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Germany’s Volkswagen could have see its European market share accelerate to about one third by 2020 if present trends continue, while GM’s Opel-Vauxhall and France’s Peugeot-Citroen will be in mortal danger, according to Bernstein Research analyst Max Warburton.

Government’s may have to step in to save the weakest, he said.

VW’s Western Europe market share in 2012 will be close to 24 per cent.

Warburton, in a report, reckoned VW will make what he called a “mild” profit in 2012, while the remaining mass car manufacturers – France’s Renault and Peugeot-Citroen, Italy’s Fiat, U.S. owned GM Europe’s Opel and Vauxhall subsidiaries, and Ford Europe will share in losses of close to $8 billion.

Peugeot-Citroen, in which GM has a seven per cent stake, will account for about $2 billion of that.

LMC Automotive expects Western Europe’s car sales to fall eight per cent for the whole year. Analysts expect another decline next year of about four per cent. A rally in sales to pre-2008 recession levels seems unlikely soon.

“If current trends continue, some will be forced to retrench. Recapitalisations, state involvement and even nationalization may prolong the process,” Warburton said.

There's quite a bit more at the link.

For GM, they're forecasting that they may be reduced to importing Korean made Chevies.

For Ford, the forecast is that Ford may have to scale back it's plans for the Mondeo. Given the global footprint of Mondeo and other products based on the CD platform, I think the results are likely to be driven by market demand, not production capabilities.

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