this week, it will take some heavy selling to get back to retesting those recent lows for growth stocks like MGNI, DDOG, ZM, CRWD, U, NVDA, TTD, and ROKU. Since I already have some smaller mkt caps via Voyager and the SPACs, those more familiar growth names are my key targets on meaningful weakness.

If VYGVF and the SPACs get meaningfully hit down, I would add there too. Right now they are all up from my cost basis and since I think the up/down Nasdaq thing could play out for weeks or months, I don't feel like it is the right time to go heavier in them just yet. They all fell hard when growth fell last week and Monday.

So let's see what Monday brings.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
sold CMLF and GHVI for gains, and to bolster cash. Will buy back lower later, if able.
sold another chunk of SPG near $119 to further bolster cash.

sitting at up 45% YTD.

Cash up to 40%


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
didn't sell SFTW because it is already close to NAV being at $11+, so downside is more limited.
didn't sell IPOE because SoFi is a bit of a cult stock, so the followers help keep it moving, plus they made some news/progress towards their national bank charter.

Really thought about VYGVF, as up 33% already, but this is a true moonshot, and I am hesitant to time an exit back here. Will just stomach the volatility and add if notably lower down the road.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Sold remaining SPG in non-taxable account at $119.9, folks.
Buy low, sell high.

Not touching taxable until long-term tax rate kicks in, and maybe still not even then, to allow tax hit to rollover into 2022. Will see how it goes.

If SPG plummets due to market plunge, I may go right back in again.

For now, it will be a tale of two Ports...all SPG in taxable and tbd in non-taxable.

55% cash
37% SPG
8% in misc lil growth buddies and crappy mandatory mutual fund

up 46% YTD. Gunning for the candy cane mic.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 1
For now, it will be a tale of two Ports...all SPG in taxable and tbd in non-taxable.

55% cash
37% SPG
8% in misc lil growth buddies and crappy mandatory mutual fund

up 46% YTD. Gunning for the candy cane mic.

---

Bought the tiniest smidgen of SFTW as it dipped.
If my public school math was correct, I think the stock price is sitting under 14x 2022 projected revenues. Bottom-line, I believe this has a path to a 40% gain near end of 2022, IF it can be given a 20 P/S. The revenue growth is expected to be near/above 100% y/y, so you would think the P/S is easily doable, IF the company executes and hits those revenue projections for both this year and next. Point is, the closer it gets to $10/share, the more it seems to have a fairly stable floor.

Moved 22% of port into SPGSU (Simon SPAC) for more potential upside but the relative downside of cash.
Cash at something like 32%

Thought about stuff, but nothing overly compelling occurred.
So far my moves yesterday were timely, as everything I sold yesterday was lower today. (yay me)

Will the markets use Powell speech as convenient excuse for a volatile day tomorrow? We will see!


Dreamer, up 45% YTD
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No. of Recommendations: 1
"up 46% YTD. Gunning for the candy cane mic."

Dreamer,

I'm finding out how little I really know, while getting a kick out of watching you operate. Been with MF just a bit over 6 months. Thought I was doing pretty well when back on Feb-12 was up 50% (since the end of Oct of last year), with 36% of that made this year. Then comes the recent dip. I find myself setting at 21% (total portfolio), and thinking not much else to do but ride it out (maybe do a little "Putnid" red/green on the side.)
To see someone like yourself who has been around the block a few times, effortlessly weave right through volatility, gloom & doom, and still grow the bottom line RIGHT THROUGH IT ALL; that's quite impressive! As well, I see that after using cash to full advantage, in a flash you are back into it again, ready on the edge prepared already for the next landslide.
I'm a believer in having some cash to buy dips, but now see I don't keep enough loose, am way too impulsive, buying in too early, and missing out on opportunity right in front of me.
Thanks to You and Putnid for showing us newbies that there are a some "out of the box" possibilities to consider.
pj
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I am just a guy on the internet.

Take the info you find, combine it with your dd, your risk preferences, your goals...and come up with what works for you and lets you sleep at night.

I think there is value in crowdsourcing...to a point.

When everyone seems to own the same stuff and they cant give you a nuanced reasoning of why they expect stock price to get to X target by Y date, then i just get leery a bit.

Like i bet 90% of mgni retail investors cant tell me difference between dsp and ssp or svod vs avod, nor can they explain why TTD's success has any relevance to mgni.

So they may be right...just for all the wrong reasons.

