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DT, very cool discussion. As I mentioned previously, I really don't get that granular in my research.

I asked your question and comments to several people, and prefaced it with this, "The person who wrote the original question lives in Canada. I think he/she is fairly fluent in cannabis investing, and has been short for at least a year now. Certainly no great shakes, but I think worth sharing."

This is a response to your question I asked several cannabis investors, and/or industry insiders.

Response from industry insider:

"If I was going to tell you in short, it will be like beer and alcohol. There will be mass produced low quality product available for under $1 per gram, and there will be craft type stuff and up. The branded product is what will hold the value. Not the actual input (cannabis) itself, if it isn't attached to a brand. Think Absolute versus Svedka, or Everclear versus branded single malt whiskey. It's all alcohol, but it's brand and quality that dictates the price. Once supply and demand have time to mature, in all markets after legalization. I think prices will stay higher without interstate commerce, in states like Michigan, that have less access to greenhouse and outdoor production, and need to rely on indoor grow."

I responded, and will possibly hear back the following, "I guess and argument would be that cannabis could be grown outdoors in a state like Florida, and shipped anywhere, as they do tobacco. Of course that would require laws changing, and legalization, but isn't that possible, and even probable, allowing interstate and international commerce? Similar to our current rules of alcohol and tobacco, and anything else? If that is the case, what do you think would happen to pricing of cannabis?"

This was this industry insider's final response to my question: "As long as supply met demand, which I think it easily would after a short transition period, I think prices would commoditize and the value would be in the branded product. No reason for prices to be high, except for quality, marketing, and/or taxes."

Several cannabis investors responded:

"Often, maybe always, the value of something is worth whatever people will pay for it. If basil went for $5-12 a gram then people would just stop buying basil except maybe on very special occasions like a wedding anniversary. Also, the price cannot be so low that it makes the business not profitable."

"Can you get high from Saffron? If so...I'd buy it for that price. Even a lot higher. Trying to understand your comparison."

"That seems like a ridiculous comparison since cannabis has so many medicinal uses and benefits compared to seasoning herbs. I wonder if this person has even used cannabis. The only thing valid in the comparison is that they are both plants. Can't imagine cannabis ever selling at a commodity price like bulk oregano or basil."

"If you're a CPG company u want cannabis as cheap as u can get it because it will increase your margin. Look at cannabis as a ingredient when it comes to CPGs. When it comes to CPGs that make claims, look at cannabis, or cannabinoids, as you would vitamins. When you combine cannabinoids A and B together you create a outcome that will help u sleep for example. Doesn't matter how cheap cannabis becomes when its used as a ingredient."


I think much of above is food for thought.
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