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Hi all, have not been around, been busy!

So it seems to be time to consider refinancing. I have a 2.65% 1 year Arm tied to the constant maturity treasury. I have had this for about 10 years. Has worked out really well. This is with Capital One 360, so I can refi into a new 5 year Arm at a cost of one payment, but the rate is 3.6%.

I have a 5 year time horizon in this home, for planning purposes. My loan is a low % of home value, perhaps 25%.

I can afford to pay it off but with rates so low my sense is either to stay the course or perhaps refi and increase the loan amount.

My expectation is ST rates will begin to rise in mid-2015. No way to know how much or how high of course. So this would kind of be an insurance policy against a steady or rapid rise in rates. Of course, that looks unlikely at the moment, but such is the nature of insurance.

Any thoughts on where I may find the cheapest money right now?

VQ
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I have a 2.65% 1 year Arm tied to the constant maturity treasury. I have had this for about 10 years. Has worked out really well.

Wha…?! You mean the exact strategy I espoused on this very board--"borrow short/pay long"--worked well for you? Stop the presses and tell Rayvt who got his kicks from raking me over the coals for advising the strategy that has worked well for you.

Check here for cheap money. => https://www.provident.com
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Wha…?! You mean the exact strategy I espoused on this very board--"borrow short/pay long"--worked well for you? Stop the presses and tell Rayvt who got his kicks from raking me over the coals for advising the strategy that has worked well for you.

Uh, no. It was a 5 year ARM. I got it because I had a 5 year horizon at that time. I think the prevailing logic here sometime after that was to get an ARM because a very small percentage of mortgages remain in place more than 7-8 years. I do not see that statistic as very useful, since it is so interest-rate dependent, as we have seen.

Course a lot of people that followed that logic and got more exotic ARMS also did not keep them in place-they were foreclosed on.

But I do thank you for that insight.

VQ
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Uh, no. It was a 5 year ARM.

Exactly. Short term. Can't admit I was right, can ya?
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Exactly. Short term. Can't admit I was right, can ya?

I admit I did not follow your strategy. I also admit that many people who lost their homes followed strategies similar to what you espouse. I take not joy in pointing that out.

And I can see your charm offensive has not waned.
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Check here for cheap money. => https://www.provident.com

I checked. Pretty good. Same rates as Amerisave, though. Alas, not any better than my current rate.



I have a 2.65% 1 year Arm tied to the constant maturity treasury. I have had this for about 10 years. Has worked out really well.

Wha…?! You mean the exact strategy I espoused on this very board--"borrow short/pay long"--worked well for you?


CC, please. Really?

Borrow short/pay long is more risky than borrow long/pay long. Nothing wrong with taking an informed risk, but not getting hit is not the same thing as not taking the risk.

You don't, of course, have to take my word on it. I have a quote on point.

"You can’t judge the correctness of a decision from the outcome. This is a concept that many people find nonsensical. But good decisions fail to work all the time – just as bad ones lead to success – simply because it’s so hard to predict which alternate history will materialize.

"The correctness of a decision can't be judged from the outcome. Nevertheless, that's how people assess them. A good decision is one that's optimal at the time it's made, when the future is by definition unknown. Thus correct decisions are often unsuccessful, and vice versa." -- Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital http://www.oaktreecapital.com/memo.aspx

Another one, written from the viewpoint of investing rather than borrowing:
"Investors may consciously or unconsciously pursue strategies which take on the risk of low-frequency, high-severity outcomes. Strategies which can only be torpedoed by low-frequency events will mostly produce favorable outcomes; identifying the tail risk implicit in such strategies is an extraordinary challenge. The absence of the severe negative outcome is not, regrettably, proof that it cannot occur."


There are plenty of ways to balance risks vs. rewards in your financial life, and people individually chose different areas to take these risk/rewards in.

Personally, I prefer to take my risks in areas that don't involve a sherriff moving my furniture out to the sidewalk. Others choose differently. To me, the benefits of potentially saving ~1% on a 1-year ARM far outweigh the risks -- I know to the penny my mortgage payment for the next 28 years, and know that all but the last one will be the exact same amount.
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JAFO?? Who the heck cares about what licenses JAFO has?

Does it matter if he looks like this: http://www.dogbreedinfo.com/images26/PomeranianPurebredDogAl... rather than this? http://www.dogbreedinfo.com/images24/AmbullneoMastiffAnastas...


