Saw this article which is generally about assessing the financial health of companies.. (M.D. of Stockdoctor made some interesting comments..) He thinks that the financial health of the markets has deteriorated over the last 3 yrs. Based on the 2000-01 reporting period, more than 50% of the market was showing signs of distress, according to him--- anyhow see what you think. http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,3796063%255E561,00.html Best.FC,
Thanks FC,One observation from my own experience,I've found all the companies that I deal with have been doing this for the last year.This month not one cheque cause it's the end of quarter, they aint paying any creditors this month.So I think it is very relevent, many are doing it & of cause it makes the quarters reporting look better. It's something to be aware & consider of IMO.Credit squeeze, where bills previously paid in 30-45 days are not paid for 90 days. When accountants won't take calls. This suggests there are a lot of people calling to be paid. When a company is consistently floating cheques above the overdraft. Unissued cheques sitting in a drawer, where he who roars the loudest gets paid. Negative shareholder funds.JR Suffering From The Low Cashflow Blues
'I've found all the companies that I deal with have been doing this for the last year.This month not one cheque cause it's the end of quarter " Jono,that's not good--- actually, its terrible! I'm inclined to think that that guy is not exaggerating about the general state of things. First thing I have been checking for this year on anything I have been interested in buying has been steady rising profits over the last 3 years, and to tell the truth I have been a bit shocked. JR Suffering From The Low Cashflow Blues Jono,visit the Casino--- hit the tables!! Have a good Easter. FC.
Saw this article which is generally about assessing the financial health of companies.. (M.D. of Stockdoctormade some interesting comments..)CassIf you remember I posted here some time ago about Stockdoctor. This is the first time I've seen anything which supports their work in company analysis. When I arrive in Brisbane and get set up one of the first things I intend doing is to subscribe to Stockdoctor. The set-up costs are $1400 for the first year then $1000 for subsequent years.I believe this is money well spent.I commented on O'Neill and CANSLIM and made the observation that there was nothing like IBD in the Oz market. However, having given some thought to it I believe that Stockdoctor acts very much like IBD in many respects, in that, it acts as a filter and throws up companies soundly based that you can select from.RegardsHarmy
Harmy. as luck would have it I was reading another board last night and there was a thread about Stockdoctor.. A few people finding that they are very slow to update and answer emails ect. I havn't used the service myself so I cannot speak from personal experience, anyhow another poster kindly supplied a link to another service which someone said worked better (but did not elaborate how..) see what you think .. http://www.conscious-investor.com/ I think the cost is around the same but slightly cheaper. (This site might appeal to Barcoo as well) If I can find out any more opinions about it I will let you know. Cheers. FC
(This site might appeal to Barcoo as well)Possibly would but I'm not forking out that kind of money for a service that I don't necessarily need.I can do all the searches I need to do at e*trade.$1400- That's more than my work car cost me.
Jono,that's not good--- actually, its terrible!The other thing IMO to watch is inventory.When a company has inventory it sits on the asset side of the ledger, a non-performer. The accounts dept start pushing the sales dept to move inventory, sometimes at below replacement cost. High income in sales & low inventory combined with pushing out creditors to 60 & now more more 90 days gives flexability to massage the figures, thus making them look better than they are.It's happening all over the place.So I think that you gotta look at the profit margin , if you got a holding in a company that(esp over the last year) declares high sales , low inventory & an increasing creditor debt.All the above IMO combine to show a total picture of a company in abstract form not the real picture at all.This IMO is one of the major reasons insider selling is at multi year highs........They know already.......rats from a sinking ship.JR
CassThanks for the link - will investigate itRegardsHarmy
This from a Buffett letter,We find it meaningful when an owner cares about whom he sells to. We like to do business with someone who loves his company, not just the money that a sale will bring him (though we certainly understand why he likes that as well). When this emotional attachment exists, it signals that important qualities will likely be found within the business: honest accounting, pride of product, respect for customers, and a loyal group of associates having a strong sense of direction.The reverse is apt to be true, also. When an owner auctions off his business, exhibiting a total lack of interest in what follows, you will frequently find that it has been dressed up for sale, particularly when the seller is a "financial owner." And if owners behave with little regard for their business and its people, their conduct will often contaminate attitudes and practices throughout the companyhttp://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2000ar/2000letter.htmlThe insider selling that has been going on can be looked at in a similar way to the above IMO.Why if the company is going to be alright going forward are so many insiders selling?. Is not their selling a reflection of what they know now & can reasonably anticipate going forwad about the likley performance of their companys?JR
Is not their selling a reflection of what they know now & can reasonably anticipate going forwad about the likley performance of their companys?Maybe.......That is why I posted the link.But I'll repeat something I have said before - There is only one reason for buying, but a million for selling, many of them with absolutely no reflection on the company in any way shape or form whatsoever.But........Mass insider selling could be another matter. Could be a reflection on the companies. Maybe it's a reflection on their thoughts about the economy not the companies. Personally I'm looking forward to it. Bargains galore hopefully because we all know that the pendulum usually swings too far before it comes back.