I would rather be good than lucky.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Interesting day with Olo IPO and Fed meeting.

Port now is:


47% SPGSU (Simon SPAC) as a place to park cash that also gives upside if acquisition announced, but low floor.

35% SPG shares (taxable acct...hoping for $135+ and may hold until 2022)

5% VYGVF aka Voyager Digital, vryoto broker, sub-$3b mkt cap.

4% OLO - new IPO today. Roughly $4b mkt cap. Wish it would have launched at lower price, but that was unlikely with SaaS IPOs dating back to 2019 launching high.

3% SFTW aka BlackSky space/data SPAC. Sub-$2b mkt cap, i believe.

2.5% actual cash trying to bottom-fish w limit orders.

1.5% crappy mandatory mutual fund.

1% IPOE aka SoFi, fintech SPAC hoping to be a bank.

I am not sure we get a big Tech Rotation again anytime soon. Also didnt feel valuations were low enough to be enticing, for me.

So 84.5% of my port is essentially my pseudo cash pool, IF valuations become compelling to me on things like zm crwd nvda u ttd roku mgni.

I do think SPG and SPGSU bith still have upside. So it is my 2021 take on "Better Than Cash" stocks.

Up 47% YTD, so not looking to lose those early gains...but hopefully slowly build on top of it as year goes on.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 3
I finished green and hovering a bit over 46% YTD. Going to need some catalysts to finally break over the 50% YTD mark, and outside of Voyager going crazy or Simon announcing an acquisition target with their SPAC, I am fairly dependent on SPG to move the needle still, even though it is only 35% of my port at moment, as I am mostly in Better-Than-Cash alternatives.

One interesting thing happened today, for first time in a long time: SPG went down but I still finished green. This was largely due to good showings from Voyager (VYGVF) and from where I parked most of my cash horde: SPGSU.

On another board, I was given an interesting idea on place to park cash with upside: KAHCUN
This is a pre-acquisition SPAC, led by Glenn Murphy who leads the Lululemon board now and was previously CEO of Gap. Partnered with KKR. So basically this is a play, similar to the Simon SPAC, where if you believe the mgmt is competent and will generate good ROI with their acquisition target, then you feel good about the floor not really going under the $10 SPAC starting amount. This particular stock is very low, around $10.02. Every 10 cents is equivalent to a 1% move. Every dollar is equivalent to a 10% move, from original $10 SPAC launch price. More details on the SPAC below, but I decided to put some of my cash over there to balance out SPGSU a bit.

https://docoh.com/filing/1843212/0001140361-21-003439/KAHC-S...

We have not selected any specific business combination target and we have not, nor has anyone on our behalf, engaged in any substantive discussions, directly or indirectly, with any business combination target with respect to an initial business combination with us.
We are sponsored by KKR in partnership with Glenn Murphy, our Chief Executive Officer and Executive Chairman. We believe that the combined resources and expertise of KKR and Mr. Murphy will provide us a strong competitive advantage as we source, diligence and operate our future business combination, providing a differentiated value-creation opportunity for our shareholders. While we may pursue an acquisition opportunity in any business industry or sector, we intend to capitalize on our ability to identify, acquire and manage a business in the consumer or retail industries.
Mr. Murphy is a well-known consumer and retail industry veteran with more than 30 years of experience in senior leadership roles managing and investing in diverse businesses and brands and a history of partnering with KKR. Mr. Murphy’s industry expertise encompasses several categories, including apparel, health and beauty, food retail and hospitality. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors of Lululemon. He previously served as Chairman and CEO of Gap Inc. from 2007 to 2014. Before that, he held other senior leadership roles, including as Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO of Shoppers Drug Mart. Most recently, he founded FIS Holdings, a high-impact consumer-focused investment firm that has made significant investments including Lululemon, Aimbridge Hospitality, Whole Foods Market and Bloomin’ Brands.
Founded in 1976, KKR is a leading global investment firm that manages multiple alternative asset classes including private equity, credit and real assets, with strategic partners that manage hedge funds. KKR aims to generate attractive investment returns for its investors by following a patient and disciplined investment approach, employing high-quality people, and driving growth and value creation with its portfolio companies. KKR invests its own capital alongside the capital it manages for fund investors and provides financing solutions and investment opportunities through its capital markets business. KKR has four decades of private equity investing experience, and we believe that the combination of KKR’s industry knowledge, investment experience and operational expertise provides it with an edge in identifying and creating value in investment opportunities. KKR has access to significant opportunities for making investments as a result of its sizable capital base, global platform, and relationships with leading executives from major companies, commercial and investment banks, and other investment and advisory institutions. KKR & Co. Inc. is listed on The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: KKR).
KKR has a strong track record of growth, demonstrated by its global footprint and range of funds and investment strategies:

• $234 billion assets under management as of September 30, 2020
• Over 50 flagship investment funds raised since inception, including 28 private equity funds (including growth equity)
• Over 100 portfolio companies in KKR’s private equity funds


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I sold 2/3rds of my OLO on this morning's pop...a wash.
Kept just under 1% allocation, so I can/will track it.

