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How Inexpensive Must Energy Storage Be for Utilities to Switch to 100 Percent Renewables?
https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/what-...
“Low-cost storage is the key to enabling renewable electricity to compete with fossil fuel generated electricity on a cost basis,” says Yet-Ming Chiang, a materials science and engineering professor at MIT.

But exactly how low? Chiang, professor of energy studies Jessika Trancik, and others have determined that energy storage would have to cost roughly US $20 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for the grid to be 100% powered by a wind-solar mix. Their analysis is published in Joule.

That’s an intimidating stretch for lithium-ion batteries, which dipped to $175/kWh in 2018. But things look up if you loosen the constraints on renewable energy, the researchers say. Then, storage technologies that meet the cost target are within reach.

DB2
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Chiang, professor of energy studies Jessika Trancik, and others have determined that energy storage would have to cost roughly US $20 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for the grid to be 100% powered by a wind-solar mix. Their analysis is published in Joule.

That’s an intimidating stretch for lithium-ion batteries, which dipped to $175/kWh in 2018. But things look up if you loosen the constraints on renewable energy, the researchers say. Then, storage technologies that meet the cost target are within reach.

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If the USA does not reach $20/kWh, then the Chinese or Europeans will.
The race is on, and winner(s) get the big dollars, euros, etc.

jaagu
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If the USA does not reach $20/kWh, then the Chinese or Europeans will.
The race is on, and winner(s) get the big dollars, euros, etc.


Unless it's impossible.

Sometimes you can't ever get the price down as low as you want. Sometimes you can't make a laptop for $100 (One Laptop Per Child) or a car for one lakh rupees (Tata Nano).

We have no way of knowing what the eventual lower limit of $$ per kWh of energy storage will be....but there's no guarantee that it's as low as $20 simply because that's what we want or need it to be.
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"If the USA does not reach $20/kWh, then the Chinese or Europeans will.
The race is on, and winner(s) get the big dollars, euros, etc."


Despite a hundred million a year, the average cost of a car in the US is over $20,000 and goes UP each year despite massive demand.

The cost curve is coming down......but so far, there haven't been 'breakthrough' technologies despite 30 years of trying.

Lots of 'it works great in the lab' but not able to scale it up or reproduce it for mass production.

I've seen a dozen new super low cost EVs get announced and die on the vine before production.....

I've seen a dozen 'battery companies' go out of business.

Solar panels? Half a dozen companies had 'the ultimate' design for super low cost...that failed miserably.

Batteries have been around for 200 plus years...... long before cars.......

It's not Moore's Law.....it's an electrochemical reaction and 'energy density' , discharge/charge cycles, recharge time and a half dozen other factors complicating the mix.


Right now, batteries are made up of hundreds or thousands of individual little 'cells' connected in series/parallel.


t.
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We have no way of knowing what the eventual lower limit of $$ per kWh of energy storage will be....but there's no guarantee that it's as low as $20 simply because that's what we want or need it to be.

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Engineers make educated guesses all the time based on knowing all the factors. I look to these engineers and see what they are forecasting. for the last 10 years I have been forecasting on MF that natural gas and renwables will dominate new power generation through 2020 because I knew the factors. I also forecast that coal and nuclear power would suffer massive cancellations and shutdowns through 2020 because I knew the factors.

Now I look at what the energy experts are saying about energy storage. Here are 2 reports that forecast battery storage growth based on knowing the factors:

Battery storage costs have evolved rapidly over the past several years, necessitating an update to
storage cost projections used in long-term planning models and other activities. This work
documents the development of these projections, which are based on recent publications of
storage costs. The projections show a wide range of storage costs, both in terms of current costs
as well as future costs. Although the range in projections is considerable, all projections do show
a decline in capital costs, with cost reductions by 2025 of 10-52%.

The cost projections developed in this work utilize the normalized cost reductions across the
literature, and result in 21-67% capital cost reductions by 2030 and 31-80% cost reductions by
2050.

