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No. of Recommendations: 7
I took the Fidelity Select Sector funds that
had data available all the way back to the mid- 1980's

Staples	FDFAX
Energy	FSENX
Finance	FIDSX
Health	FSPHX
Info.	FSPTX
Telcom	FSTCX
Util.	FSUTX

(now there are 41 Fidelity sector/industry funds, but with much
shorter history)

http://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/category-perfo...

www.fidelity.com/sector-investing/health-care/overview

It turns out that a good method is to buy
the one that did the best over the past 10 
months only if the S&P500 has not
fallen more than 5% below its 
9 month moving average.
Else go to T-Bills or cash.

You would only trade at the end of the month.

For 2014, this would have had you mostly in the healthcare
sector.

I could post, if there is interest, the actual results,
including adding more than one sector pick.


Some reference material-

https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/quarterl......    (go to page 2)

https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/markets_sectors/sec......

http://www.etf.com/sections/etf-strategist-corner/us-sector-......
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jamesmw-

ok, yes, I like that site, but not sure what
that link has anything to do with what I posted-
you have differing timeframes, differing stocks,
(an unmanaged ETF index vs. a managed sector fund)
and differing selection criteria.

Is the weighting scheme in your screen something you wanted
me to try with the Fidelity funds???
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I could post, if there is interest, the actual results,
including adding more than one sector pick.


I would be very interested in the actual results. Please post.
My spreadsheet shows advantage in investing in 3-5 Fidelity funds at a time, but I use a different timing. And after all would you actually invest 100% in one fund?
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bioflight-
Just want to be sure of your question/statement-

When you say you are using 3-5 Fidelity funds, what is the total number
you are selecting from - the current 41 select funds that Fidelity has 
or the 7 that I used that go back to the mid-1980s.

Also, what criteria are you using to exit the market of your 3-5 funds?

Just want to make sure we are comparing the same things….
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tpoto,
I use the full set of 41 select funds.
I have tried different simple timing. In the last test I just added TLT to the set and switched to it if a fund underperform TLT (over 10 month lookback period). It seems your 5%-SMA SPY rule worked better.
My test is limited to only last 15 years.
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