Thought about it over the weekend and everything seems to point to a lot of volatility next couple of months, and if I don't expect any material gains from OLO anytime soon (as they debuted expensive) then it doesn't seem a good use of funds vs in cash or Better-than-Cash alternatives.

Thought about selling IPOE (SoFi) but it is already 1% allocation size, so will just hang on for same reason as OLO: I like the company and longer-term view. I also like SoFi's optionality with bank/trading, and feel like it is the start (or end?) of a mini-basked along with VYGVF (Voyager Digital) of trading brokers that the younger generations like to use.

I am all about being hip like the kids, as everyone knows.

I sort of expect to tread water for a while, until something notable happens, either in form of market correction to deploy cash, or in SPG resuming their climb, or in SPGSU declaring their acquisition target. Ok with sitting on my hands for a bit, and letting market come to me.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I am waffling a bit.
Basically don't trust this market yet.

Sold my small IPOE and OLO stakes.
Like them both, but like OLO better, just not at this price so early on. Will hope to get in on a market downturn and/or if/as the recent IPO follows a typical pattern of being lower a month or two down the road whether due to lockup expiration pressures, etc...

Down to 43% gains, as SPG has been beaten up.
If SPG falls further (sub-$110) I will seriously start thinking of buying again. It has worked for me twice now to sell SPG at/near $119. Trading around a core position and all that jazz.

My lil' buddy VYGVF nose-dived yesterday and today, after hitting almost a 100% gain for me. Let's see if it can rebound.

I have cash and pseudo cash out the wazoo.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 3
ok...perhaps we are nearing another run at a nasdaq/tech correction, or perhaps we are entering a new normal of turbulent churn.

If the latter, that bodes well for stocks decently-valuated that execute fundamentally. I think/hope.

Thought about buying at lows today, but instead I mainly finished shifting cash into near-NAV SPACs as a parking place for cash that can still potentially earn me an upside pop while (hopefully) limiting downside quite a bit. (SPGSU, KAHCUN)

My little rocketship VYGVF had a horrible day, but still up from when I bought chunks around $12 back on March 5th recent low. No change there...letting this one ride, barring something fundamentally materially coming to light.

SFTW is near-NAV, but I invested bc I like the upside of the Space/Data SPAC, but it hasn't done too much lately.

SPG was down under $110, which made me itchy to re-buy some of the shares I have sold (twice now) at $119 or so. But I noted that on March 5th it got down to $104, so I can't really say this is a mammoth drop.

Add it all up, and I am 92%+ in SPG or Better-than-Cash SPACs...sheesh.
While many on my "Buy on a material dip" list were down today, none came really that close to recent March 5th lows. So it is all relative to me...why should I consider it a dip when a few weeks ago it was even lower, and I didn't go all in then?

I don't really follow the Russell 2000, but noted it was down 4% today, which seemed a lot for an index. Also noted that the mega-cap Techs aren't all that far off recent ATH's...so they are holding up the Nasdaq artificially, and if they have a bad couple of days, they probably drag everything down with it.

Technical trading is not my forte. These are more gut or commonsense senses I am speaking to.

2020 was an overbought tech/saas/cloud move.
Late 2020 the re-open trades started in earnest.
Early 2021, everything was up.
March 2021...not sure...I have seen things online from people that are supposedly knowledgeable about these sort of things that this is all a giant "reversion to the mean" and another that stated the market was "no longer an index play, and was a stock picker's market moving forward".

The latter comment speaks to me a bit. When was the last time you seemed to have your stocks disconnected from the market or "other stocks like it"? Feels like we have been in this lockstep motion since covid bottom. You can almost scan CNBC or your Yahoo Finance page about 30 minutes after market opens, and if Nasdaq is up 1% or more, you know the growth stocks are at 3-4% up across the board, and vice-versa.