And really? Ever googled JAFO? I'm embarassed to realise that I had never considered his name, until just now when trying to acertain his (her?) breed.
Spit coffee all over my keyboard.
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Borrow short/pay long is more risky than borrow long/pay long. Nothing wrong with taking an informed risk, but not getting hit is not the same thing as not taking the risk.

How come it is the same person pushing short term loans that is also pushing super safe IULs and investing in real estate. It seems risk is all over the map.

PSU
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You got a 5-year ARM, but stayed in it for ten years. Now you're looking for another 5-year ARM on the same property. You followed my strategy--whether you want to admit it or not.
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I checked. Pretty good. Same rates as Amerisave, though. Alas, not any better than my current rate.

So?
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JAFO?? Who the heck cares about what licenses JAFO has?

Exactly. So why the phony anonymous disclaimer? It's silly…always has been.
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How come it is the same person pushing short term loans that is also pushing super safe IULs and investing in real estate.

I'm not "pushing" anything. I only originate loans and, for me, IULs seem like a safe bet--as does borrowing short and paying long.
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So why the phony anonymous disclaimer? It's silly…always has been.
Well, it's not anonymous.
Anyone who wants to file a suit could subpoena TMF to find out the email address behind a given account. And from there they can find out the real information for a person.

Since we're not really anonymous, I don't think it's silly to have a disclaimer for a lawyer. I think most lawyers that post on a message board with anything close to resembling advice will do something similar. I've seen similar statements in things lawyers have written for newspaper columns.

As for why - we live in a litigious society. Better to make it obvious that a lawsuit against a poster would be pointless... That way you're less likely to get sued.
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I think most lawyers that post on a message board with anything close to resembling advice will do something similar. I've seen similar statements in things lawyers have written for newspaper columns.

Yes, those lawyers are willing to disclose their real names--which is why they include a disclaimer. An anonymous poster claiming to be a lawyer? I doubt anyone would give their opinion the time of day, anyway.
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An anonymous poster claiming to be a lawyer?
You just don't seem to get it.
Let me be very clear:
No posts on TMF are anonymous.

You may not know my real name or JAFO's, but that just means you haven't tried very hard.
With $2000 and a month or two, you could come up with the real name of any poster who has posted >10 times on this board in the past 3 months.

I doubt anyone would give their opinion the time of day, anyway.
You may doubt it - but that doesn't mean people don't seriously consider it. I could doubt that anyone would read a newspaper column and consider that to actually be legal advice. But that doesn't mean that there aren't people stupid enough to do so and then try to sue the author.

If your complaint is that people think JAFO is right and you're wrong because of his disclaimer, you'd be wrong. I ignore his disclaimer. But I do find his understanding of the law to match mine - and when it hasn't he's provided documentation that has changed my understanding (or I've found I was wrong via a google search)
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With $2000 and a month or two, you could come up with the real name of any poster who has posted >10 times on this board in the past 3 months.

It's worse (easier) than that.

With the ability to use google and a few hours or perhaps days of effort, you can track down the name of just about anybody who has posted more than a few times on forums anywhere on the internet.

All you need to do is start doing google searches on phrases that they've used. Keep trying different phrases. Eventually you'll start getting hits that are clearly for that person, so you just keep digging and narrowing in.

Heck, I've discovered people who post here on TMF with one screen-name and post on SeekingAlpha with a different screen-name and post on Early-retirement-forum with a third screen-name. Occasionally, I've discovered their real name by more follow-ups -- not because I was trying to find their real name, but because I just happened to run across it in my googling.


This is basically the technique that is used to find plagiarism and to identify actual authors of various historical writings. Word usage and frequency, phraseology, etc.

It's amazing how much personal information people leak into the internet -- especially people who post on Facebook, etc.

Anyway.....what does it matter? Cogent and correct reasoning has value no matter who says it. Incorrect and illogical statements are wrong no matter who says it.

CC, you are a puzzle of contradictions. You hate liberals with a passion, yet here you are doing one of the single-most illogical things liberals do --- argue not against what somebody says, but dismiss it based on who says it and their (purported) motives.
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argue not against what somebody says, but dismiss it based on who says it and their (purported) motives.

Not really. I just don't like you.
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