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73222.pdf

Battery storage in stationary applications looks set to grow from only 2 gigawatts (GW) worldwide in 2017 to around 175 GW, rivaling pumped-hydro storage, projected to reach 235 GW in 2030. In the meantime, lower installed costs, longer lifetimes, increased numbers of cycles and improved performance will further drive down the cost of stored electricity services.

https://www.irena.org/publications/2017/Oct/Electricity-stor...

https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication...

jaagu

P.S. - In my engineering judgement, energy storage will reach something close to $50/kWh in the next 10 years and will continue to go down through 2050.
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Batteries have been around for 200 plus years...... long before cars.......

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LOL! Your facts are always wrong.

Lithium-ion battery was developed in 1979. How far can you drive (bicycle) on a 1800 battery? How long does a 1800 battery last for lighting.

Wind energy foe windmills has been around for hundreds of years. Wind turbines for electricity have come a long way since the first small battery charging one in 1887.

You really need to get a grip on real facts - not your fantastical facts.

I have shown you to be wrong on car maintenance facts, power generation facts, and every other engineering fact.

jaagu
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jaagu:"How far can you drive (bicycle) on a 1800 battery? How long does a 1800 battery last for lighting."

The British made an EV that would go 100 miles on a charge back in the 1910s. That's about what a 2010 Nissan Leaf could do.

- - -

The first Hybrid was the Woods Electric in 1917 with both a gas engine and battery powered motor.

- ---

from Wiki

"In 1828, Ányos Jedlik invented an early type of electric motor, and created a small model car powered by his new motor. In 1834, Vermont blacksmith Thomas Davenport built a similar contraption which operated on a short, circular, electrified track.[5] In 1834, Professor Sibrandus Stratingh of Groningen, the Netherlands and his assistant Christopher Becker created a small-scale electric car, powered by non-rechargeable primary cells"

- - - ---

Between 1832 and 1839, Scottish inventor Robert Anderson also invented a crude electric carriage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicl...

The first electric car in Germany was built by the engineer Andreas Flocken in 1888

The first electric car in the United States was developed in 1890-91 by William Morrison of Des Moines, Iowa;


- ----

So jaagu, why don't you at least PRETEND to do a search before you blast tele ? And learn the facts yourself?



t.
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jaagu:"t claimed that over 200 years ago batteries could transport people. "

No, t said batteries are 200 year old.....actually, remains of batteries several thousand years old have been found. Probably used for electroplating.

t said nothing about 200 year old EV transport......

- - - ---

But in 1910s there was a car for sale in Britain that could go 100 miles on a charge. The same as a first generation Nissan Leaf!


t.
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But in 1910s there was a car for sale in Britain that could go 100 miles on a charge. The same as a first generation Nissan Leaf!

You are comparing apples to oranges. A tiny "car" (nothing we would recognize as a car today) that could in ideal circumstances go 100 miles while traveling at ~10 miles per hour is not really comparable to the first generation Leaf.
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BenS: A tiny "car" (nothing we would recognize as a car today) that could in ideal circumstances go 100 miles while traveling at ~10 miles per hour is not really comparable to the first generation Leaf.




"It was not until 1895 that Americans began to devote attention to electric vehicles after an electric tricycle was built by A. L. Ryker and William Morrison built a six-passenger wagon, both in 1891. In fact, William Morrison's design, which had room for passengers, is often considered the first real and practical EV.

In 1897, the first commercial EV application was established: a fleet of New York City taxis built by the Electric Carriage and Wagon Company of Philadelphia.

While basic electric cars cost under $1,000, most early electric vehicles were ornate, massive carriages designed for the upper class. They had fancy interiors made with expensive materials and averaged $3,000 by 1910.

- - - ---

Since the speed limits in town were low, and there were no decent roads connecting towns together, these vehicles were 'state of the art'.

One British EV could go 100 miles at 25 mph - 'fast' for the times. Not even 'paved' roads back then - other than cobblestone.....

The Nissan Leaf with 100 years more of engineering 'excellence' could barely match the range of 100 year old designs.



https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-electric-vehicles-19916...

t
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In 1897, the first commercial EV application was established: a fleet of New York City taxis built by the Electric Carriage and Wagon Company of Philadelphia.