Either way, a reversion to the mean bodes well for SPG and value that is still off pre-covid levels. So that makes me feel ok. And if we are in a stock picker's market, that makes me feel ok too. Although it sure seems like the market is still lurching around a bit. Almost like it needs to finally puke hard and shake out retail one more time, with extreme prejudice, and then maybe we go to a low-volatility era where the market just kind of does a nice and easy 9 steps forward and 8 steps back...creeping ahead over time, but not in an obnoxious way, allowing investors to once again invest in stocks based on fundamentals and not momentum run amok.

Wouldn't that be nice.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 1
glad I sold the OLO and IPOE yesterday, not that it was a big part of my port.

I got knocked around today, largely due to VYGVF just getting dropped repeatedly from a high building.
I am content to let that one ride up and down though, as I consider the crypto/trader angle to be mostly uncoupled from broader tech/growth market. At least eventually. Plus I added last time near $12 on March 5th, so even though it has collapsed to $18 from about $26 or so last week. I would probably add more if it got that low again, but not too much.

Did nothing else, except get some cash at the ready from my better-than-cash choices (KAHCU and SPGSU).

I am down to barely 40% YTD (ok...39.6%)
So my thought process on having "low floors" has worked out so far.

Now just a matter if I wind up deploying/allocating in a timely manner or not.
I wasn't ready to pull the trigger today, since nothing was worse than March 5th lows (yet).


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 2
bought some CRWD...lower than March 5th price. Swing trade
bought some Viacom and Discovery as bounce trades.
Bought more VYGVF due to their announcement yesterday in raising guidance and expecting those improved results quicker (2023 vs 2025) which was very bullish. This is still a HIGH-risk/HIGH-reward play, and may add on material dips.

Thought about sub-$300 ROKU and sub-$40 MGNI, but couldn't quite pull trigger.

Thought about some SPACs that are lower than where I initially previously bought and sold, like CMLF, but decided there is enough anti-SPAC sentiment out there that may linger, so no rush to jump back in yet to that or IPOE or GHVI. Hoping to get them lower...we will see.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 1
ok...a little bit of activity today, but nothing too crazy.

SPGSU 44% (pseudo cash with potential pop upside)
SPG 35%
VYGVF 6.5% (moonshot, high-risk/high-reward)
SFTW 3% (BlackSky spac...space/data play, near $10 NAV, so hopefully low floor, newer SaaS space co)
CRWD 1.5% swing trade
VIAC 1.5% bounce trade
DISCA 1.5% bounce trade
crappy mandatory mutual fund 1.5%
Cash 4.5%

something like that.

Tons are on my radar...both new SPACs, OLO, and old friends like TTD, and Saul stocks. If I like the price, will jump on it down the road.

We had some growth stock drawdowns...some matched March 5th lows, but many did not. So wasn't necessarily a "new buying dip oppty" in my view. Doesn't mean they all won't go on a 20-30% tear from these levels, as they certainly might. Just not enticing enough for all-in bigger moves on my part. (yet)

Up 44% YTD.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Dreamer-

I like the bounce trades...thought about those two and VYGVF but didn't pull the trigger today. Kind of regret not getting VYGVF...as an addition to my GBTC holding.

I also looked at MGNI and Bought $300 ROKU.

Still hold IPOE and HAACU in the SPAC space,both lower than my purchase price...

Kind of interesting to me that we were thinking along the same line. Have a great weekend!

5
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No. of Recommendations: 0
sold Viacom/Discovery bounce plays for minor gain.
sold CRWD for minor gain.

I am just going to wait for a crap-the-pants extreme fear moment, which may not come.

In the meantime, I started to buy GNPK aka Redwire, an existing space company that is actually expected to do over $150m in rev in 2021...so legit and current. Excited about this one, but more DD to do. So I bought starter 1% stake and will add on dips or as I learn/like more.

Outside of Voyager (VYGVF) and a couple minor space SPAC allocations, this is largely an SPG and pseudo cash port at moment.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I j8umped on the VIAC wagon for a quick options turn. STO yesterday and BTC today for 50% profit...April 30 $40 Put. If I had more swagger I'd have made a bunch, but alas...

5
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No. of Recommendations: 4
I was reading about ICEYE, a BlackSky competitor on an online article, and was reminded how competitive that space is.

Ever since stumbling across GNPK aka Redwire, which is a profitable existing space holding company with decent revenue ($160m+ expected this year), I have had less patience for the much higher-valued SFTW aka Blacksky.

