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Finally, utilities increase prices at healthy rates. That alone pushes utility electricity to become more expensive than solar electricity systems installed today in just a few years , even accounting for declines in panel efficiency.

Good Morning, Jim:
While your article makes some sense of a torturous tangle of possibles and unknowables, buried in your analysis is the above nugget. It deserves at least a bit of amplification.

As alternative energy continues to grow outside of established utilities (mostly solar since that is the easiest for the average Joe to instigate), the utilities will sell less of their own generated capacity. At a certain point, that will become a de facto "bad thing" for utilities. They will be required to buy what comes off my rooftop, while they have capital invested in their own generation which demands a return on that invested capital. How will they manage that? They'll most likely have to raise rates on what they generate. Imagine the ensuing dynamic. This will be a true tipping point. I don't know when, but it may come sooner than later, at least in some markets (California and Massachusetts).

Will it happen before 2017? Will something else change or catalyze the dynamic? My Magic 8 Ball says "chances are good."

That said, FSLR as a value stock is likely to benefit just as much. Every book by every wise old geezer will tell you so.

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