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Even when recessions follow a yield curve inversion it usually takes months to bite.

Or years. We had a full inversion of the curve in 2005 and that lasted all the way until mid-2007. The recession did not hit until the end of that year.

We could be seeing a canary in the coal mine right now but it's still pretty early to say one way or the other. The inversion we have is only a few basis points and not the traditional 2yr-10yr inversion that is the strong indicator.
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