I finally sold my paltry 1% SFTW allocation. I am sure Cathie Wood will now buy it heavily for her Space ETF. Que sera sera.

OLO was smacked down by headlines of the Doordash lawsuit, which was already known and disclosed in their S1 IPO filing...so unclear what made this "news" today. Either way, OLO said the claims were baseless. Doordash is under contract for another year and they are a big existing client for OLO. So unclear what happens a year from now. My gut says this is posturing from DoorDash, who is coming back to reality now that covid is subsiding, and who was/is overvalued. The fact that they are picking on little ol OLO seems an oddly bullish indicator. Anyway, I took the oppty to get shares at $27 when they IPOd a week or so back above $30. Still very expensive, and I kind of hope they drop to $22 or less to accumulate more.

With growth stocks getting a reprieve today, and not quite ever getting cheap enough for me to buy with the recent drawdowns, I chose instead to buy a bit more of GNPK (Redwire) and Voyager (VYGVF).

Port looks like:

47% SPGSU (Simon SPAC as a "better-than-cash" place to park funds and get a possible pop in the meantime)
35% SPG
8% VYGVF (Voyager Digital)
6.5% GNPK (Redwire SPAC)
2.8% OLO
1.6% crappy mandatory mutual fund

something like that.
I am still hopeful we get some real drawdowns and material and meaningful dips in the legacy growth stocks and others that I like and would own at better prices. But we may be starting a new uptrend. If so, oh well. I will bide my time for the right opps.

Up 44% YTD. Been up and down a couple percent for a few weeks now.
I can't seem to find my final Feb update, but looks like I was around mid 30's% YTD at that point.
So March was a good month, although seems like I have just been treading water the past two weeks.

On to April!

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 2
added a small CXW 2% allocation position today, after reading an interesting article on Seeking Alpha.
Basically it is a beaten-down stock that hasn't come back like so many others out there, plus it is private-prison related, which is not ideal in a Biden admin, so uncertainty is high.

Like investing in a mall REIT in middle of a pandemic...that kind of uncertainty hopefully.

Still can't find too much compelling out there, valuation-wise.
Made a couple bucks today, but essentially flat, so still at ATH.

Voyager (VYGVF) posted great March sequential metrics compared to Feb, and promptly sold off on the news. Thought about buying, but think I may let it sink or swim at the current allocation. They won't have their next ER until late May (for Jan-March Q) but they have multiple conferences they will be at thru April, so plenty of opps to drop tidbits about how things are going leading up to ER.

SPG climbed a bit today.
SPGSU is just a big fat drunk guy that refuses to move from his trusty bar stool. He seems in no danger of falling over, but he isn't in a hurry to go anywhere either, it seems.


Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Did I say I bought CXW yesterday? (nervous chuckle)
I meant today, at the low...of course. Yep.

I sold OLO on a green day, as I think I can continue to get it lower later...bit of a risk that it could get away from me, but wanted to offset the CXW drop.

As for CXW, I will probably let it bounce back (hopefully) vs add more.

Dreamer
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Well.
That pretty much sucked.

Bought CXW and it dropped 17% the next day. Luckily it was a small allocation, but still annoying that I missed out on much better entry point...grrr.

Then VYGVF decided to pull a hissy fit along with most things blockchain today. I did add a bit just under $24. Could easily go lower, as I bought this at about $12 a month ago.

So my port dropped ALL THE WAY down to 45% YTD. So I can't complain too much.
I sold OLO around $29 for an 8% gain. Will look to rinse and repeat. I think it is a really good company, but the IPO price is very rich, and I think we can get in closer to $20 over time.

SPG was up today...so my taxable account was in the green and my 401k puked a bit.
Twice now, I sold SPG in my 401k when it hit $119 area. It is $117 now. My napkin math says those trades still worked out in my favor (vs just having never sold SPG at all) as my SPG swing trade was profitable and little things like VYGVF have contributed more to my port than SPG would have (since I sold it).

But it does feel like my taxable account is sipping back a few beers on the beach, laughing at all the effort my 401k is exerting, for not a whole lot of extra gain.

Hoping Voyager snaps back tomorrow. I think CXW got largely brought down by a competitor's bad news (GEO) today, and hopefully it bounces back quick. With that large of a deficit after 1 day, I may just sell when I get close to break even and call it a day.

That candy-cane striped mic just keeps eluding my grasp, for the moment.

Dreamer
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