No. of Recommendations: 4
every time, the PMI has gone below 47, there was a recession, and the average recession caused stock prices to decrease by 47%.

Sounds like a bit of numerology, what with the repeating of the number "47".


He looks at 3 indicators. Valuation. The PMI, (The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing.), and sentiment indicators.

There are lots of indicators available for people to look at. Plenty of room to make selection bias errors. Plenty of room to make confirmation bias errors. There's a reason that it is a semi-joke statement about "calling 9 of the last 2 recessions."

The question I'd want to know is, how do his favorite indicators jive with the recession indicators that are mentioned in the GTT paper, Industrial Product Growth and Retail Sales Growth, that come from the FRED.


Based on these 3 things, he will adjust his stock bond ratio.

So he doesn't have a rigorous, mechanical system, he just goes by gut feeling after taking a look at these 3 things?

Back in the day, I used to listen to Bob Brinker's radio show religiously every weekend. After a while I realized that his calls for "gift horse buying opportunity" were just so much bunk.
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