Maybe.......That is why I posted the linkPost 3828 - 15/3/02I found the big increase in insider selling noteworthy, The inside truth is that insiders have been selling shares at a pace that eclipses their purchases by a factor of more than 100!http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=16904628There is only one reason for buying, but a million for selling, many of them with absolutely no reflection on the company in any way shape or form whatsoever.Sure but not when the selling is so wide spread.Personally I'm looking forward to itWell each to his own etc.But I really hope it is avoided.Bargains galore hopefully because we all know that the pendulum usually swings too far before it comes back.Well for all the folks that have still go employment it could well be red light special time.JR
The other thing IMO to watch is inventoryThis chart tends to suggest caution in respect to inventory levels.Look at the massive drop in wholesale prices.http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/CH_infl.HTMTalk about a clearance sale.JR
Well, I spent some time going through the thirty five companies analylised for financial health by stockdoctor for Shares magazine. 17 looked good atm.. 13 Im glad I dont own, and the rest had a question mark. Well, they just said they were healthy, they didn't say buy 'em, did they.! Back to DYOR I guess---- Fat Cassie not impressed.
Well, I spent some time going through the thirty five companies analylised for financial health by stockdoctor for Shares magazine.17 looked good atm.. 13 Im glad I dont own, and the rest had a question mark.CassI haven't seen the Shares article so I can't comment. However, these were presumeably a random pick of companies from the 1300 analysed. I think you have only just started the selection process. Of the total number of companies analysed Stockdoctor then selcts around fifty for what it calls it's Star Stock selection. Some companies although awarded a sound rating will not be performing at all well although the company is financially sound ie Vision Systems.Having selected from the Star stocks I would then apply the TA part of the equation and determine from the charts when to invest.I would think (and from following a number of these Star picks) the proportion of winners to losers would be far higher than the 17/13/5 ratio quoted. RegardsHarmyPS Don't forget that you won't get it right all the time - you only need to be right most of the time to be on the winning side of the house.
Harmy.. http://www.lincolnind.com.au/edit/art/sharesweekly.html ( Just in case you have some time to kill and feel like messin' about..) Cheers.
CassThanks for the link to Lincoln Indicators - I didn't know it existed.I've given quite a bit of thought to your last post where you quoted the results from thirtyfive companies and came to the conclusion that you were "not impressed".Here's the problem for me as I see it.There are over 1300 listed companies on the ASX. Without assistance in order to make an investment decision I would either have to analyse all the companies myself (clearly impossible) gain ideas from boards such as this one, read share magazines, newspapers, use stock screeners etc all of which may well work (and probably do) but it seems to me to be a haphazard and random method without any form of corroboration as to whether my final selection using these methods was sound.Stockdoctor (and others) do much of the initial work for you so that you can then begin your selection yourself from a list of stocks already screened.Going back to the thirtyfive stocks screened by Stockdoctor you said that 17 looked good sound companies, 13 you were glad you didn't own and 5 questionable. Given that these were not buy recommendations from Stockdoctor, if any programme had thrown up 17 good sound companies from which to make a selection from I would think that the programme would be a valuable adjunct to my stock picking. Looked at in this light are you still "not impressed" ???RegardsHarmyPS I suppose it also depends on how many companies you need to comprise a diversified portfolio - I will need around 15 - 20 (I have two at the moment) - where am I going to get this number within a reasonable time frame without some assistance in the form of programmes like Stockdoctor.PPS Shutting down Tuesday - heading for the sunshine !! - regardsto all.
Hi Harmy.. I agree with you. I know exactly what you mean about combing through all the asx-- It's a giant pain and personally I resent the time spent on coming up with a reasonable short list--then more time spent refining that!I am in a pretty much similar situation atm as I now have to knuckle down to getting some longer term investments sorted. I too wish we had an IBD here, but on having a good look at the Stockdoctor website must say I was a little disappointed, not quite what I am looking for. (Stockdoctor seems to be very popular with the trading community though) From what I can glean from the websites my own preference is to go with Concious Investor, though I'm not at all a Buffett fan. Like you I just want a sound list to start with... I'm sick and tired of poring over the Fin Review and sitting in front of the computer all weekend, life's too short and I dont enjoy researching companies,(all stockpicks subject to TA scrutiny of course) I think you will love the weather up here atm. we are coming into the nicest time of the year so you have chosen a great time to relocate. Very best regards,FC;
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