When I was a kid, during WW-II and for some time after (and probably before) our local dairy made home deliveries of milk either every day, or every-other day. Their trucks were battery powered (probably lead-acid batteries). Great at the time because gasoline was rationed and delivery trucks had great difficulty getting gasoline. The bakery also made home deliveries. During the war, they used horse-drawn vehicles.
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Now I look at what the energy experts are saying about energy storage. Here are 2 reports that forecast battery storage growth based on knowing the factors:

And the most optimistic estimate of those reports shows batteries in 2050 still costing about double that $20 price you cited above.

Again, I don't doubt that battery prices will continue to fall. But there's no guarantee that they'll fall enough to make them cheap enough to hit the $20 level identified as the level for a 100% wind-solar grid.

Albaby
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As I said you are comparing apples to oranges.

The 100 mile 'car' of the early 1900s: https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2010/05/the-status-quo-of-el...

It's nothing we would call a car today.

Plus that was advertised range. What was its real range under normal use? Who knows? How long did the batteries last before replacement? Not long, I assure you.
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And the most optimistic estimate of those reports shows batteries in 2050 still costing about double that $20 price you cited above.

Again, I don't doubt that battery prices will continue to fall. But there's no guarantee that they'll fall enough to make them cheap enough to hit the $20 level identified as the level for a 100% wind-solar grid.

Albaby


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You are stuck on $20/kWh. That is a number some one calculated for 100% wind-solar. We do not need 100% wind-solar. We have lots of other renewables like hydro, geothermal, biomass, and nuclear which reduces the need to reach $20.

In my engineering judgement, energy storage will reach something close to $50/kWh in the next 10 years and will continue to go down through 2050.

jaagu
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You are stuck on $20/kWh.

I'm not stuck on it - you're the one that mentioned it as something we needed to race to, else our competitors would get there first.
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You are stuck on $20/kWh.

I'm not stuck on it - you're the one that mentioned it as something we needed to race to, else our competitors would get there first.

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LOL! Yes the world is racing toward cheaper batteries as I showed. The $20/kWh is someone's calculation for an unreal world. You keep trying to prove it is impossible to get cheap batteries.

jaagu
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The $20/kWh is someone's calculation for an unreal world. You keep trying to prove it is impossible to get cheap batteries.

Again, it's the number you cited. I didn't bring it up. I'm not saying anything about whether it's impossible to get cheaper batteries. You're the one who said $20/kWh, not me.

Albaby
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The $20/kWh is someone's calculation for an unreal world. You keep trying to prove it is impossible to get cheap batteries.

Again, it's the number you cited. I didn't bring it up. I'm not saying anything about whether it's impossible to get cheaper batteries. You're the one who said $20/kWh, not me.

Albaby

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I cited DB2's post about $20/kWh and said it was a goal for the world to try and achieve. I never said it was achievable. I said that by 2050 costs would be less than $50/kWh. I also said that $20/kWh would not be necessary for batteries for 100% clean energy generation.

I do not know why you are hung up on $20/kWh.

jaagu
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???


jaagu:

If the USA does not reach $20/kWh, then the Chinese or Europeans will.

jaagu:

I cited DB2's post about $20/kWh and said it was a goal for the world to try and achieve. I never said it was achievable.


You must have a different definition of "will."
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I cited DB2's post about $20/kWh and said it was a goal for the world to try and achieve. I never said it was achievable.


You must have a different definition of "will."

===========================================================

Leaving out all my discussions makes your conclusion stupid.

jaagu
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t claimed that over 200 years ago batteries could transport people. Now he can not find any such thing over 200 years ago.

The best he can do is 130 years ago and claims it to be equivalent to a Li-ion battery vehicle like a Tesla.

More fantasy facts by t.

jaagu
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BenS:"It's nothing we would call a car today."

"The Nissan Leaf and the Mitsubishi i-MiEV, two electric cars to be introduced on the market in 2010, have exactly the same range as the 1908 Fritchle Model A Victoria: 100 miles (160 kilometres) on a single charge. The "100-mile Fritchle" was a progressive engineering feat for its time, but it was not the only early electric that boasted a 100 mile range. I have only chosen it because its specifications are most complete, and because its range was certified."

