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Exactly. That's correct. And I agree...with conditions. You're appealing to the efficiency of a large market. When it's efficient, with plenty of participants, yes, the price of the share (odds that Obama/Romney is elected) should accurately reflect all known information. But Warrl's solid, but arguable point is that it's too small - therefore not efficient.

Not exactly.

My point is that, relative to the size of the entities with incentive to manipulate it, it's too small - therefore *cannot be trusted* to be efficient.
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