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No. of Recommendations: 3

I don't think you need encouragement from me, but I would second the thought that you maintain the cash. You don't need (well, I don't know your situation) to squeeze the last ounce of this "dip". Catch it on "up and to the right" phase.

We may be close to the bottom, but then again we might not be. As you say, there are no metrics to hand a hat on. EV/S is whatever the market says it should be. There is no "there" there. Based on recent history, there is still room to fall. Fear/greed index is at "regular" low, but at the end of 2018/beginning 2019 the index was about 2. Hit that again at COVID time in Feb/March 2020. We are now at about 20, a level we had in May 2019 (17), October 2020 (25), and May 2021 (17 or 18). I'm just estimating these numbers from a CNBC chart which you can see at:

I am stuck in a ride-it-out mode because I have 12% cash and treasuries and I will withdraw 5.3% required minimum distribution. So, you know, I have 6% cash. Zigged when I should have zagged. I sold three positions and then built up DOCN, MNDY and ZS and then a little CRWD. Pigs get slaughtered comes to mind because I was up over 40% but I was chasing an unlikely 50%.

We are at 20 on fear-and-greed. Yes, it has gone down to 2. But I think (THINK) that fear-and-greed at 2 has certainly been unsustainable. When we went to that level we were below 20 for about 2 months. From 20 back to 40 was as little as 2 months and up to 3. I wasn't watching this index, my bad. When I used up my cash cushion, the index was over 80, and I was all-in with that....50%!!!! Ouch. I'll see if I remember this lesson when I am 82 or 83, or even next year (we exceeded 80 in December '19, November 20, and November '21). I hope to see it again in 2022.

I think that is all the time I care to donate to the discussion. Saxophone beckons and I have data entry to do for the charitable cause. Sigh.

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