</l>

There was also nothing would we could a road back then, either. You had cobblestone 'downtown' and dirt roads everywhere else. Rutted horrible dirt roads. It was the fantastic ride of the era. A lot better than riding a bicycle or walking or riding a horse or a horse drawn carriage!

You do realize that back then 25% of all US agriculture land was devoted to growing 'fuel' for the horses and farm animals? NY city had 1,000 'sanitation workers' cleaning horse poop off the NYC streets every single night. There were 100,000+ horses working in NYC - bringing food into the city, distributing the food, hauling goods around, hauling tradesmen and services around......the subways didn't arrive until the turn of the century. Before that they were coal powered elevated steam trains! Disease was rampant and spread by horse poop, the flies that fed on the horse poop, and everything else. The garbage was picked up by horse drawn carts......if it wasn't thrown in back yards to rot away and attract rats.....

The gas powered car won out simply because Henry Ford decided to mass produce that car with the Model T. Back in the 1900s, only half of houses in the USA had electricity...probably a lot less actually. Half the homes didn't have electricity in the 1920s when broadcast radio started. Only city folks had electricity.

t.
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I cited DB2's post about $20/kWh and said it was a goal for the world to try and achieve. I never said it was achievable.

I didn't realize that it was his number, not yours. But you did say that other nations would achieve it if we didn't, so I inferred that you believed it was achievable.

Albaby
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I didn't realize that it was his number, not yours. But you did say that other nations would achieve it if we didn't, so I inferred that you believed it was achievable.

Albaby

========================================================

You can not see the forest for the trees. I said it was a goal. Nations are racing for cheap batteries. It really is simple, not complicated.

jaagu
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The gas powered car won out simply because Henry Ford decided to mass produce that car with the Model T

The gas powered car won because the lead acid batteries available at the time were short-lived and in adequate for inter-city travel.

It wasn't until Tesla came out with the Model S and the nationwide Supercharger network this decade that electric cars achieved passable inter-city functionality.
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"The gas powered car won because the lead acid batteries available at the time were short-lived and in adequate for inter-city travel."

No, the gas powered car won out because in 1910s, only 25% or so of all houses in America had AC power. It was hard to recharge your EV when you had no home AC.

Most farm houses did not have electricity. Most rural houses had no a/c. Most small towns had no a/c. There wasn't a screaming need for it. Kerosene worked fine for lanterns, and most farm families got up with the sun and went to bed when it set. A wood stove worked well for cooking and hot water. Maybe a fireplace for some evening heat and light.

Broadcast radio didn't start till the 1920s, and when it started less than half the homes in the US had a/c. Most of the radios build ran on batteries up till the late 1920s. If you had A/C, you could buy 'battery eliminators'. The first real a/c powered radios showed up in 1926.

Gas stations sprung up - most of them manually operated (ie, you pumped a handle to get fuel up into a bowl to measure it, then it dropped down through a hose into your tank. What we call 'visible fuel pumps' today. Before that, gas was delivered in five gallon gas tanks.

The gas car won out because you could make it for HALF the price of an EV. No one tried to mass produce an EV after Henry Ford.....till five decades later.....

t.
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in 1910s, only 25% or so of all houses in America had AC power. It was hard to recharge your EV when you had no home AC.
...
Gas stations sprung up
...
The gas car won out because you could make it for HALF the price of an EV.


There were a lot of reasons the gas engine won back in the day. Cost and lack of charging infrastructure were certainly big on that list, though at the time the contest was emerging, gasoline refueling infrastructure was also non-existent. Gasoline's energy density, portability and storability all made it possible for gas stations to spring up around the country and those attributes also made it feasible for someone to simply pack along some extra gas cans loaded with gas if they were making a journey across a span where gas might not be available.

Inadequacy of the lead-acid battery technology of the time was also a key factor: the lack of energy density, longevity, and charge retention were are big problems, and I'm sure they contributed to the cost problem that you note above, as they do to this day.
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