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No. of Recommendations: 2
ET, great post as always.

Excellent note on the Jones Act, a fact I neglected to mention.

I too had kind of off and on followed CNRD for a while. As noted, I'm not super pumped about it, but I kind of peg it as a 10-12%+ ROE (not 15% probably) business with solid management at a discount to hard assets (my bias / filter) so I like it. I'd probably be a seller in low/mid $30's.

This comment:
"3) I can't answer these questions: why has the vessel construction cycle been bad for a few years and why will it get better? Maybe the economics or the business has fundamentally changed. What is the alternative to barges and has the competitive situation changed?"

Yeah, this is the hard part for me. I'm not so sure I see the dynamics as changing. I'm actually somewhat bullish on the part of O&G market they cater to, and O&G (pricing only) in general, so also kind of back into that view via CNRD... but it's not a big position for that reason of both uncertainty, as well as just not being a great business.

I watch their comp for reads on the market turning, and so far not too many green shoots.

Separately, I think there is also upside here in M&A (buying maybe, but more likely selling).

Thanks again,
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