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At some point this will have an effect on investing since countries with shrinking populations and debt are likely to have problems. The pyramid like scheme of financing pensions and the like will have less people paying in while the population collecting the money is living longer.

This won't be popular but 20 yr retirements for the military, police, etc. really need to start moving to 25 or 30 years and the older folks who may not be able to serve on the front line rotated to support roles (which there are plenty of in the military).

Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century.

Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe.

They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve.

"That is jaw-dropping," Prof Christopher Murray told me.

China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100.


Prof Ibrahim Abubakar, University College London (UCL), said: "If these predictions are even half accurate, migration will become a necessity for all nations and not an option.

"To be successful we need a fundamental rethink of global politics.

"The distribution of working-age populations will be crucial to whether humanity prospers or withers."

Some serious down sizes if they are remotely accurate and certainly something that will affect countries and companies.
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In the US it seems likely we will replace the missing babies with immigrants. As long as immigrants want to come here we should be ok. Of course white immigrants are not so easy to attract. Society is likely to become much more diverse.

Japan has a much more difficult problem in that they do not welcome immigrants. That is why they are likely to be leaders in development of robotics and AI.

Fertility is certainly a driver of change in the Western world. But the effect is slower and more subtle than technology changes such as those from transportation, communications, electronics, and the digital revolution.
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