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Everybody thinks they are a genius when the market is going up. You are right that there have been an incredible amount of posts on the board from people who "knew" this was going to happen. I've been reading The Economist for the past three years where they were saying how there is a lot of systematic risk about 2 years ago. Almost every issue would mention the possibility. But it was still only a possibility and far from certain.

I'd say the markets are about 80% and 20% skill. Even if you picked the right stocks this year there is no way you are up. It's very difficult to be up when the market is down and visa versa.
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