Is this what it was like in 1999?There’s about a dozen of our IT teammembers trading options on Robinhood* all day long. With this and Bitcoin starting another big run it just seems like we’re in for some good times. Didn’t someone on here have a portapotty index that marked the real estate bubble? What do we look for this time?*it’s a well designed app actually
I'm not real familiar with Robinhood but I am quite familiar with 1999 and the Internet stocks. We had some guys that bought something called CMGI. It was a company that financed (seeded?) other prospective Internet companies and was constantly going up and splitting. One guy in particular would buy more every time it went down and, for a while, it always recovered. Until it didn't and he kept buying on the way down. I'm not sure if he ended up with any profit at all.Another guy wrote a day trading book that was sold on Amazon. It didn't have any real strategies and would only work if the market kept going up.So yeah, things got crazy. I think the housing market is also going crazy again.I lived in Scottsdale from 2003-2011 where I saw my house going from $300K to over $600K and back to $300K (or less). At least 25% of the people I met were in real estate. Then post 2008 I'd drive down some streets in south Scottsdale and, I'm not kidding, 7 of 10 homes had foreclosure signs on them. Fortunately it didn't hurt me.Now things are being built everywhere again. My house here is worth more than the one I have in MD. And just down the road from me they are building Ritz Carlton residences (min of $1M) and supposedly sold 100 of them the first week.I just don't see a real economy here that can support the craziness. Lower paying jobs and once again, speculators from CA bidding things up.MD is also getting crazy with homes. If there is green space, it seems to end up with homes. Although I think it is too much, at least back there with all of the government jobs, contracting jobs, some technology, etc. there is a much larger base of 6 figure paying jobs unlike AZ.Maybe it time to start popping the popcorn, kick back and watch the inevitable collapse. Rich
ah, CMGI. They even had a stadium named after them and their CEO David Weatherall (?) was hailed as a visionary while Warren Buffett was a washed-up has-been. Why wasn't Warren cheerleading his stock when it was going down? Why wasn't he taking a page from the CMGI playbook?I remember the "discussions" well. I even bought $2500 of CMGI, watched it double twice and took my $7500 profit and let an additional $500 ride. It nearly doubled again before it began falling...and falling...and falling. I considered that $500 a play money lottery ticket. I'd taken my stupid, lucky profits and didn't much care. But it went to zero. I knew the entire time I was gambling. I would've grabbed back my original $2500 investment much quicker but it double-doubled so quickly I didn't have the chance. Lucky for me. I hope others from that crazy, irrational time took their profits and didn't lose their shirts. But surely some did.SD
I'm sure there are pockets of resi RE that are heating up, some perhaps dramatically, but there is nothing remotely to suggest we are anywhere near a bubble stage looking at the data.You say MD is 'getting crazy with homes' but then immediately point out it's backed by 6-figure jobs in multiple industry.That sounds like simple Supply/Demand Econ 101 to me.CNBC had a segment yesterday on the high-end in NYC is falling hard. Quite the reverse of the bubble era. At the peak we were doing over 7m existing home sales a year now that number is 5.3m with a larger population. New home sales were 1.4m back then now 626k. Hardly a bubble.Which is not to say with sub-2% rates another one may not be brewing, but it's gonna take a few years.
Maybe it time to start popping the popcorn, kick back and watch the inevitable collapse.RichNot I. I'm trading the SPYS daily, short/long with puts/calls.Also, I do the same with the volatile stocks of which SaaS Euphorians squawk "It's different this time" on a certain MF board I shan't name here.It's like the folks who continue supporting Tesla because they have a steep learning curve, when the company has now been around for 16 years, none of them profitable.This next wipeout is going to be the Millennials' hard knock lessons for learning how to use time-tested methods of valuation in the future.By the way, on $TSLAQ Twitter we have one indicator we call the RobinHODLers index which shows us daily how many Robin Hood users hold shares of Tesla. You can find this information for all stocks. If one of your stocks is in the Top 20 of RobinHODLer holdings, you know you are holding one of those "It's different this time" stocks being hawked all over Fool these days.Speaking of which, have you received the latest MF pitch to buy a certain, pricy newsletter of theirs called (and I'm not making this up) "IPO Trailblazers"?Many of the stocks touted in the email ad (I wish I had not trashcanned the pitch from my email so I could pass it on here) are some of which are pumped daily by dozens of Fools hot on the scent of high gross margins and 50+% revenue growers, screw the costs, go for the biggest slice of TAM you can get, and we can worry about profits a decade or so from now . . . shades of dotcom bubble and housing bubble and fracking miracle bubble etc.Check out the price of this newsletter: https://www.fool.com/order/7512ea58-2c8b-46af-8aee-f807d2c79...It's definitely getting frothy out there, so be careful.p.s. This is how I find highly volatile and high-volume IPOs to chart and await the end of lockups and the arrival of puts/calls options.https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/activity.aspx?tab=upcomi...I chart 'em, I play 'em, I move on after the hit n run.
I don’t know if there’s enough debt out there for any sort of collapse. Definitely not in real estate. But the options trading in Robinhood tho. They really do make it incredibly easy to gamble. (Perhaps too easy?)You should all throw fifty bucks on there just to go through the onboarding process. Again, I can’t imagine there’s debt at risk, just rent money. Maybe everyone’s got extra spending cash these days. ..
I do find RHood's marketing of options to suckers...I mean retail to be morally repugnant.You have better odds of long-term success with scratch-offs.
Best Of |
Favorites & Replies |
Start a New Board |
My Fool |