No. of Recommendations: 1
Fine, but your premise was you would retire in 20 years, and thus start withdrawals from your nest egg

Exactly, I start withdrawal in 20 years. I do not take the full amount out in 20 years. Since I am not drawing down my original principal at retirement, just a part of the gains, the money could stay invested for 40 or more years.

I wouldn't buy into something with a 10% chance of failure in 20 years

Nothing's failing in 20 years. There's a 10% chance (if one history is any guide) than one investment will outperform the other in 20 years. Using your reasoning, the bond investment has a 90% chance of "failure" vs the stock.

And you can get 4.3% on CDs today (ING direct), or 5% or more on corporate bonds

And after inflation and taxes (even in an traditional IRA, you have to pay taxes upon withdrawal) my return is zero. My goal isn't a 4% return. It's 30%, and I can only get that with stocks. I want to put my investments to work so I won't have to.

And what happens if you have one of the 10 year periods for the next 10 years that is in the 20% underperforming set

I continue to invest new money. The lower stocks go, the more shares I can get for my dollar. Now, I could be wrong, and stocks could never rise, eventually approaching zero. No one can predict the future. All we can do is guess.

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