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Good to read all your excellent input on the subject.
Yes, I also concur with a 1-3 yr outlook for crude in the $11-15/bbl price range.
I simply base my opinion on 1 simple fundamental:
global supply is (and remains)higher than global demand.This surplus of crude is simply not going away because:
- all OPEC members cheat and want to produce full out;
- demand growth is slow, and with Asian crisis, Japan
now in recession, and potentially US economy slowing
down, the demand growth( barrels/day consumption )


The political and religious factors, true and real, are not substantially changing this supply/demand picture, UNLESS of course a M.East war brakes out or the Iran local situation gets out of hand and Persian Gulf tensions dictate the crude sentiments.
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