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Innovex has said a few times that it's comfortable with the 70 cent per share estimate, so perhaps a somewhat cautious scenario is:

YTD $1.08 EPS
Q3 $0 .70
Q4 $0 .67

(Q4 four is marked down just to manage expectations on the conservative side. The company said the quarter will currently be flat to down if orders don't pick up, so let's go with slightly down.) That still gives $2.45 per share, or a 10.81 trailing P/E at the current $26.50 stock price.

Let's knock off another $0.05 and say $2.40 total, so only $1.32 for the rest of the year, or $0.66 per quarter on average (that feels quite conservative, especially as 70 cents for this quarter is already pretty much in the bag). Then we have -- at $26.50 per share -- a trailing P/E multiple of 11.04.

The $2.30 estimate for the year ended September must be out-dated. It needs to be raised, of course. $2.84 estimated is for next year. Too low if the company is really cranking out 18 million lead wire assemblies per week by then. It will probably average about 12.5 million per week this fiscal year, if that many. It's currently doing more than that per week -- about 13 million. That total average is just my thumbnail guess, but either way 1998 looks to be significantly higher output, if projections are met, and earnings estimates look to be substantially conservative if prices remain steady.


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