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No. of Recommendations: 4
More #8 vs #9 Tournament Facts:

* The 8 seed has reached the National Championship game 3 times and has won it once when Villanova beat #1 seed Georgetown.

* The best a 9 seed has ever done is to reach the Final Four in 2013 When Wichita State then
losing to #1 seed Louisville.

Here are the All Time #8 seed Won/Loss Records:

First Round.: 69 - 67
Second Round: 13 - 55
Sweet 16....: 8 - 5
Elite 8.....: 5 - 3
Final Four..: 3 - 2
Championship: 1 - 2

Here are the All Time #9 seed Won/Loss Records:

First Round: 67 - 69
Second Round: 7 - 61
Sweet 16....: 4 - 3
Elite 8.....: 1 - 2
Final Four..: 0 - 1
Championship: 0 - 0

Note: These records based on the best data available.

When most people fill out their NCAA Brackets there are two games in particular that can make or break their brackets in the very first round. The 8 vs 9 game is one of them because it breaks almost 50/50.

In this match we have NIO - a key player in the massive Chinese EV market with Global aspirations; against MGNI - a rising star in its own right as an independent platform for sell-side advertising. Some have called it the TTD of the Sell Side. They have work to do to get there.

Should be a good match with two determining themes: 1) Do Mongoose folks really buy the MGNI is really the new TTD; and, 2) Even if Mongoosians are knee deep in the EV Revolution does NIO lose votes for being a Chinese company. (Still smarting from Luckin Coffee here)

..............................EAST REGIONAL: #8 MGNI vs #9 NIO..............................

#8 MGNI - The Sell-Side Advertising Platform TTD.

From their Website:

"Magnite is the world's largest independent sell-side ad platform. We'll help you win across every channel, every format and on your terms."

"Since we're not in competition with you, we work for you."

"You won't find an walls (or hidden fees) around our garden, so everything you spend goes further."

Investor Relations:

Data Points:

Current Price: $44.22
Range: $4.09 - 64.39
About 31% Below its High
+44% YTD
Market Cap: $5.11B

The company last reported Q4 2020 on 2/26 with a solid Beat on Non-GAAP EPS of 4 Cents and a Beat on Revenue by $5.3M. Revenue Growth clocked in at 69.1% Y/Y. Additional Report Highlights included:

* CTV Revenue was up 53% (Pro Forma basis)
* Online Video Revenue grew 35% Y/Y (Pro Forma Basis)
* Net Income came in at $5.9M compared to $1.5M in the year ago quarter.
* Provided very strong Guidance moving forward.

CEO Quote CC quote:

"As linear TV spend accelerates its move to ad-supported TV, we believe growth from this secular trend will fuel our growth for the foreseeable future. SpotX is an important strategic win for Magnite and our customers, and is fast growing and highly profitable." Details about the SpotX acquisition here:

More Details on the Q4 report here:

Scouting Reports:

If everything we hear about the massive move of Linear TV to ad-based content comes about then MGNI is right in the sweet spot and might just become the new TTD. Could happen. But then - what would that make the old TTD? These things can be confusing.


#9 NIO - China Based Rising Star in the EV Revolution.

Note: China is a very big country. Besides China they sell their EVs in Hong Kong, the U.S. Britain and Germany. Those Global aspirations might just give it an edge over that TTD wannabe.

NIO is like any other EV Manufacturing company but with a twist: it offers a recurring revenue BaaS - Battery as a Service, (They call it Power Swap which is sort of poor marketing: I would have called it KAZAAM and GO with a little lightning symbol - or perhaps some snappy easy to remember acronym (Car buyers love acronyms plastered on the rear end of their vehicles) - or something snappy like that. Might contact them about it.) Whatever.

Here is the NIO Investor Relations website:

Here is what they say about themselves:

: NIO..not Golf EV go zoom zoom." I just made that up. Here is what they really say:

"NIO's Chinese name, which translates to "Blue Sky Coming" originated from our vision of a future filled with blue skies. Our mission is to shape a joyful lifestyle by offering premium smart electric vehicles and being the best user enterprise."

Data Points:

Current Price: $43.34 (Intraday)
Range: 2.11 - 66.99

Note: $2.11...really? Where the heck was I...sigh!

About 35% Below its High
YTD Performance: -11.1%
Market Cap: $67.7B +/-

So..How they doing?

The company last reported Q4 2020 on March 1, with disappointing results: They missed on EPS by 10 Cents and they missed on Revenue by $10.2M or so. So what? The important thing here is home market penetration, international expansion and EV Deliveries.

A brief overview of Deliveries:

Q1 2020 3,838 Vehicles Delivered
Q2 2020 10,331
Q3 2020 12,206
Q4 2020 17,353

Projected Q1 2021: 20,000+ representing 16 -18% Q/Q.

Note: An industry wide chip shortage may impact NIO for a month or two.

Report Details here:

Scouting Reports:

OK, so NIO stubbed its toe in it's latest report - but, and this is the key part: NIO makes a really high quality EV, is working on its European expansion plans, and has the home court advantage over TSLA in China. (TSLA is currently top dog but what I mean is that history has shown that the Chinese government is not shy or reticent about putting its regulatory thumb on the scales in favor of the home team.


I think this is a tougher match-up to figure out: You have MGNI in the sweet spot with massive sell-side advertising potential aligned with a powerful industry wide movement - as opposed to NIO with the right product at the right historical moment with a more powerful industry wide movement. But - NIO must fight off TSLA and a myriad mob of additional Chinese competitors.

I gamed this match-up 5 times and while it was close each time the odds seem to slightly favor NIO by a point or two. Still, with investor aversion and sensitivity to Chinese companies - along with images of TTD type performance ahead - I think MGNI wins this one and advances. We'll see.

All the Best,

All the Best
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No. of Recommendations: 3
This one is a no-brainer for me, mostly because of that aversion to Chinese companies thing.

I have nothing against Chinese folks generally, but I'm not a fan of the power wielded by the Chinese government. I had a few positions in China companies and sold out of all of them last year. I would have made money had I kept them, but I'm okay with my decision to sell. Even a successful company with a good-looking future can be sidelined if they get on the wrong side of the government. I realize that the same thing can be said about companies/industries in the U.S., maybe it's a home-field bias thing for me. I dunno.

I like Magnite's chances in the future. Their revenue and earnings have been a bit lumpy, but they have a good-looking balance sheet, and I believe they're in the right place at the right time for growth in CTV advertising.

Edge: MGNI

Best regards,
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No. of Recommendations: 2
This is an early round mismatch. Led by their dominant 7'2" center Dikembe Mutombo Mpolondo Mukamba Jean-Jacques "Kindig" Wamutombo and their dynamic variation of the CTV triangle offense, Magnite will make short work of the talented but young Nio upstarts. Many consider Nio lucky to be in the dance and they figure to wilt this year when facing off with a more physical opponent.

Magnite's bench warmers will get an opportunity for mop up duty before the first half comes to a close.

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Hi Cliff:

Have you contacted ESPN? I hear they are looking for talented announcers to do color commentary when the dance actually starts.

Well Done!

All the Best,
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I own both stocks but MGNI will win this hands down
Love the competition
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Hi Erik:

You were right on target.

All the Best,
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