dwot,

 

First off, I seriously enjoyed reading your analysis and think it's great the amount of effort you have put in. This is an industry that I do not know well at all, which is why I've never invested in it (and missed out on quite some pretty profits these past few years). So I don't feel particularly skilled at assessing your analysis, unfortunately.

 

But maybe a couple perspectives I can share.

 

First, and this is really tangential to the point of your piece but is connected to my second point, so I'll mention it, and that is that you denigrate Google in an offhand shot about halfway through. For my part, I would not denigrate Google. Google has a tremendously rich future in front of it, and is already spinning out ridiculous amounts of cash at growth rates that few businesses, in the history of the world, have ever attained at such scale. So rather than condemn or write off Google, I think you should respect it, and you might even learn something from it. We've all missed a four-bagger (I too) in this stock in the past few years. I don't think this is a fluke; I *do* think we should make sure we've learned something, something more than just "crap crash and burn earnings."

 

Now, my second point is that you don't spend much time assessing risks in your buy recommendation. You denigrate Google (to hook back to the first point) but you do not spend any time denigrating Northern Orion. Mind you, it's your favorite stock, right? So I don't exactly expect you to call it "crash and burn." But your argument would be stronger if you were able to demonstrate recognition and knowledge of, say, "The Three Things That Could Go Wrong." Identify and call out those three things, and then (a) spend time explaining why you don't think they will happen, or even if they do it'll still be a good stock, or what are the probabilities of these happening, etc., and (b) ensure that the tone -- which should match your thinking, by the way -- ultimately allows for, and reflects, a willingness to believe you could be wrong.

 

Outside of those brief thoughts, I am going to do a bit more research on this stock itself, because I like your thinking and you've laid out a very compelling case.

 

Fool on! --David Gardner