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Elan: It's true that unemployment is not a classic definition of a recession. It's usually a lagging indicator.

Nevertheless using unemployment GTT by Philosophical Economics has seemed to work much better
than no timing at all. AllocateSmartly’s extended backtest to 1930 reduced the Max Drawdown by 40%
from -80% to -47% while increasing the long time CAGR by 1.3%. So even being a lagging indicator it was
better than no timing at all. The available data for backtesting all the way back to 1930 is an additional plus.

However, by my reckoning there are over 30 alternative timing systems on Allocate Smartly alone that
have higher Ulcer Performance Index’s than GTT. Of course, all of this is still hypothetical until the future
plays out and we find which if any actually have predictive power.

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